24 resultados para Markov Switching Models

em Repositório Institucional UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista "Julio de Mesquita Filho"


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INTRODUÇÃO: A malaria é uma doença endêmica na região da Amazônia Brasileira, e a detecção de possíveis fatores de risco pode ser de grande interesse às autoridades em saúde pública. O objetivo deste artigo é investigar a associação entre variáveis ambientais e os registros anuais de malária na região amazônica usando métodos bayesianos espaço-temporais. MÉTODOS: Utilizaram-se modelos de regressão espaço-temporais de Poisson para analisar os dados anuais de contagem de casos de malária entre os anos de 1999 a 2008, considerando a presença de alguns fatores como a taxa de desflorestamento. em uma abordagem bayesiana, as inferências foram obtidas por métodos Monte Carlo em cadeias de Markov (MCMC) que simularam amostras para a distribuição conjunta a posteriori de interesse. A discriminação de diferentes modelos também foi discutida. RESULTADOS: O modelo aqui proposto sugeriu que a taxa de desflorestamento, o número de habitants por km² e o índice de desenvolvimento humano (IDH) são importantes para a predição de casos de malária. CONCLUSÕES: É possível concluir que o desenvolvimento humano, o crescimento populacional, o desflorestamento e as alterações ecológicas associadas a estes fatores estão associados ao aumento do risco de malária. Pode-se ainda concluir que o uso de modelos de regressão de Poisson que capturam o efeito temporal e espacial em um enfoque bayesiano é uma boa estratégia para modelar dados de contagem de malária.

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The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of the platform-switching technique on stress distribution in implant, abutment, and pen-implant tissues, through a 3-dimensional finite element study. Three 3-dimensional mandibular models were fabricated using the Solid Works 2006 and InVesalius software. Each model was composed of a bone block with one implant 10 mm long and of different diameters (3.75 and 5.00 mm). The UCLA abutments also ranged in diameter from 5.00 mm to 4.1 mm. After obtaining the geometries, the models were transferred to the software FEMAP 10.0 for pre- and postprocessing of finite elements to generate the mesh, loading, and boundary conditions. A total load of 200 N was applied in axial (0 degrees), oblique (45 degrees), and lateral (90) directions. The models were solved by the software NeiNastran 9.0 and transferred to the software FEMAP 10.0 to obtain the results that were visualized through von Mises and maximum principal stress maps. Model A (implants with 3.75 mm/abutment with 4.1 mm) exhibited the highest area of stress concentration with all loadings (axial, oblique, and lateral) for the implant and the abutment. All models presented the stress areas at the abutment level and at the implant/abutment interface. Models B (implant with 5.0 mm/abutment with 5.0 mm) and C (implant with 5.0 mm/abutment with 4.1 mm) presented minor areas of stress concentration and similar distribution pattern. For the cortical bone, low stress concentration was observed in the pen-implant region for models B and C in comparison to model A. The trabecular bone exhibited low stress that was well distributed in models B and C. Model A presented the highest stress concentration. Model B exhibited better stress distribution. There was no significant difference between the large-diameter implants (models B and C).

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The aim of this study was to evaluate the stress distribution of platform switching implants using a photoelastic method. Three models were constructed of the photoelastic resin PL-2, with a single implant and a screw-retained implant-supported prosthesis. These models were Model A, platform 5.0 mm/abutment 4.1 mm; Model B, platform 4.1 mm/abutment 4.1 mm; and Model C, platform 5.00 mm/abutment 5.00 mm. Axial and oblique (45 degrees) loads of 100 N were applied using a Universal Testing Machine (EMIC DL 3000). Images were photographed with a digital camera and visualized with software (AdobePhotoshop) to facilitate the qualitative analysis. The highest stress concentrations were observed at the apical third of the 3 models. With the oblique load, the highest stress concentrations were located at the implant apex, opposite the load application. Stress concentrations decreased in the cervical region of Model A (platform switching), and Models A (platform switching) and C (conventional/wide-diameter) displayed similar stress magnitudes. Finally, Model B (conventional/regular diameter) displayed the highest stress concentrations of the models tested.

