Logistic regression analysis of potential prognostic factors for pulmonary thromboembolism

Objective: To identify potential prognostic factors for pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE), establishing a mathematical model to predict the risk for fatal PTE and nonfatal PTE.Method: the reports on 4,813 consecutive autopsies performed from 1979 to 1998 in a Brazilian tertiary referral medical school were reviewed for a retrospective study. From the medical records and autopsy reports of the 512 patients found with macroscopically and/or microscopically,documented PTE, data on demographics, underlying diseases, and probable PTE site of origin were gathered and studied by multiple logistic regression. Thereafter, the jackknife method, a statistical cross-validation technique that uses the original study patients to validate a clinical prediction rule, was performed.Results: the autopsy rate was 50.2%, and PTE prevalence was 10.6%. In 212 cases, PTE was the main cause of death (fatal PTE). The independent variables selected by the regression significance criteria that were more likely to be associated with fatal PTE were age (odds ratio [OR], 1.02; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00 to 1.03), trauma (OR, 8.5; 95% CI, 2.20 to 32.81), right-sided cardiac thrombi (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.02 to 3.77), pelvic vein thrombi (OR, 3.46; 95% CI, 1.19 to 10.05); those most likely to be associated with nonfatal PTE were systemic arterial hypertension (OR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.33 to 0.80), pneumonia (OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.71), and sepsis (OR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.06 to 0.40). The results obtained from the application of the equation in the 512 cases studied using logistic regression analysis suggest the range in which logit p > 0.336 favors the occurrence of fatal PTE, logit p < - 1.142 favors nonfatal PTE, and logit P with intermediate values is not conclusive. The cross-validation prediction misclassification rate was 25.6%, meaning that the prediction equation correctly classified the majority of the cases (74.4%).Conclusions: Although the usefulness of this method in everyday medical practice needs to be confirmed by a prospective study, for the time being our results suggest that concerning prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of PTE, strict attention should be given to those patients presenting the variables that are significant in the logistic regression model.

Logistic regression to estimate the welfare of broiler breeders in relation to environmental and behavioral variables

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Early nephrology consultation can have an impact on outcome of acute kidney injury patients

Background. Patients who develop acute kidney injury (AKI) in the intensive care unit (ICU) have extremely high rates of mortality and morbidity. The objectives of this study were to compare clinical and laboratory characteristics of AKI patients evaluated and not evaluated by nephrologists in ICU and generate the hypothesis of the relationship between timing of nephrology consultation and outcome.Methods. We explored associations among presence and timing of nephrology consultation with ICU stay and in-ICU mortality in 148 ICU patients with AKI at a Brazilian teaching hospital from July 2008 to May 2010. Multivariable logistic regression was used to adjust confounding and selection bias.Results. AKI incidence was 30% and 52% of these AKI patients were evaluated by nephrologists. At multivariable analysis, AKI patients evaluated by nephrologists showed higher Acute Tubular Necrosis-Index Specific Score and creatinine level, more dialysis indications, lower urine output and longer ICU stay. The mortality rate was similar to AKI patients who were not evaluated. Nephrology consultation was delayed (>= 48 h) in 62.3% (median time to consultation, 4.7 days). Lower serum creatinine levels (P - 0.009) and higher urine output (P = 0.002) were associated with delayed consultation. Delayed consultation was associated with increased ICU mortality (65.4 versus 88.2%, P < 0.001).Conclusions. In AKI, patients evaluated by nephrologists seem to be more seriously ill than those not evaluated and present similar mortality rate. The delayed nephrology consultation can be associated with increased ICU mortality.

