ALGORITHM FOR PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS of DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS WITH DISTRIBUTED GENERATION

In this paper an efficient algorithm for probabilistic analysis of unbalanced three-phase weakly-meshed distribution systems is presented. This algorithm uses the technique of Two-Point Estimate Method for calculating the probabilistic behavior of the system random variables. Additionally, the deterministic analysis of the state variables is performed by means of a Compensation-Based Radial Load Flow (CBRLF). Such load flow efficiently exploits the topological characteristics of the network. To deal with distributed generation, a strategy to incorporate a simplified model of a generator in the CBRLF is proposed. Thus, depending on the type of control and generator operation conditions, the node with distributed generation can be modeled either as a PV or PQ node. To validate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm, the IEEE 37 bus test system is used. The probabilistic results are compared with those obtained using the Monte Carlo method.

Cosmological forecasts from photometric measurements of the angular correlation function

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A probabilistic model for elastic-plastic fracture analysis of plane and axisymmetric structures

This work presents a methodology for elastic-plastic fracture reliability analysis of plane and axisymmetric structures. The structural reliability analysis is accomplished by means of the FORM analytical method. The virtual crack extension technique based on a direct minimization of potencial energy is utililized for the calculation of the energy release rate. Results are presented to illustrate the performance of the adopted methodology.

Probabilistic neural network to predict cracks in taphole mud used in blast furnaces

One of the major problems facing Blast Furnaces is the occurrence of cracks in taphole mud, as the underlying causes are not easily identifiable. The absence of this knowledge makes it difficult the use of conventional techniques for predictability and mitigation. This paper will address the application of Probabilistic Neural Network using the Matlab software as a means to detect and control such cracks. The most relevant BF operational variables were picked through the statistic tool "Principal Component Analysis - PCA." Based upon the selection of these variables a probabilistic neural network was built. A set of BF operational data, consisting of 30 controlling variables, was divided into 2 groups, one of which for network training, and the other one to validate the neural network. The neural network got 98% of the cases right. The results show the effectiveness of this tool for crack prediction in relation to clay intrinsic properties and as a result of the fluctuation in operational variables.

Mathematical decomposition technique applied to the probabilistic power flow problem

In this paper a framework based on the decomposition of the first-order optimality conditions is described and applied to solve the Probabilistic Power Flow (PPF) problem in a coordinated but decentralized way in the context of multi-area power systems. The purpose of the decomposition framework is to solve the problem through a process of solving smaller subproblems, associated with each area of the power system, iteratively. This strategy allows the probabilistic analysis of the variables of interest, in a particular area, without explicit knowledge of network data of the other interconnected areas, being only necessary to exchange border information related to the tie-lines between areas. An efficient method for probabilistic analysis, considering uncertainty in n system loads, is applied. The proposal is to use a particular case of the point estimate method, known as Two-Point Estimate Method (TPM), rather than the traditional approach based on Monte Carlo simulation. The main feature of the TPM is that it only requires resolve 2n power flows for to obtain the behavior of any random variable. An iterative coordination algorithm between areas is also presented. This algorithm solves the Multi-Area PPF problem in a decentralized way, ensures the independent operation of each area and integrates the decomposition framework and the TPM appropriately. The IEEE RTS-96 system is used in order to show the operation and effectiveness of the proposed approach and the Monte Carlo simulations are used to validation of the results. © 2011 IEEE.

Probabilistic analysis of the distributed power generation in weakly meshed distribution systems

This paper presents an approach for probabilistic analysis of unbalanced three-phase weakly meshed distribution systems considering uncertainty in load demand. In order to achieve high computational efficiency this approach uses both an efficient method for probabilistic analysis and a radial power flow. The probabilistic approach used is the well-known Two-Point Estimate Method. Meanwhile, the compensation-based radial power flow is used in order to extract benefits from the topological characteristics of the distribution systems. The generation model proposed allows modeling either PQ or PV bus on the connection point between the network and the distributed generator. In addition allows control of the generator operating conditions, such as the field current and the power delivery at terminals. Results on test with IEEE 37 bus system is given to illustrate the operation and effectiveness of the proposed approach. A Monte Carlo Simulations method is used to validate the results. © 2011 IEEE.

A proposal for reliability evaluation of components on electric power distribution system integrating probabilistic models and fuzzy inference systems

The system reliability depends on the reliability of its components itself. Therefore, it is necessary a methodology capable of inferring the state of functionality of these components to establish reliable indices of quality. Allocation models for maintenance and protective devices, among others, have been used in order to improve the quality and availability of services on electric power distribution systems. This paper proposes a methodology for assessing the reliability of distribution system components in an integrated way, using probabilistic models and fuzzy inference systems to infer about the operation probability of each component. © 2012 IEEE.

