Analytical and Monte Carlo approaches to evaluate probability distributions of interruption duration

Regulatory authorities in many countries, in order to maintain an acceptable balance between appropriate customer service qualities and costs, are introducing a performance-based regulation. These regulations impose penalties-and, in some cases, rewards-that introduce a component of financial risk to an electric power utility due to the uncertainty associated with preserving a specific level of system reliability. In Brazil, for instance, one of the reliability indices receiving special attention by the utilities is the maximum continuous interruption duration (MCID) per customer.This parameter is responsible for the majority of penalties in many electric distribution utilities. This paper describes analytical and Monte Carlo simulation approaches to evaluate probability distributions of interruption duration indices. More emphasis will be given to the development of an analytical method to assess the probability distribution associated with the parameter MCID and the correspond ng penalties. Case studies on a simple distribution network and on a real Brazilian distribution system are presented and discussed.

Chronological Monte Carlo-based assessment of distribution system reliability

Regulatory authorities in many countries, in order to maintain an acceptable balance between appropriate customer service qualities and costs, are introducing a performance-based regulation. These regulations impose penalties, and in some cases rewards, which introduce a component of financial risk to an electric power utility due to the uncertainty associated with preserving a specific level of system reliability. In Brazil, for instance, one of the reliability indices receiving special attention by the utilities is the Maximum Continuous Interruption Duration per customer (MCID). This paper describes a chronological Monte Carlo simulation approach to evaluate probability distributions of reliability indices, including the MCID, and the corresponding penalties. In order to get the desired efficiency, modern computational techniques are used for modeling (UML -Unified Modeling Language) as well as for programming (Object- Oriented Programming). Case studies on a simple distribution network and on real Brazilian distribution systems are presented and discussed. © Copyright KTH 2006.

Limiar anaeróbio e velocidade crítica determinada com diferentes distâncias em nadadores de 10 a 15 anos: relações com a performance e a resposta do lactato sanguíneo em testes de endurance

O objetivo deste estudo foi comparar a velocidade crítica (VC) determinada através de diferentes distâncias com o limiar anaeróbio (LAn) e as velocidades máximas mantidas em testes de 20 (V20) e 30 (V30) minutos na natação, verificando se a idade cronológica em jovens nadadores interfere nessas relações. Participaram do estudo 31 nadadores (17 meninas e 14 meninos) divididos segundo a idade cronológica em dois grupos: 10 a 12 anos e 13 a 15 anos. O LAn foi determinado como sendo a velocidade correspondente a 4mM de lactato sanguíneo. A VC1 (25/50/100m), VC2 (100/200/400m) e a VC3 (50/100/200m) foram calculadas através do coeficiente angular da reta de regressão linear entre as distâncias e seus respectivos tempos. As V20 e V30 foram determinadas através de três a seis repetições, com coletas de sangue no 10º minuto e ao final do tiro. Para o grupo de 10 a 12 anos, a VC1 (m/s) (0,98 ± 0,17) e o LAn (0,97 ± 0,12) não foram diferentes entre si, sendo maiores do que a VC2 (0,92 ± 0,16), VC3 (0,89 ± 0,18), V20 (0,92 ± 0,11) e V30 (0,90 ± 0,11). Para o grupo de 13 a 15 anos, a VC1 (m/s)(1,11 ± 0,11) foi maior do que o LAn (1,02 ± 0,07), V20 (0,99 ± 0,09), V30 (0,97 ± 0,09), VC2 (0,98 ± 0,11) e VC3 (1,00 ± 0,11). Pode-se concluir que a distância utilizada na determinação da VC interfere no valor obtido, independente da idade cronológica. A VC determinada com distâncias entre 50 e 400m pode ser utilizada na avaliação da capacidade aeróbia de crianças e adolescentes, substituindo os testes contínuos máximos com durações próximas a 20 ou 30 minutos.

