Logistic regression analysis of potential prognostic factors for pulmonary thromboembolism

Objective: To identify potential prognostic factors for pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE), establishing a mathematical model to predict the risk for fatal PTE and nonfatal PTE.Method: the reports on 4,813 consecutive autopsies performed from 1979 to 1998 in a Brazilian tertiary referral medical school were reviewed for a retrospective study. From the medical records and autopsy reports of the 512 patients found with macroscopically and/or microscopically,documented PTE, data on demographics, underlying diseases, and probable PTE site of origin were gathered and studied by multiple logistic regression. Thereafter, the jackknife method, a statistical cross-validation technique that uses the original study patients to validate a clinical prediction rule, was performed.Results: the autopsy rate was 50.2%, and PTE prevalence was 10.6%. In 212 cases, PTE was the main cause of death (fatal PTE). The independent variables selected by the regression significance criteria that were more likely to be associated with fatal PTE were age (odds ratio [OR], 1.02; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00 to 1.03), trauma (OR, 8.5; 95% CI, 2.20 to 32.81), right-sided cardiac thrombi (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.02 to 3.77), pelvic vein thrombi (OR, 3.46; 95% CI, 1.19 to 10.05); those most likely to be associated with nonfatal PTE were systemic arterial hypertension (OR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.33 to 0.80), pneumonia (OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.71), and sepsis (OR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.06 to 0.40). The results obtained from the application of the equation in the 512 cases studied using logistic regression analysis suggest the range in which logit p > 0.336 favors the occurrence of fatal PTE, logit p < - 1.142 favors nonfatal PTE, and logit P with intermediate values is not conclusive. The cross-validation prediction misclassification rate was 25.6%, meaning that the prediction equation correctly classified the majority of the cases (74.4%).Conclusions: Although the usefulness of this method in everyday medical practice needs to be confirmed by a prospective study, for the time being our results suggest that concerning prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of PTE, strict attention should be given to those patients presenting the variables that are significant in the logistic regression model.

Logistic regression to estimate the welfare of broiler breeders in relation to environmental and behavioral variables

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Using pegylated interferon alfa-2b and ribavirin to treat chronic hepatitis patients infected with hepatitis C virus genotype 1: Are nonresponders and relapsers different populations?

The combination of pegylated interferon (PEG-INF) and ribavirin is currently the best treatment for chronic hepatitis C, providing a sustained virological response (SVR) in 54%-63% of patients. In patients infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 1, the SVR rate is 42%-52%. To evaluate the treatment efficacy of this drug combination, we conducted an open, prospective study of 58 consecutive treatment-naive patients infected with HCV genotype 1 and treated at a university hospital, comparing those presenting an SVR (SVRs), nonresponders (NRs), and relapsers (RELs). Among the intent-to-treat patients, an end-of-treatment virological response was achieved in 69 % of the sample as a whole and in 52 % of the SVRs. We found that being an SVR was significantly associated with mild fibrosis (p = 0.04) and with undetectable HCV RNA at weeks 12 and 24 of treatment (p < 0.0001). Comparing the SVR and REL groups, we observed that being older than 40 was significantly associated with being a REL (p = 0.04). Being an NR was found to be associated with severe fibrosis and moderate inflammatory infiltrates (portal or periportal). In the polytomous logistic regression, no independent factors were associated with the REL group when compared with the SVR group. We conclude that RELs and NRs differ in comparison with SVRs. The RELs accounted for 17% of the sample. The HCV RNA test results at weeks 12 and 24 of treatment, although independent predictors of non-response (OR: 4.8 and 8.2, respectively), did not differ between SVRs and RELs.