Molar Pregnancy in Adolescents

OBJECTIVE: To describe the clinical presentation of hydatidiform molar pregnancy in women under the age of 20 years. In addition, we sought to understand if this adolescent population manifests differences in clinical factors compared to an adult population that may affect outcome.STUDY DESIGN: We used a database from the New England Trophoblastic Disease Center to analyze clinical data from all women followed for molar pregnancy between 1970 and 2009 with complete follow-up information. This population was stratified by age and clinical parameters including presenting signs, molar histology and development of gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN). Univariable and multivariable logistic regression was employed to discern clinical factors that associated with adolescent age. The Partners Human Research Committee approved this study.RESULTS: We identified 1,494 women diagnosed with hydatidiform mole (HM), of which 220 (14.7%) were adolescents defined as age <20 years. The most common presenting clinical signs were vaginal bleeding and an enlarged uterus compared to dates. Median gestational age at diagnosis was 13.4 weeks, not different from that in the adult population. Similarly, no difference in presenting human chorionic gonadotropin was observed between the adult and adolescent populations. Adolescents presented with a significant overrepresentation of complete mole (86% vs. 75%, p < 0.001) compared to adults. Complete mole was associated with a heightened risk of developing GTN (OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.9-3.5), and despite the association of complete mole with young maternal age, univariable analysis showed no difference in the rate of GTN observed between adolescents and adults (24% vs. 30%, p = 0.08). Multivariable analysis controlling for molar histology demonstrated that adolescent age was associated with a decreased risk of GTN (hazard ratio 0.67, 95% CI 0.48 0.93).CONCLUSION: Adolescents account for a substantial proportion of the population with HM. They commonly present with vaginal bleeding. Though this population develops a complete mole with a higher frequency than adults, adolescents appear to have a significantly decreased risk of developing GTN. (J Reprod Med 2012; 57:225-230)

Case-case-control study of risk factors for nasopharyngeal colonization with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in a medical-surgical intensive care unit

Nasopharyngeal colonization with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) often precedes the development of nosocomial infections. In order to identify risk factors for MRSA colonization, we conducted a case-case-control study, enrolling 122 patients admitted to a medical-surgical intensive care unit (ICU). All patients had been screened for nasopharyngeal colonization with S. aureus upon admission and weekly thereafter. Two case-control studies were performed, using as cases patients who acquired colonization with MRSA and methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA), respectively. For both studies, patients in whom colonization was not detected during ICU stay were selected as control subjects. Several potential risk factors were assessed in univariate and multivariable (logistic regression) analysis. MRSA and MSSA were recovered from nasopharyngeal samples from 27 and 10 patients, respectively. Independent risk factors for MRSA colonization were: length-of-stay in the ICU (Odds Ratio [OR]=1.12, 95%Confidence Interval[CI]=1.06-1.19, p<0.001) and use of ciprofloxacin (OR=5.05, 95%CI=1.38-21.90, p=0.015). The use of levofloxacin had a protective effect (OR=0.08, 95%CI=0.01-0.55, p=0.01). Colonization with MSSA was positively associated with central nervous system disease (OR=7.45, 95%CI=1.33-41.74, p=0.02) and negatively associated with age (OR=0.94, 95%CI=0.90-0.99, p=0.01). In conclusion, our study suggests a role for both cross-transmission and selective pressure of antimicrobials in the spread of MRSA.

Nutritional parameters are associated with mortality in acute kidney injury

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to perform a nutritional assessment of acute kidney injury patients and to identify the relationship between nutritional markers and outcomes.METHOD: This was a prospective and observational study. Patients who were hospitalized at the Hospital of Botucatu School of Medicine were evaluated between January 2009 and December 2011. We evaluated a total of 133 patients with a clinical diagnosis of acute kidney injury and a clinical presentation suggestive of acute tubular necrosis. We explored the associations between clinical, laboratory and nutritional markers and in hospital mortality. Multivariable logistic regression was used to adjust for confounding and selection bias.RESULTS: Non-survivor patients were older (67 +/- 14 vs. 59 +/- 16 years) and exhibited a higher prevalence of sepsis (57.1 vs. 21.4%) and higher Acute Tubular Necrosis-Individual Severity Scores (0.60 +/- 0.22 vs. 0.41 +/- 0.21) than did survivor patients. Based on the multivariable analysis, laboratorial parameters such as blood urea nitrogen and C-reactive protein were associated with a higher risk of death (OR: 1.013, p = 0.0052; OR: 1.050, p = 0.01, respectively), and nutritional parameters such as low calorie intake, higher levels of edema, lower resistance based on bioelectrical impedance analysis and a more negative nitrogen balance were significantly associated with a higher risk of death (OR: 0.950, p = 0.01; OR: 1.138, p = 0.03; OR: 0.995, p = 0.03; OR: 0.934, p = 0.04, respectively).CONCLUSIONS: In acute kidney injury patients, a nutritional assessment seems to identify nutritional markers that are associated with outcome. In this study, a low caloric intake, higher C-reactive protein levels, the presence of edema, a lower resistance measured during a bioelectrical impedance analysis and a lower nitrogen balance were significantly associated with risk of death in acute kidney injury patients.