Otimização de planos de manutenções de componentes de sistemas de distribuição de energia elétrica centrados em confiabilidade

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Dogs can detect scat samples more efficiently than humans: an experiment in a continuous Atlantic Forest remnant

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Continuous peritoneal dialysis compared with daily hemodialysis in patients with acute kidney injury

Background: In some parts of the world, peritoneal dialysis is widely used for renal replacement therapy (RRT) in acute kidney injury (AKI), despite concerns about its inadequacy. It has been replaced in recent years by hemodialysis and, most recently, by continuous venovenous therapies. We performed a prospective study to determine the effect of continuous peritoneal dialysis (CPD), as compared with daily hemodialysis (dHD), on survival among patients with AKI.Methods: A total of 120 patients with acute tubular necrosis (ATN) were assigned to receive CPD or dHD in a tertiary-care university hospital. The primary endpoint was hospital survival rate; renal function recovery and metabolic, acid-base, and fluid controls were secondary endpoints.Results: of the 120 patients, 60 were treated with CPD (G1) and 60 with dHD (G2). The two groups were similar at the start of RRT with respect to age (64.2 +/- 19.8 years vs 62.5 +/- 21.2 years), sex (men: 72% vs 66%), sepsis (42% vs 47%), shock (61% vs 63%), severity of AKI [Acute Tubular Necrosis Individual Severity Score (ATNISS): 0.68 +/- 0.2 vs 0.66 +/- 0.22; Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II: 26.9 +/- 8.9 vs 24.1 +/- 8.2], pre-dialysis blood urea nitrogen [BUN (116.4 +/- 33.6 mg/dL vs 112.6 +/- 36.8 mg/dL)], and creatinine (5.85 +/- 1.9 mg/dL vs 5.95 +/- 1.4 mg/dL). In G1, weekly delivered Kt/V was 3.59 +/- 0.61, and in G2, it was 4.76 +/- 0.65 (p < 0.01). The two groups were similar in metabolic and acid-base control (after 4 sessions, BUN < 55 mg/dL: 46 +/- 18.7 mg/dL vs 52 +/- 18.2 mg/dL; pH: 7.41 vs 7.38; bicarbonate: 22.8 +/- 8.9 mEq/L vs 22.2 +/- 7.1 mEq/L). Duration of therapy was longer in G2 (5.5 days vs 7.5 days; p = 0.02). Despite the delivery of different dialysis methods and doses, the survival rate did not differ between the groups (58% in G1 vs 52% in G2), and recovery of renal function was similar (28% vs 26%).Conclusion: High doses of CPD provided appropriate metabolic and pH control, with a rate of survival and recovery of renal function similar to that seen with dHD. Therefore, CPD can be considered an alternative to other forms of RRT in AKI.

Estimativa do grau de infestação numa pastagem de Panicum maximum Jacq

Um piquete de capim-colonião (Panicum maximum Jacq) submetido a pastoreio contínuo e a roçadas periódicas revelou, seis anos após o plantio, elevado grau de infestação por outras plantas, destacando-se entre elas a grama-batatais (Paspalum notatum Flügge) que apresentou 85% de frequência e 20,9% de biomassa epígea seca relativa. As dicotiledóneas, em conjunto, apresentaram frequência de 95% e biomassa relativa de 38,7% mas a sua contribuição específica foi muito reduzida. O capim-colonião, por sua vez, apesar da frequência de 95%, apresentou apenas 32,2% de biomassa relativa (diminuição de 67,8%). Estas profundas alterações da flora e da vegetação podem ser atribuidas, em grande parte, a dois fatores: a) ação seletiva da roçadeira; b) preferências alimentares e disseminação endozoócora da gramabatatais pelos bovinos.

Effects of prolonged running performed at the intensity corresponding to the onset of blood lactate accumulation, on maximum isokinetic strength in active non-athletic individuals

OBJETIVO: O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar os efeitos da corrida contínua prolongada realizada na intensidade correspondente ao início do acúmulo do lactato no sangue (OBLA) sobre o torque máximo dos extensores do joelho analisado em diferentes tipos de contração e velocidade de movimento em indivíduos ativos. MÉTODO: Oito indivíduos do gênero masculino (23,4 ± 2,1 anos; 75,8 ± 8,7 kg; 171,1 ± 4,5 cm) participaram deste estudo. Primeiramente, os sujeitos realizaram um teste incremental até a exaustão voluntária para determinar a velocidade correspondente ao OBLA. Posteriormente, os sujeitos retornaram ao laboratório em duas ocasiões, separadas por pelo menos sete dias, para realizar 5 contrações isocinéticas máximas para os extensores do joelho em duas velocidades angulares (60 e 180º.s-1) sob as condições excêntrica (PTE) e concêntrica (PTC). Uma sessão foi realizada após um período de aquecimento padronizado (5 min a 50%VO2max). A outra sessão foi realizada após uma corrida contínua no OBLA até a exaustão voluntária. Essas sessões foram executadas em ordem randômica. RESULTADOS: Houve redução significante do PTC somente a 60º.s-1 (259,0 ± 46,4 e 244,0 ± 41,4 N.m). Entretanto, a redução do PTE foi significante a 60º.s-1 (337,3 ± 43,2 e 321,7 ± 60,0 N.m) e 180º.s-1 (346,1 ± 38,0 e 319,7 ± 43,6 N.m). As reduções relativas da força após o exercício de corrida foram significantemente diferentes entre os tipos de contração somente a 180º.s-1. CONCLUSÃO: Podemos concluir que, em indivíduos ativos, a redução no torque máximo após uma corrida contínua prolongada no OBLA pode ser dependente do tipo de contração e da velocidade angular.

