40 resultados para Predictive Mean Squared Efficiency

em Repositório Institucional UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista "Julio de Mesquita Filho"


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Genomewide marker information can improve the reliability of breeding value predictions for young selection candidates in genomic selection. However, the cost of genotyping limits its use to elite animals, and how such selective genotyping affects predictive ability of genomic selection models is an open question. We performed a simulation study to evaluate the quality of breeding value predictions for selection candidates based on different selective genotyping strategies in a population undergoing selection. The genome consisted of 10 chromosomes of 100 cM each. After 5,000 generations of random mating with a population size of 100 (50 males and 50 females), generation G(0) (reference population) was produced via a full factorial mating between the 50 males and 50 females from generation 5,000. Different levels of selection intensities (animals with the largest yield deviation value) in G(0) or random sampling (no selection) were used to produce offspring of G(0) generation (G(1)). Five genotyping strategies were used to choose 500 animals in G(0) to be genotyped: 1) Random: randomly selected animals, 2) Top: animals with largest yield deviation values, 3) Bottom: animals with lowest yield deviations values, 4) Extreme: animals with the 250 largest and the 250 lowest yield deviations values, and 5) Less Related: less genetically related animals. The number of individuals in G(0) and G(1) was fixed at 2,500 each, and different levels of heritability were considered (0.10, 0.25, and 0.50). Additionally, all 5 selective genotyping strategies (Random, Top, Bottom, Extreme, and Less Related) were applied to an indicator trait in generation G(0), and the results were evaluated for the target trait in generation G(1), with the genetic correlation between the 2 traits set to 0.50. The 5 genotyping strategies applied to individuals in G(0) (reference population) were compared in terms of their ability to predict the genetic values of the animals in G(1) (selection candidates). Lower correlations between genomic-based estimates of breeding values (GEBV) and true breeding values (TBV) were obtained when using the Bottom strategy. For Random, Extreme, and Less Related strategies, the correlation between GEBV and TBV became slightly larger as selection intensity decreased and was largest when no selection occurred. These 3 strategies were better than the Top approach. In addition, the Extreme, Random, and Less Related strategies had smaller predictive mean squared errors (PMSE) followed by the Top and Bottom methods. Overall, the Extreme genotyping strategy led to the best predictive ability of breeding values, indicating that animals with extreme yield deviations values in a reference population are the most informative when training genomic selection models.

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Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

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The objective of this study was to evaluate the use of probit and logit link functions for the genetic evaluation of early pregnancy using simulated data. The following simulation/analysis structures were constructed: logit/logit, logit/probit, probit/logit, and probit/probit. The percentages of precocious females were 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30% and were adjusted based on a change in the mean of the latent variable. The parametric heritability (h²) was 0.40. Simulation and genetic evaluation were implemented in the R software. Heritability estimates (ĥ²) were compared with h² using the mean squared error. Pearson correlations between predicted and true breeding values and the percentage of coincidence between true and predicted ranking, considering the 10% of bulls with the highest breeding values (TOP10) were calculated. The mean ĥ² values were under- and overestimated for all percentages of precocious females when logit/probit and probit/logit models used. In addition, the mean squared errors of these models were high when compared with those obtained with the probit/probit and logit/logit models. Considering ĥ², probit/probit and logit/logit were also superior to logit/probit and probit/logit, providing values close to the parametric heritability. Logit/probit and probit/logit presented low Pearson correlations, whereas the correlations obtained with probit/probit and logit/logit ranged from moderate to high. With respect to the TOP10 bulls, logit/probit and probit/logit presented much lower percentages than probit/probit and logit/logit. The genetic parameter estimates and predictions of breeding values of the animals obtained with the logit/logit and probit/probit models were similar. In contrast, the results obtained with probit/logit and logit/probit were not satisfactory. There is need to compare the estimation and prediction ability of logit and probit link functions.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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O objetivo deste trabalho foi monitorar o desempenho de remoção de nitrogênio amoniacal no tratamento das águas residuárias da produção intensiva de tilápia nilótica em sistema com recirculação de água. O sistema foi constituído por um sedimentador convencional e um reator aeróbio de leito fluidizado trifásico com circulação, operados com tempos de detenção hidráulica de 176.4 e 11.9 minutos respectivamente. O meio suporte utilizado no reator foi o carvão ativado granular com densidade aparente de 1.64 g/cm3 e tamanho efetivo de 0.34 mm; a concentração do meio suporte no reator foi mantida constante em 80 g/L. A eficiência média de remoção do nitrogênio amoniacal total foi de 41.2%. O sistema avaliado é uma alternativa efetiva para o reuso da água em sistemas de recirculação para aqüicultura. Embora a variabilidade das concentrações do nitrogênio amoniacal afluente cujo valor médio foi de 0.136 mg/L, o efluente do reator conservou as características de qualidade da água estáveis, com concentrações médias de nitrogênio amoniacal de 0.079 mg/L e do oxigênio dissolvido de 6.70 mg/L, recomendáveis para a criação dos peixes e nas faixas de valores permitidos pela legislação Brasileira (Resolução CONAMA No. 357 de março 5 de 2005) para lançamento de efluentes finais nos corpos de água receptores.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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A utilização de funções matemáticas para descrever o crescimento animal é antiga. Elas permitem resumir informações em alguns pontos estratégicos do desenvolvimento ponderal e descrever a evolução do peso em função da idade do animal. Também é possível comparar taxas de crescimento de diferentes indivíduos em estados fisiológicos equivalentes. Os modelos de curvas de crescimento mais utilizados na avicultura são os derivados da função Richards, pois apresentam parâmetros que possibilitam interpretação biológica e portanto podem fornecer subsídios para seleção de uma determinada forma da curva de crescimento em aves. Também pode-se utilizar polinômios segmentados para descrever as mudanças de tendência da curva de crescimento animal. Entretanto, existem importantes fatores de variação para os parâmetros das curvas, como a espécie, o sistema de criação, o sexo e suas interações. A adequação dos modelos pode ser verificada pelos valores do coeficiente de determinação (R2), do quadrado médio do resíduo (QM res), do erro de predição médio (EPm), da facilidade de convergência dos dados e pela possibilidade de interpretação biológica dos parâmetros. Estudos envolvendo modelagem e descrição da curva de crescimento e seus componentes são amplamente discutidos na literatura. Porém, programas de seleção que visem a progressos genéticos para a forma da curva não são mencionados. A importância da avaliação dos parâmetros dos modelos de curvas de crescimento é ainda mais relevante já que os maiores ganhos genéticos para peso estão relacionados com seleção para pesos em idades próximas ao ponto de inflexão. A seleção para precocidade pode ser auxiliada com base nos parâmetros do modelo associados à variáveis que descrevem esta característica genética dos animais. Esses parâmetros estão relacionados a importantes características produtivas e reprodutivas e apresentam magnitudes diferentes, de acordo com a espécie, o sexo e o modelo utilizados na avaliação. Outra metodologia utilizada são os modelos de regressão aleatória, permitindo mudanças graduais nas covariâncias entre idades ao longo do tempo e predizendo variâncias e covariâncias em pontos contidos ao longo da trajetória estudada. A utilização de modelos de regressões aleatórias traz como vantagem a separação da variação da curva de crescimento fenotípica em seus diferentes efeitos genético aditivo e de ambiente permanente individual, mediante a determinação dos coeficientes de regressão aleatórios para esses diferentes efeitos. Além disto, não há necessidade de utilizar fatores de ajuste para a idade. Esta revisão teve por objetivos levantar os principais modelos matemáticos frequentistas utilizados no estudo de curvas de crescimento de aves, com maior ênfase nos empregados com a finalidade de estimar parâmetros genéticos e fenotípicos.