NodePM: A Remote Monitoring Alert System for Energy Consumption Using Probabilistic Techniques

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The bias in reversing the Box-Cox transformation in time series forecasting: An empirical study based on neural networks

The Box-Cox transformation is a technique mostly utilized to turn the probabilistic distribution of a time series data into approximately normal. And this helps statistical and neural models to perform more accurate forecastings. However, it introduces a bias when the reversion of the transformation is conducted with the predicted data. The statistical methods to perform a bias-free reversion require, necessarily, the assumption of Gaussianity of the transformed data distribution, which is a rare event in real-world time series. So, the aim of this study was to provide an effective method of removing the bias when the reversion of the Box-Cox transformation is executed. Thus, the developed method is based on a focused time lagged feedforward neural network, which does not require any assumption about the transformed data distribution. Therefore, to evaluate the performance of the proposed method, numerical simulations were conducted and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error, the Theil Inequality Index and the Signal-to-Noise ratio of 20-step-ahead forecasts of 40 time series were compared, and the results obtained indicate that the proposed reversion method is valid and justifies new studies. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A new probabilistic canopy dynamics model (SLCD) that is suitable for evergreen and deciduous forest ecosystems

There are strong uncertainties regarding LAI dynamics in forest ecosystems in response to climate change. While empirical growth & yield models (G&YMs) provide good estimations of tree growth at the stand level on a yearly to decennial scale, process-based models (PBMs) use LAI dynamics as a key variable for enabling the accurate prediction of tree growth over short time scales. Bridging the gap between PBMs and G&YMs could improve the prediction of forest growth and, therefore, carbon, water and nutrient fluxes by combining modeling approaches at the stand level.Our study aimed to estimate monthly changes of leaf area in response to climate variations from sparse measurements of foliage area and biomass. A leaf population probabilistic model (SLCD) was designed to simulate foliage renewal. The leaf population was distributed in monthly cohorts, and the total population size was limited depending on forest age and productivity. Foliage dynamics were driven by a foliation function and the probabilities ruling leaf aging or fall. Their formulation depends on the forest environment.The model was applied to three tree species growing under contrasting climates and soil types. In tropical Brazilian evergreen broadleaf eucalypt plantations, the phenology was described using 8 parameters. A multi-objective evolutionary algorithm method (MOEA) was used to fit the model parameters on litterfall and LAI data over an entire stand rotation. Field measurements from a second eucalypt stand were used to validate the model. Seasonal LAI changes were accurately rendered for both sites (R-2 = 0.898 adjustment, R-2 = 0.698 validation). Litterfall production was correctly simulated (R-2 = 0.562, R-2 = 0.4018 validation) and may be improved by using additional validation data in future work. In two French temperate deciduous forests (beech and oak), we adapted phenological sub-modules of the CASTANEA model to simulate canopy dynamics, and SLCD was validated using LAI measurements. The phenological patterns were simulated with good accuracy in the two cases studied. However, IA/max was not accurately simulated in the beech forest, and further improvement is required.Our probabilistic approach is expected to contribute to improving predictions of LAI dynamics. The model formalism is general and suitable to broadleaf forests for a large range of ecological conditions. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic ictal EEG sources and temporal lobe epilepsy surgical outcome

Objective - For patients with medication refractory medial temporal lobe epilepsy (MTLE), surgery offers the hope of a cure. However, up to 30% of patients with MTLE continue to experience disabling seizures after surgery. The reasons why some patients do not achieve seizure freedom are poorly understood. A promising theory suggests that epileptogenic networks are broadly distributed in surgically refractory MTLE, involving regions beyond the medial temporal lobe. In this retrospective study, we aimed to investigate the distribution of epileptogenic networks in MTLE using Bayesian distributed EEG source analysis from preoperative ictal onset recordings. This analysis has the advantage of generating maps of source probability, which can be subjected to voxel-based statistical analyses.Methods - We compared 10 patients who achieved post-surgical seizure freedom with 10 patients who continued experiencing seizures after surgery. Voxel-based Wilcoxon tests were employed with correction for multiple comparisons.Results - We observed that ictal EEG source intensities were significantly more likely to occur in lateral temporal and posterior medial temporal regions in patients with continued seizures post-surgery.Conclusions - Our findings support the theory of broader spatial distribution of epileptogenic networks at seizure onset in patients with surgically refractory MTLE.

A hybrid method for the probabilistic maximal covering location-allocation problem

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)