Resposta da frequência cardíaca durante sessão de treinamento de karatê

A prática do karatê pode promover adaptações benéficas sobre os componentes da aptidão física relacionada com a saúde. Dentre esses componentes, o consumo máximo de oxigênio (VO2max) é um importante indicador de aptidão cardiorrespiratória, como também forte preditor de risco de morte por doença cardiovascular. Estudos anteriores avaliaram as respostas da Frequência Cardíaca na modalidade de karatê durante protocolos elaborados pelos pesquisadores que simularam o treinamento. No entanto, esses resultados devem ser interpretados com cautela, uma vez que protocolos podem comprometer a validade ecológica do comportamento da FC. Dessa forma, o objetivo deste estudo foi, através do monitoramento da FC, investigar a distribuição da intensidade durante uma sessão de treinamento de karatê (ST) com a validade ecológica preservada. Nove atletas (M (DP) = 22 (5,2) anos; 60,3 (12,9) kg; 170,0 (0,10) cm; 11,6 (5,7) % gordura) realizaram teste incremental máximo (T I) e uma ST, com monitoramento contínuo da FC, distribuída posteriormente conforme método proposto por Edwards. O tempo médio de duração da ST foi de 91,3 (11,9) minutos (IC95% = 82,0 - 100,5). Os valores de FC média e máxima da ST foram equivalentes a 72% (IC95% = 66-78%) e 94% (IC95% = 89-99%) da FC máxima alcançada durante T I (FCmax), respectivamente. Durante 79,9% (IC95% = 65,7-94,1%) do tempo total da ST, os karatecas permaneceram em uma intensidade superior a 60% da FCmax. Deste modo, conclui-se que a intensidade da ST de karatê atende às recomendações do ACSM com relação à intensidade, duração e frequência semanal, apresentando-se como uma interessante alternativa de exercícios físicos para promoção da aptidão cardiorrespiratória.

Effect of temperature and leaf wetness duration on infection of sweet oranges by Asiatic citrus canker

Asiatic citrus canker, caused by Xanthomonas smithii ssp. citri, formerly X. axonopodis pv. citri, is one of the most serious phytosanitary problems in Brazilian citrus crops. Experiments were conducted under controlled conditions to assess the influence of temperature and leaf wetness duration on infection and subsequent symptom development of citrus canker in sweet orange cvs Hamlin, Natal, Pera and Valencia. The quantified variables were incubation period, disease incidence, disease severity, mean lesion density and mean lesion size at temperatures of 12, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40 and 42 degrees C, and leaf wetness durations of 0, 4, 8, 12, 16, 20 and 24 h. Symptoms did not develop at 42 degrees C. A generalized beta function showed a good fit to the temperature data, severity being highest in the range 30-35 degrees C. The relationship between citrus canker severity and leaf wetness duration was explained by a monomolecular model, with the greatest severity occurring at 24 h of leaf wetness, with 4 h of wetness being the minimum duration sufficient to cause 100% incidence at optimal temperatures of 25-35 degrees C. Mean lesion density behaved similarly to disease severity in relation to temperature variation and leaf wetness duration. A combined monomolecular-beta generalized model fitted disease severity, mean lesion density or lesion size as a function of both temperature and duration of leaf wetness. The estimated minimum and maximum temperatures for the occurrence of disease were 12 degrees C and 40 degrees C, respectively.

