A Multi-Stage Stochastic Non-Linear Model for Reactive Power Planning Under Contingencies

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Edge detection and noise removal by use of a partial differential equation with automatic selection of parameters

This work deals with noise removal by the use of an edge preserving method whose parameters are automatically estimated, for any application, by simply providing information about the standard deviation noise level we wish to eliminate. The desired noiseless image u(x), in a Partial Differential Equation based model, can be viewed as the solution of an evolutionary differential equation u t(x) = F(u xx, u x, u, x, t) which means that the true solution will be reached when t ® ¥. In practical applications we should stop the time ''t'' at some moment during this evolutionary process. This work presents a sufficient condition, related to time t and to the standard deviation s of the noise we desire to remove, which gives a constant T such that u(x, T) is a good approximation of u(x). The approach here focused on edge preservation during the noise elimination process as its main characteristic. The balance between edge points and interior points is carried out by a function g which depends on the initial noisy image u(x, t0), the standard deviation of the noise we want to eliminate and a constant k. The k parameter estimation is also presented in this work therefore making, the proposed model automatic. The model's feasibility and the choice of the optimal time scale is evident through out the various experimental results.

Multi-trait and random regression mature weight heritability and breeding value estimates in Nelore cattle

Mature weight breeding values were estimated using a multi-trait animal model (MM) and a random regression animal model (RRM). Data consisted of 82 064 weight records from 8 145 animals, recorded from birth to eight years of age. Weights at standard ages were considered in the MM. All models included contemporary groups as fixed effects, and age of dam (linear and quadratic effects) and animal age as covariates. In the RRM, mean trends were modelled through a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of animal age and genetic maternal and direct and maternal permanent environmental effects were also included as random. Legendre polynomials of orders 4, 3, 6 and 3 were used for animal and maternal genetic and permanent environmental effects, respectively, considering five classes of residual variances. Mature weight (five years) direct heritability estimates were 0.35 (MM) and 0.38 (RRM). Rank correlation between sires' breeding values estimated by MM and RRM was 0.82. However, selecting the top 2% (12) or 10% (62) of the young sires based on the MM predicted breeding values, respectively 71% and 80% of the same sires would be selected if RRM estimates were used instead. The RRM modelled the changes in the (co)variances with age adequately and larger breeding value accuracies can be expected using this model. © South African Society for Animal Science.

Tide-topography interaction along the eastern Brazilian shelf

In the Tropics, continental shelves governed by western boundary currents are considered to be among the least productive ocean margins in the world, unless eddy-induced shelf-edge upwelling becomes significant. The eastern Brazilian shelf in the Southwest Atlantic is one of these, and since the slight nutrient input from continental sources is extremely oligotrophic. It is characterized by complex bathymetry with the presence of shallow banks and seamounts. In this work, a full three-dimensional nonlinear primitive equation ocean model is used to demonstrate that the interaction of tidal currents and the bottom topography of the east Brazil continental shelf is capable of producing local upwelling of South Atlantic Central Water, bringing nutrients up from deep waters to the surface layer. Such upper layer enrichment is found to be of significance in increasing local primary productivity. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetic parameters of total milk yield and factors describing the shape of lactation curve in dairy buffaloes

The objective of this study was to apply factor analysis to describe lactation curves in dairy buffaloes in order to estimate the phenotypic and genetic association between common latent factors and cumulative milk yield. A total of 31 257 monthly test-day milk yield records from buffaloes belonging to herds located in the state of São Paulo were used to estimate two common latent factors, which were then analysed in a multi-trait animal model for estimating genetic parameters. Estimates of (co)variance components for the two common latent factors and cumulated 270-d milk yield were obtained by Bayesian inference using a multiple trait animal model. Contemporary group, number of milkings per day (two levels) and age of buffalo cow at calving (linear and quadratic) as covariate were included in the model as fixed effects. The additive genetic, permanent environmental and residual effects were included as random effects. The first common latent factor (F1) was associated with persistency of lactation and the second common latent factor (F2) with the level of production in early lactation. Heritability estimates for Fl and F2 were 0.12 and 0.07, respectively. Genetic correlation estimates between El and F2 with cumulative milk yield were positive and moderate (0.63 and 0.52). Multivariate statistics employing factor analysis allowed the extraction of two variables (latent factors) that described the shape of the lactation curve. It is expected that the response to selection to increase lactation persistency is higher than the response obtained from selecting animals to increase lactation peak. Selection for higher total milk yield would result in a favourable correlated response to increase the level of production in early lactation and the lactation persistency.