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Purpose: The objective of this study was to evaluate, using three-dimensional finite element analysis (3D FEA), the stress distribution in peri-implant bone tissue, implants, and prosthetic components of implant-supported single crowns with the use of the platform-switching concept. Materials and Methods: Three 3D finite element models were created to replicate an external-hexagonal implant system with peri-implant bone tissue in which three different implant-abutment configurations were represented. In the regular platform (RP) group, a regular 4.1-mm-diameter abutment (UCLA) was connected to regular 4.1-mm-diameter implant. The platform-switching (PS) group was simulated by the connection of a wide implant (5.0 mm diameter) to a regular 4.1-mm-diameter UCLA abutment. In the wide-platform (WP) group, a 5.0-mm-diameter UCLA abutment was connected to a 5.0-mm-diameter implant. An occlusal load of 100 N was applied either axially or obliquely on the models using ANSYS software. Results: Both the increase in implant diameter and the use of platform switching played roles in stress reduction. The PS group presented lower stress values than the RP and WP groups for bone and implant. In the peri-implant area, cortical bone exhibited a higher stress concentration than the trabecular bone in all models and both loading situations. Under oblique loading, higher intensity and greater distribution of stress were observed than under axial loading. Platform switching reduced von Mises (17.5% and 9.3% for axial and oblique loads, respectively), minimum (compressive) (19.4% for axial load and 21.9% for oblique load), and maximum (tensile) principal stress values (46.6% for axial load and 26.7% for oblique load) in the peri-implant bone tissue. Conclusion: Platform switching led to improved biomechanical stress distribution in peri-implant bone tissue. Oblique loads resulted in higher stress concentrations than axial loads for all models. Wide-diameter implants had a large influence in reducing stress values in the implant system. INT J ORAL MAXILLOFAC IMPLANTS 2011;26:482-491

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In implant therapy, a peri-implant bone resorption has been noticed mainly in the first year after prosthesis insertion. This bone remodeling can sometimes jeopardize the outcome of the treatment, especially in areas in which short implants are used and also in aesthetic cases. To avoid this occurrence, the use of platform switching (PS) has been used. This study aimed to evaluate the biomechanical concept of PS with relation to stress distribution using two-dimensional finite element analysis. A regular matching diameter connection of abutment-implant (regular platform group [RPG]) and a PS connection (PS group [PSG]) were simulated by 2 two-dimensional finite element models that reproduced a 2-piece implant system with peri-implant bone tissue. A regular implant (prosthetic platform of 4.1 mm) and a wide implant (prosthetic platform of 5.0 mm) were used to represent the RPG and PSG, respectively, in which a regular prosthetic component of 4.1 mm was connected to represent the crown. A load of 100 N was applied on the models using ANSYS software. The RPG spreads the stress over a wider area in the peri-implant bone tissue (159 MPa) and the implant (1610 MPa), whereas the PSG seems to diminish the stress distribution on bone tissue (34 MPa) and implant (649 MPa). Within the limitation of the study, the PS presented better biomechanical behavior in relation to stress distribution on the implant but especially in the bone tissue (80% less). However, in the crown and retention screw, an increase in stress concentration was observed.

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In this work we compared the estimates of the parameters of ARCH models using a complete Bayesian method and an empirical Bayesian method in which we adopted a non-informative prior distribution and informative prior distribution, respectively. We also considered a reparameterization of those models in order to map the space of the parameters into real space. This procedure permits choosing prior normal distributions for the transformed parameters. The posterior summaries were obtained using Monte Carlo Markov chain methods (MCMC). The methodology was evaluated by considering the Telebras series from the Brazilian financial market. The results show that the two methods are able to adjust ARCH models with different numbers of parameters. The empirical Bayesian method provided a more parsimonious model to the data and better adjustment than the complete Bayesian method.

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Two stochastic models have been fitted to daily rainfall data for an interior station of Brazil. Of these two models, the results show a better fit to describe the data, by truncated negative probability model in comparison with Markov chain probability model. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is applied for significance for these models. © 1983 Springer-Verlag.