Nutritional management and weight changes during hospitalization of Brazilian infants with diarrhoea: Primary reliance on oral feeding or continuous nasogastric drip with locally made, modulated minced chicken formula

The nutritional management of infants admitted with diarrhoea to the University Hospital of Botucatu includes a change from bolus feeding of a modulated minced-chicken formula to a continuous nasogastric drip (NGD) feeding, whenever the required calorie intake is not achieved or the diarrhoea does not subside. To evaluate this approach, the clinical course and weight changes of 63 children, aged 1-20 months, were reviewed; most (81 per cent) were below the third percentile for weight at admission and 76 per cent had a total duration of diarrhoea ≥10 days. Associated infections, mainly systemic, were present at or after admission in 70 per cent of them. Twenty-five survivors needed nutritional support (NS), predominantly NGD, for a median duration of 30 per cent of their admission time, and were compared to 31 survivors managed without NS. Those who necessitated NS lost weight for a significantly longer median time (12x4 days, p<0.005), but their total weight loss was similar (5x4 per cent) as well as diarrhoea's duration (8x7 days). There was a tendency for a longer hospitalization (21x16 days 0.05

Intrapulpar temperature during continuous CO2 laser irradiation in human molars: An in vitro study

To establish safety parameters, we in vitro studied the increase in intrapulpal temperature caused by the use of a cw CO2 laser. A thermistor was implanted in the inner part of the pulpal chamber of 25 human lower third molars to measure the intrapulpal temperature produced by laser powers between 2-10 W and exposure times of 0.5-25.0 s. The Pearson linear correlation factor applied to the measured values showed there is a direct relationship between the independent variable and the applied power. A variance analysis produced the linear regression equation: T=1.10+(0.127)E where T is the temperature and E the energy. The results showed that, with a power of 4 W and maximum exposure time of 2.5 s (10 J) and a power density of 12738.85 W cm-2, there will be no damaging reactions affecting the pulpal tissues.

Low-level laser therapy in pediatric bell's palsy: Case report in a three-year-old child

Objectives: The objective of this study was to apply low-level laser therapy (LLLT) to accelerate the recovery process of a child patient with Bell's palsy (BP). Design: This was a prospective study. Subject: The subject was a three-year-old boy with a sudden onset of facial asymmetry due to an unknown cause. Materials and methods: The low-level laser source used was a gallium aluminum arsenide semiconductor diode laser device (660 nm and 780 nm). No steroids or other medications were given to the child. The laser beam with a 0.04-cm2 spot area, and an aperture with approximately 1-mm diameter, was applied in a continuous emission mode in direct contact with the facial area. The duration of a laser session was between 15 and 30 minutes, depending on the chosen points and the area being treated. Light was applied 10 seconds per point on a maximum number of 80 points, when the entire affected (right) side of the face was irradiated, based on the small laser beam spot size. According to the acupuncture literature, this treatment could also be carried out using 10-20 Chinese acupuncture points, located unilaterally on the face. In this case study, more points were used because the entire affected side of the face (a large area) was irradiated instead of using acupuncture points. Outcome measures: The House-Brackmann grading system was used to monitor the evolution of facial nerve motor function. Photographs were taken after every session, always using the same camera and the same magnitude. The three-year-old boy recovered completely from BP after 11 sessions of LLLT. There were 4 sessions a week for the first 2 weeks, and the total treatment time was 3 weeks. Results: The result of this study was the improvement of facial movement and facial symmetry, with complete reestablishment to normality. Conclusions: LLLT may be an alternative to speed up facial normality in pediatric BP. © Copyright 2013, Mary Ann Liebert, Inc. 2013.

Limit Cycles for a Class of Continuous and Discontinuous Cubic Polynomial Differential Systems

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Mathematical modeling of a continuous alcoholic fermentation process in a two-stage tower reactor cascade with flocculating yeast recycle

Experiments of continuous alcoholic fermentation of sugarcane juice with flocculating yeast recycle were conducted in a system of two 0.22-L tower bioreactors in series, operated at a range of dilution rates (D (1) = D (2) = 0.27-0.95 h(-1)), constant recycle ratio (alpha = F (R) /F = 4.0) and a sugar concentration in the feed stream (S (0)) around 150 g/L. The data obtained in these experimental conditions were used to adjust the parameters of a mathematical model previously developed for the single-stage process. This model considers each of the tower bioreactors as a perfectly mixed continuous reactor and the kinetics of cell growth and product formation takes into account the limitation by substrate and the inhibition by ethanol and biomass, as well as the substrate consumption for cellular maintenance. The model predictions agreed satisfactorily with the measurements taken in both stages of the cascade. The major differences with respect to the kinetic parameters previously estimated for a single-stage system were observed for the maximum specific growth rate, for the inhibition constants of cell growth and for the specific rate of substrate consumption for cell maintenance. Mathematical models were validated and used to simulate alternative operating conditions as well as to analyze the performance of the two-stage process against that of the single-stage process.