Strategic capacitor placement in distribution systems by minimisation of harmonics amplification because of resonance

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

On an Optimal Linear Control of a Chaotic Non-Ideal Duffing System

In this work, we use a nonlinear control based on Optimal Linear Control. We used as mathematical model a Duffing equation to model a supporting structure for an unbalanced rotating machine with limited power (non-ideal motor). Numerical simulations are performed for a set control parameter (depending on the voltage of the motor, that is, in the static and dynamic characteristic of the motor) The interaction of the non-ideal excitation with the structure may lead to the occurrence of interesting phenomena during the forward passage through the several resonance states of the system. Chaotic behavior is obtained for values of the parameters. Then, the proposed control strategy is applied in order to regulate the chaotic behavior, in order to obtain a periodic orbit and to decrease its amplitude. Both methodologies were used in complete agreement between them. The purpose of the paper is to give suggestions and recommendations to designers and engineers on how to drive this kind of system through resonance.

Eventos adversos após vacinação contra influenza em idosos, Distrito de Campinas, SP, 2000

Há poucos dados sistematizados sobre eventos adversos da vacina contra influenza no Brasil. Este trabalho visou identificar estes eventos em população acima de 60 anos que compareceu à Campanha Nacional de Vacinação do Idoso, em Distrito de Campinas, SP, em 2000. Foi realizada entrevista para relato de sintomas gerais e locais, com nexo temporal após a aplicação do imunobiológico, em amostra aleatória sistemática da população (n=206). Registraram-se 20,38% (IC 14,87-25,88) dos indivíduos com um ou mais sintomas, sendo a dor no local da vacina, a mais freqüente 12,6% (IC 8,09-17,15). Ajustou-se um modelo de regressão logística múltipla, tendo como variável dependente, a ocorrência de pelo menos um evento adverso. A variável independente que se mostrou associada às reações adversas foi o sexo (feminino) (OR=5,89 e IC 2,08-16,68). Os achados deste estudo reafirmam a pequena reatogenicidade da vacina contra a influenza.

Soil loss risk and habitat quality in streams of a meso-scale river basin

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Dissipative three-wave structures in stimulated backscattering. I. A subluminous solitary attractor

We present a solitary solution of the three-wave nonlinear partial differential equation (PDE) model - governing resonant space-time stimulated Brillouin or Raman backscattering - in the presence of a cw pump and dissipative material and Stokes waves. The study is motivated by pulse formation in optical fiber experiments. As a result of the instability any initial bounded Stokes signal is amplified and evolves to a subluminous backscattered Stokes pulse whose shape and velocity are uniquely determined by the damping coefficients and the cw-pump level. This asymptotically stable solitary three-wave structure is an attractor for any initial conditions in a compact support, in contrast to the known superluminous dissipative soliton solution which calls for an unbounded support. The linear asymptotic theory based on the Kolmogorov-Petrovskii-Piskunov assertion allows us to determine analytically the wave-front slope and the subluminous velocity, which are in remarkable agreement with the numerical computation of the nonlinear PDE model when the dynamics attains the asymptotic steady regime. © 1997 The American Physical Society.

Modelagem em escala regional da erosão relacionada com a evolução da cobertura do solo: Um estudo de caso no sudeste do Brasil

Accelerated soil erosion is, at present, one of the most widespread environmental problems in the world. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have become an essential tool in soil erosion studies and consequently in the development of appropriate soil conservation strategies. The objective of this paper was to assess the degree of soil erosion associated with land cover dynamics through GIS analysis and to validate the modeling with indicators of soil erosion. Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) model, GIS technology and ground-truth dataset (erosion indicators) were employed to elaborate the soil loss maps for four dates at Sorocaba Municipality (SP, Brazil). It was verified that, although the predicted soil loss rate is normally small along the study area, such rate is significantly greater than the soil formation rate. This shows a non-sustainable situation of soil and land cover management. Unplanned urban expansion seems be the main driving force that acts in increasing the erosion risk/occurrence along the study area.