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Linear mixed effects models have been widely used in analysis of data where responses are clustered around some random effects, so it is not reasonable to assume independence between observations in the same cluster. In most biological applications, it is assumed that the distributions of the random effects and of the residuals are Gaussian. This makes inferences vulnerable to the presence of outliers. Here, linear mixed effects models with normal/independent residual distributions for robust inferences are described. Specific distributions examined include univariate and multivariate versions of the Student-t, the slash and the contaminated normal. A Bayesian framework is adopted and Markov chain Monte Carlo is used to carry out the posterior analysis. The procedures are illustrated using birth weight data on rats in a texicological experiment. Results from the Gaussian and robust models are contrasted, and it is shown how the implementation can be used for outlier detection. The thick-tailed distributions provide an appealing robust alternative to the Gaussian process in linear mixed models, and they are easily implemented using data augmentation and MCMC techniques.

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The linear quadratic Gaussian control of discrete-time Markov jump linear systems is addressed in this paper, first for state feedback, and also for dynamic output feedback using state estimation. in the model studied, the problem horizon is defined by a stopping time τ which represents either, the occurrence of a fix number N of failures or repairs (T N), or the occurrence of a crucial failure event (τ δ), after which the system paralyzed. From the constructive method used here a separation principle holds, and the solutions are given in terms of a Kalman filter and a state feedback sequence of controls. The control gains are obtained by recursions from a set of algebraic Riccati equations for the former case or by a coupled set of algebraic Riccati equation for the latter case. Copyright © 2005 IFAC.

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Objectives: The maintenance and stability of peri-implantar soft tissue seem to be related to the crestal bone around the implant platform and different implant designs connections might affect this phenomenon. The aim of this study was to evaluate by photoelastic analysis the stress distribution in the cervical and apical site of implant-abutment interface of conventional implant joints (external hex, internal hex and cone morse) and compare to the novel platform switching design. Materials and methods: It was fabricated photoelastic models using five different implant-abutment connection, one set of external hex (Alvim Ti, Neodent, Curitiba, Brazil), one set of internal hex (Full Osseotite, Biomet 3i, Florida, USA), one cone morse set (Alvim CM, Neodent, Curitiba, Brazil), and two sets of internal hex plus platform switching concept (Alvim II Plus, Neodent, Curitiba, Brazil) (Certain Prevail, Biomet 3i, Florida, USA). These models were submitted to two compressive loads, axial from 20 kgf (load I) and another (load II), inclined 45° from 10 kgf. During the qualitative analysis, digital pictures were taken from a polariscope, for each load situation. For the quantitative analyses in both situations of load, the medium, minimum and maximum in MPa values of shear strain were determined in the cervical and apical site. The Kruskal-Wallis test was used to compare the results between the different systems and between cervical and apical site were compared using Mann-Whitney U test. Results: The results from qualitative analysis showed less concentration of strain in the cervical area to the internal hex plus platform switching (Certain Prevail), in both situation of load. The same results were get in the quantitative analysis, showing less stress concentrations around the implant Certain Prevail with internal hex plus the novel design (17.9 MPa to load I and 29.5 MPa to load II), however, without statistical significant difference between the systems. Conclusion: The minor stress concentration strongly suggest the use of platform switching design as a manner to prevent bone loss around the implant-abutment platform. Clinical Significance: From the result of this study its possible to make clinical decision for implant system which provides implant components with platform switching characteristics.

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This paper addresses the H ∞ state-feedback control design problem of discretetime Markov jump linear systems. First, under the assumption that the Markov parameter is measured, the main contribution is on the LMI characterization of all linear feedback controllers such that the closed loop output remains bounded by a given norm level. This results allows the robust controller design to deal with convex bounded parameter uncertainty, probability uncertainty and cluster availability of the Markov mode. For partly unknown transition probabilities, the proposed design problem is proved to be less conservative than one available in the current literature. An example is solved for illustration and comparisons. © 2011 IFAC.