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Depth-integrated primary productivity (PP) estimates obtained from satellite ocean color-based models (SatPPMs) and those generated from biogeochemical ocean general circulation models (BCGCMs) represent a key resource for biogeochemical and ecological studies at global as well as regional scales. Calibration and validation of these PP models are not straightforward, however, and comparative studies show large differences between model estimates. The goal of this paper is to compare PP estimates obtained from 30 different models (21 SatPPMs and 9 BOGCMs) to a tropical Pacific PP database consisting of similar to 1000 C-14 measurements spanning more than a decade (1983-1996). Primary findings include: skill varied significantly between models, but performance was not a function of model complexity or type (i.e. SatPPM vs. BOGCM); nearly all models underestimated the observed variance of PR specifically yielding too few low PP (< 0.2 g Cm-2 d(-1)) values; more than half of the total root-mean-squared model-data differences associated with the satellite-based PP models might be accounted for by uncertainties in the input variables and/or the PP data; and the tropical Pacific database captures a broad scale shift from low biomassnormalized productivity in the 1980s to higher biomass-normalized productivity in the 1990s, which was not successfully captured by any of the models. This latter result suggests that interdecadal and global changes will be a significant challenge for both SatPPMs and BOGCMs. Finally, average root-mean-squared differences between in situ PP data on the equator at 140 degrees W and PP estimates from the satellite-based productivity models were 58% lower than analogous values computed in a previous PP model comparison 6 years ago. The success of these types of comparison exercises is illustrated by the continual modification and improvement of the participating models and the resulting increase in model skill. (C) 2008 Elsevier BY. All rights reserved.

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We study the effects of a repulsive three-body interaction on a system of trapped ultracold atoms in a Bose-Einstein condensed state. The stationary solutions of the corresponding s-wave nonlinear Schrödinger equation suggest a scenario of first-order liquid-gas phase transition in the condensed state up to a critical strength of the effective three-body force. The time evolution of the condensate with feeding process and three-body recombination losses has a different characteristic pattern. Also, the decay time of the dense (liquid) phase is longer than expected due to strong oscillations of the mean-squared radius.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Semiquantitative (Maki) and quantitative (Brun- Buisson) culture techniques were employed in the diagnosis of catheter-related bloodstream infections (CRBSI) in patients who have a short-term central venous catheter (inserted for 30 days). The diagnosis of CRBSI was based on the results of semiquantitative and quantitative culture of material from the removed catheters. Catheter tips (118) from 100 patients were evaluated by both methods. Semiquantitative analysis revealed 34 catheters (28.8%) colonized by ≥15 colonyforming units (cfu), while quantitative cultures (34 catheters, 28.8%) showed the growth of ≥103 cfu/mL. Bacteremia was confirmed in four patients by isolating microorganisms of identical species from both catheters and blood samples. Using the semiquantitative culture technique on short-term central venous catheter tips, we have shown that with a cut-off level of ≥15 cfu, the technique had 100.0% sensitivity, specificity of 68.4%, 25.0% positive predictive value (PPV) and 100.0% negative predictive value (NPV), efficiency of 71.4% and a prevalence of 9.5%. The quantitative method, with a cut-off limit of ≥103 cfu/mL, gave identical values: the sensitivity was 100.0%, specificity 68.4%, positive predictive value (PPV) 25.0%, negative predictive value (NPV) 100.0%, efficiency 71.4% and prevalence 9.5%. We concluded that the semiquantitative and quantitative culture methods, evaluated in parallel, for the first time in Brazil, have similar sensitivity and specificity. Keywords: central venous catheter; semi-quantitative culture; quantitative culture; catheter-related bacteremia.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)