Análise Genética de Características Reprodutivas Na Raça Brahman

Aiming to establish selection criteria for the Brahman cattle in Brazil, the objective of this paper was to estimate genetic and environmental parameters for birth weight (BW), gestation length (GL) and scrotal circumference at 365 (SC365), 455 (SC455) and 550 (SC 550) days of age, and relative efficiency of indirect versus direct selection for these traits. Data were obtained from 15 851 animals belonging to 16 herds in six states, enrolled in a genetic breeding program. (Co)variance and heritability coefficients and genetic and environmental correlations between traits were estimated by restricted maximum likelihood (REML) under a multi trait animal model. The model included as fixed effects the contemporary group and the age of cow at calving as a covariate (linear and quadratic), and as random the direct genetic, the permanent environmental and residual effects. For BW and GL it was also considered the maternal genetic effect as random. Estimates of direct heritabilities were 0.36, 0.29, 0.55, 0.43 and 0.40 for BW, GL, SC365, SC455 and SC550, respectively. Genetic correlations between BW and GL, GL and SC365, GL and SC455, GL and SC550, SC365 and SC455, SC365 and SC550 and SC455 and SC550, were respectively 0.06, 0.13, 0.20, 0.13, 0.96, 0.98 and 0.99. The heritabilities estimates for all traits indicated these show enough additive genetic variability to respond favorably to selection. For sexual precocity, the best option would be SC365, due to the high value of heritability and to indirect selection at this age being more efficient than direct selection for PE455.

Sustainable urban energy planning: The case study of a tropical city

The urbanization of modern societies has imposed to the planners and decision-makers a more precise attention to facts not considered before. Several aspects, such as the energy availability and the deleterious effect of pollution on the populations, must be considered in the policy decisions of cities urbanization. The current paradigm presents centralized power stations supplying a city, and a combination of technologies may compose the energy mix of a country, such as thermal power plants, hydroelectric plants, wind systems and solar-based systems, with their corresponding emission pattern. A goal programming multi-objective optimization model is presented for the electric expansion analysis of a tropical city, and also a case study for the city of Guaratinguetá, Brazil, considering a particular wind and solar radiation patterns established according to actual data and modeled via the time series analysis method. Scenarios are proposed and the results of single environmental objective, single economic objective and goal programming multi-objective modeling are discussed. The consequences of each dispatch decision, which considers pollutant emission exportation to the neighborhood or the need of supplementing electricity by purchasing it from the public electric power grid, are discussed. The results revealed energetic dispatch for the alternatives studied and the optimum environmental and economic solution was obtained. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Genetic parameters for test-day milk yield, 305-day milk yield, and lactation length in Guzerat cows

Milk production in tropical environments requires the use of crossbreeding systems including breeds well adapted to harsh conditions, but with lower productivities when compared to specialized breeds. Besides the genetic improvement for milk production, lactation lengths also need to be studied for most of these breeds. Accordingly, genetic parameters were estimated for 305-day cumulative milk yield (MY305), test-day milk yield (TDMY), and lactation length (LL) using information from the first lactations of 2816 Guzerat cows selected for milk production in 28 herds in Brazil. Contemporary groups were defined as herd, year and season of the test for TDMY, and as herd, year and season of calving for MY305 and LL. Variance components were estimated with the restricted maximum likelihood method under a multi-trait animal model. Heritabilities estimated for TDMY ranged from 0.16 to 0.24, and were 0.24 and 0.12 for MY305 and LL, respectively. Genetic correlations were high and positive, ranging from 0.51 to 0.99 among TDMY records, from 0.81 to 0.98 between each TDMY and MY305, and from 0.71 to 0.94 between each TDMY and LL. Genetic parameters obtained in this study indicated the possibility of using test-day records for the prediction of breeding values for milk yield in this population of the Guzerat breed. The use of TDMY as selection criteria would result in indirect gains in MY305 and LL. However, the highest response to selection for MY305 would be obtained by direct selection for this trait. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

Métodos analíticos, numéricos e experimentais para o cálculo de ondas de impacto em meios líquidos

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)