Bullying e má oclusão relacionados a autoestima e qualidade de vida em adolescentes

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Risk factors for Hospital-Acquired Pneumonia in nonventilated adults

Although most recent publications focus on Ventilator-associated Pneumonia, Non-Ventilator-associated Hospital-acquired pneumonia (NVHAP) is still worrisome. We studied risk factors for NVHAP among patients admitted to a small teaching hospital. Sixty-six NVHAP case patients and 66 controls admitted to the hospital from November 2005 through November 2006 were enrolled in a case-control study. Variables under investigation included: demographic characteristics, comorbidities, procedures, invasive devices and use of medications (Sedatives, Antacids, Steroids and Antimicrobials). Univariate and multivariable analysis (hierarchical models of logistic regression) were performed. The incidence of NVHAP in our hospital was 0.68% (1.02 per 1,000 patients-day). Results from multivariable analysis identified risk factors for NVHAP: age (Odds Ratio[OR]=1.03, 95% Confidence Interval[CI]=1.01-1.05, p=0.002), use of Antacids (OR=5.29, 95%CI=1.89-4.79, p=0.001) and Central Nervous System disease (OR=3.13, 95%CI=1.24-7.93, p=0.02). Although our findings are coherent with previous reports, the association of Antacids with NVHAP recalls a controversial issue in the physiopathology of Hospital-Acquired Pneumonia, with possible implications for preventive strategies.

Transtornos mentais comuns e uso de psicofármacos: impacto das condições socioeconômicas

OBJETIVO: Avaliar a influência das condições socioeconômicas na associação entre transtornos mentais comuns, uso de serviços de saúde e de psicofármacos. MÉTODOS: Estudo transversal populacional conduzido na cidade de Botucatu, SP, com amostragem probabilística, estratificada e por conglomerados. Foram realizadas entrevistas domiciliares com 1.023 sujeitos de 15 anos ou mais de idade, entre 2001 e 2002. Transtorno mental comum foi avaliado utilizando o Self Reporting Questionnaire (SRQ-20). O uso de serviços foi investigado com relação à quinzena anterior à entrevista e uso de psicotrópicos, nos três dias anteriores. Utilizou-se regressão logística para análise multivariável, considerando o efeito do desenho. RESULTADOS: No total da amostra, 13,4% (IC 95%: 10,7;16,0) procuraram serviços de saúde na quinzena anterior à entrevista. A procura de serviços de saúde se associou ao sexo feminino (OR=2,0) e à presença de transtorno mental comum (OR=2,2). Na amostra 13,3% (IC 95%: 9,2;17,5) referiram ter usado ao menos um psicotrópico, destacando-se os antidepressivos (5,0%) e os benzodiazepínicos (3,1%). Na análise multivariável, sexo feminino e presença de transtorno mental comum mantiveram-se associados ao uso de benzodiazepínicos. Renda per capita mostrou-se direta e independentemente associada ao uso de psicofármacos, conforme aumento da renda. CONCLUSÕES: Menor renda associou-se à presença de transtorno mental comum, mas não ao uso de psicotrópicos. A associação entre transtorno mental comum e uso de psicotrópicos e maior renda reforça a hipótese da existência de iniqüidades no acesso à assistência médica na população estudada.

Walking for leisure among adults from three Brazilian cities and its association with perceived environment attributes and personal factors

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Carcinogênese de cabeça e pescoço: impacto do polimorfismo MTHFD1 G1958A

