69 resultados para Prediction error method
em Repositório Institucional UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista "Julio de Mesquita Filho"
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In the last decades there was a great development in the study of control systems to attenuate the harmful effect of natural events in great structures, as buildings and bridges. Magnetorheological fluid (MR), that is an intelligent material, has been considered in many proposals of project for these controllers. This work presents the controller design using feedback of states through LMI (Linear Matrix Inequalities) approach. The experimental test were carried out in a structure with two degrees of freedom with a connected shock absorber MR. Experimental tests were realized in order to specify the features of this semi-active controller. In this case, there exist states that are not measurable, so the feedback of the states involves the project of an estimator. The coupling of the MR damper causes a variation in dynamics properties, so an identification methods, based on experimental input/output signal was used to compare with the numerical application. The identification method of Prediction Error Methods - (PEM) was used to find the physical characteristics of the system through realization in modal space of states. This proposal allows the project of a semi-active control, where the main characteristic is the possibility of the variation of the damping coefficient.
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Data were collected and analysed from seven field sites in Australia, Brazil and Colombia on weather conditions and the severity of anthracnose disease of the tropical pasture legume Stylosanthes scabra caused by Colletotrichum gloeosporioides. Disease severity and weather data were analysed using artificial neural network (ANN) models developed using data from some or all field sites in Australia and/or South America to predict severity at other sites. Three series of models were developed using different weather summaries. of these, ANN models with weather for the day of disease assessment and the previous 24 h period had the highest prediction success, and models trained on data from all sites within one continent correctly predicted disease severity in the other continent on more than 75% of days; the overall prediction error was 21.9% for the Australian and 22.1% for the South American model. of the six cross-continent ANN models trained on pooled data for five sites from two continents to predict severity for the remaining sixth site, the model developed without data from Planaltina in Brazil was the most accurate, with >85% prediction success, and the model without Carimagua in Colombia was the least accurate, with only 54% success. In common with multiple regression models, moisture-related variables such as rain, leaf surface wetness and variables that influence moisture availability such as radiation and wind on the day of disease severity assessment or the day before assessment were the most important weather variables in all ANN models. A set of weights from the ANN models was used to calculate the overall risk of anthracnose for the various sites. Sites with high and low anthracnose risk are present in both continents, and weather conditions at centres of diversity in Brazil and Colombia do not appear to be more conducive than conditions in Australia to serious anthracnose development.
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Structural damage identification is basically a nonlinear phenomenon; however, nonlinear procedures are not used currently in practical applications due to the complexity and difficulty for implementation of such techniques. Therefore, the development of techniques that consider the nonlinear behavior of structures for damage detection is a research of major importance since nonlinear dynamical effects can be erroneously treated as damage in the structure by classical metrics. This paper proposes the discrete-time Volterra series for modeling the nonlinear convolution between the input and output signals in a benchmark nonlinear system. The prediction error of the model in an unknown structural condition is compared with the values of the reference structure in healthy condition for evaluating the method of damage detection. Since the Volterra series separate the response of the system in linear and nonlinear contributions, these indexes are used to show the importance of considering the nonlinear behavior of the structure. The paper concludes pointing out the main advantages and drawbacks of this damage detection methodology. © (2013) Trans Tech Publications.
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Pós-graduação em Odontologia - FOA
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The purpose of this research was to compare, by cephalometric analysis (McNamara and Legan & Burstone) the predictive tracings (by methods manual, and by softwares Dentofacial Planner Plus and Dolphin Image) with the post surgical results. Were selected the pre and post surgical lateral telerradiograph (six months after orthognatic surgery) of the 25 long face patients treated with combined orthognatic surgery. Were made the prediction tracings for each method and comparing cephalometrically with the post surgical results. This protocol was repeated once more for the error method evaluation, and the statistical was made by variance analysis and Tuckey overtest. The results show more frequency of the cephalometric values' aproximation of the post surgical results when the manual method (50% of the similarity with the post surgical result), followed of the DFPlus (31,2%) and Dolphin (18,8%) softwares. The experimental condition permits to conclude that the manual method had more precision, although the previsibility of the digital methods was reasonable satisfactory.
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Pós-graduação em Genética e Melhoramento Animal - FCAV
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Additive and nonadditive genetic effects on preweaning weight gain (PWG) of a commercial crossbred population were estimated using different genetic models and estimation methods. The data set consisted of 103,445 records on purebred and crossbred Nelore-Hereford calves raised under pasture conditions on farms located in south, southeast, and middle west Brazilian regions. In addition to breed additive and dominance effects, the models including different epistasis covariables were tested. Models considering joint additive and environment (latitude) by genetic effects interactions were also applied. In a first step, analyses were carried out under animal models. In a second step, preadjusted records were analyzed using ordinary least squares (OLS) and ridge regression (RR). The results reinforced evidence that breed additive and dominance effects are not sufficient to explain the observed variability in preweaning traits of Bos taurus x Bos indicus calves, and that genotype x environment interaction plays an important role in the evaluation of crossbred calves. Data were ill-conditioned to estimate the effects of genotype x environment interactions. Models including these effects presented multicolinearity problems. In this case, RR seemed to be a powerful tool for obtaining more plausible and stable estimates. Estimated prediction error variances and variance inflation factors were drastically reduced, and many effects that were not significant under ordinary least squares became significant under RR. Predictions of PWG based on RR estimates were more acceptable from a biological perspective. In temperate and subtropical regions, calves with intermediate genetic compositions (close to 1/2 Nelore) exhibited greater predicted PWG. In the tropics, predicted PWG increased linearly as genotype got closer to Nelore. ©2006 American Society of Animal Science. All rights reserved.
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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Pós-graduação em Química - IQ
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Pós-graduação em Biometria - IBB
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Pós-graduação em Zootecnia - FCAV
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Currently, mammalian cells are the most utilized hosts for biopharmaceutical production. The culture media for these cell lines include commonly in their composition a pH indicator. Spectroscopic techniques are used for biopharmaceutical process monitoring, among them, UV–Vis spectroscopy has found scarce applications. This work aimed to define artificial neural networks architecture and fit its parameters to predict some nutrients and metabolites, as well as viable cell concentration based on UV–Vis spectral data of mammalian cell bioprocess using phenol red in culture medium. The BHK-21 cell line was used as a mammalian cell model. Off-line spectra of supernatant samples taken from batches performed at different dissolved oxygen concentrations in two bioreactor configurations and with two pH control strategies were used to define two artificial neural networks. According to absolute errors, glutamine (0.13 ± 0.14 mM), glutamate (0.02 ± 0.02 mM), glucose (1.11 ± 1.70 mM), lactate (0.84 ± 0.68 mM) and viable cell concentrations (1.89 105 ± 1.90 105 cell/mL) were suitably predicted. The prediction error averages for monitored variables were lower than those previously reported using different spectroscopic techniques in combination with partial least squares or artificial neural network. The present work allows for UV–VIS sensor development, and decreases cost related to nutrients and metabolite quantifications.