OBJETIVO: Investigar o polimorfismo MTHFD1 G1958A envolvido no metabolismo do folato no risco para o câncer de cabeça e pescoço e verificar a associação entre esse polimorfismo com fatores de risco e características clínico-histopatológicas. MÉTODOS: Estudo retrospectivo que avaliou o polimorfismo MTHFD1 G1958A em 694 indivíduos (240 pacientes e 454 controles), por meio da técnica de análise de polimorfismo de comprimento de fragmento de restrição. Para análise estatística foram utilizados os testes de regressão logística múltipla e qui-quadrado. RESULTADOS: Tabagismo e idade superior a 42 anos foram preditores da doença (p < 0,05). Os genótipos MTHFD1 1958GA ou AA foram associados ao tabagismo (p = 0,04) e etilismo (p = 0,03) e estão presentes em maior proporção em tumores com estádios mais avançados (p = 0,04) e em pacientes com menor sobrevida (p = 0,03). CONCLUSÃO: A presença do polimorfismo MTHFD1 G1958A associada aos hábitos tabagista e etilista aumenta o risco para desenvolvimento de câncer de cabeça e pescoço.

Head and neck carcinogenesis: Impact of MTHFD1 G1958A polymorphism

Objective: To investigate the MTHFD1 G1958A polymorphism involved in the folate metabolism as a risk for head and neck cancer, and to find the association of the polymorphism with the risk factors and clinical and histopathological characteristics. Methods: Retrospective study investigating MTHFD1 G1958A polymorphism in 694 subjects (240 patients in the Case Group and 454 in the Control Group) by Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism (RFLP) Analysis. Multiple logistic regression and chi-square tests were used in the statistical analysis. Results: Multivariable analysis showed that smoking and age over 42 years were disease predictors (p < 0.05). MTHFD1 1958GA or AA genotypes were associated with smoking (p = 0.04) and alcoholism (p = 0.03) and were more ofen found in more advanced stage tumors (p = 0.04) and in patients with a shorter survival (p = 0.03). Conclusion: Te presence of MTHFD1 G1948A polymorphism associated with smoking and alcoholism raises the head and neck cancer risk.

Risk factors for low birth weight in Botucatu city, SP state, Brazil: A study conducted in the public health system from 2004 to 2008

Background: Low birth weight (LBW), defined as birth weight less than 2500 g, has a complex etiology and may be a result of premature interruption of pregnancy or intrauterine growth restriction. The objective of this study was to provide information on determinants of LBW and contribute to the understanding of the problem in Brazil. Methods. A case-control study was conducted in Botucatu city, SP state, Brazil. The study population consisted of 2 groups with 860 newborns in each group as follows: low weight newborns (LWNB) and a control group (weight ≤ 2500 g). Secondary data from 2004 to 2008 were collected using the Live Birth Certificate (LBC) and records from medical charts of pregnant women in Basic Health Units (BHU) and in the Public University Hospital (UH). Variables were as follows: maternal socio-demographic characteristics, pregnancy and birth conditions including quality of prenatal care according to 3 criteria. They were based on parameters established by the Ministry of Health (MH), one of them, the modified Kessner Index. The multivariable analysis by logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between variables and LBW. Results: According to the analysis, the factors associated with LBW were as follows: prematurity (OR = 56.98, 95% CI 29.52-109.95), twin pregnancy (OR = 20.00, 95% CI 6.25-100.00), maternal smoking (OR = 2.12, 95% CI 1.33-3.45), maternal malnourishment (OR = 2.30, 95% CI 1.08-5.00), maternal obesity (OR = 2.30, 95% IC 1.18-4.48), weight gain during pregnancy less than 5 kg (OR = 2.63, 95% CI 1.35-5.00) and weight gain during pregnancy more than 15 kg (OR = 2.26, 95% CI 1.16-4.41). Adequacy of prenatal care visits adjusted to gestational age was less frequent in the LBW group than in the control group (68.7% vs. 80.5%, x 2 p < 0.001). According to the modified Kessner Index, 64.4% of prenatal visits in the LWNB group were adequate. Conclusion: LWNB are a quite heterogeneous group of infants concerning their determinants and prevention actions against LBW and the follow-up of these infants have also been very complex. Therefore, improvement in the quality of care provided should be given priority through concrete actions for prevention of LBW. © 2012 Fonseca et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Associação entre o nível de atividade física habitual e a prática de atividade física realizada na infância em escolares do ensino fundamental de João Pessoa - PB

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Incidência e determinantes de infecção de sítio cirúrgico em hospitais de pequeno porte nas divisões regionais de saúde de Araçatuba, Bauru e Botucatu

Pós-graduação em Doenças Tropicais - FMB