14 resultados para Markov Models

em Repositório Institucional UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista "Julio de Mesquita Filho"


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The linear quadratic Gaussian control of discrete-time Markov jump linear systems is addressed in this paper, first for state feedback, and also for dynamic output feedback using state estimation. in the model studied, the problem horizon is defined by a stopping time τ which represents either, the occurrence of a fix number N of failures or repairs (T N), or the occurrence of a crucial failure event (τ δ), after which the system paralyzed. From the constructive method used here a separation principle holds, and the solutions are given in terms of a Kalman filter and a state feedback sequence of controls. The control gains are obtained by recursions from a set of algebraic Riccati equations for the former case or by a coupled set of algebraic Riccati equation for the latter case. Copyright © 2005 IFAC.

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This paper addresses the H ∞ state-feedback control design problem of discretetime Markov jump linear systems. First, under the assumption that the Markov parameter is measured, the main contribution is on the LMI characterization of all linear feedback controllers such that the closed loop output remains bounded by a given norm level. This results allows the robust controller design to deal with convex bounded parameter uncertainty, probability uncertainty and cluster availability of the Markov mode. For partly unknown transition probabilities, the proposed design problem is proved to be less conservative than one available in the current literature. An example is solved for illustration and comparisons. © 2011 IFAC.

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Discriminative training of Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) for speech or speaker recognition purposes is usually based on the gradient descent method, in which the iteration step-size, ε, uses to be defined experimentally. In this letter, we derive an equation to adaptively determine ε, by showing that the second-order Newton-Raphson iterative method to find roots of equations is equivalent to the gradient descent algorithm. © 2010 IEEE.

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Traditionally, ancillary services are supplied by large conventional generators. However, with the huge penetration of distributed generators (DGs) as a result of the growing interest in satisfying energy requirements, and considering the benefits that they can bring along to the electrical system and to the environment, it appears reasonable to assume that ancillary services could also be provided by DGs in an economical and efficient way. In this paper, a settlement procedure for a reactive power market for DGs in distribution systems is proposed. Attention is directed to wind turbines connected to the network through synchronous generators with permanent magnets and doubly-fed induction generators. The generation uncertainty of this kind of DG is reduced by running a multi-objective optimization algorithm in multiple probabilistic scenarios through the Monte Carlo method and by representing the active power generated by the DGs through Markov models. The objectives to be minimized are the payments of the distribution system operator to the DGs for reactive power, the curtailment of transactions committed in an active power market previously settled, the losses in the lines of the network, and a voltage profile index. The proposed methodology was tested using a modified IEEE 37-bus distribution test system. © 1969-2012 IEEE.

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In many movies of scientific fiction, machines were capable of speaking with humans. However mankind is still far away of getting those types of machines, like the famous character C3PO of Star Wars. During the last six decades the automatic speech recognition systems have been the target of many studies. Throughout these years many technics were developed to be used in applications of both software and hardware. There are many types of automatic speech recognition system, among which the one used in this work were the isolated word and independent of the speaker system, using Hidden Markov Models as the recognition system. The goals of this work is to project and synthesize the first two steps of the speech recognition system, the steps are: the speech signal acquisition and the pre-processing of the signal. Both steps were developed in a reprogrammable component named FPGA, using the VHDL hardware description language, owing to the high performance of this component and the flexibility of the language. In this work it is presented all the theory of digital signal processing, as Fast Fourier Transforms and digital filters and also all the theory of speech recognition using Hidden Markov Models and LPC processor. It is also presented all the results obtained for each one of the blocks synthesized e verified in hardware

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Sao Paulo State Research Foundation-FAPESP

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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INTRODUÇÃO: A malaria é uma doença endêmica na região da Amazônia Brasileira, e a detecção de possíveis fatores de risco pode ser de grande interesse às autoridades em saúde pública. O objetivo deste artigo é investigar a associação entre variáveis ambientais e os registros anuais de malária na região amazônica usando métodos bayesianos espaço-temporais. MÉTODOS: Utilizaram-se modelos de regressão espaço-temporais de Poisson para analisar os dados anuais de contagem de casos de malária entre os anos de 1999 a 2008, considerando a presença de alguns fatores como a taxa de desflorestamento. em uma abordagem bayesiana, as inferências foram obtidas por métodos Monte Carlo em cadeias de Markov (MCMC) que simularam amostras para a distribuição conjunta a posteriori de interesse. A discriminação de diferentes modelos também foi discutida. RESULTADOS: O modelo aqui proposto sugeriu que a taxa de desflorestamento, o número de habitants por km² e o índice de desenvolvimento humano (IDH) são importantes para a predição de casos de malária. CONCLUSÕES: É possível concluir que o desenvolvimento humano, o crescimento populacional, o desflorestamento e as alterações ecológicas associadas a estes fatores estão associados ao aumento do risco de malária. Pode-se ainda concluir que o uso de modelos de regressão de Poisson que capturam o efeito temporal e espacial em um enfoque bayesiano é uma boa estratégia para modelar dados de contagem de malária.

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In this work we compared the estimates of the parameters of ARCH models using a complete Bayesian method and an empirical Bayesian method in which we adopted a non-informative prior distribution and informative prior distribution, respectively. We also considered a reparameterization of those models in order to map the space of the parameters into real space. This procedure permits choosing prior normal distributions for the transformed parameters. The posterior summaries were obtained using Monte Carlo Markov chain methods (MCMC). The methodology was evaluated by considering the Telebras series from the Brazilian financial market. The results show that the two methods are able to adjust ARCH models with different numbers of parameters. The empirical Bayesian method provided a more parsimonious model to the data and better adjustment than the complete Bayesian method.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Two stochastic models have been fitted to daily rainfall data for an interior station of Brazil. Of these two models, the results show a better fit to describe the data, by truncated negative probability model in comparison with Markov chain probability model. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is applied for significance for these models. © 1983 Springer-Verlag.

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Linear mixed effects models have been widely used in analysis of data where responses are clustered around some random effects, so it is not reasonable to assume independence between observations in the same cluster. In most biological applications, it is assumed that the distributions of the random effects and of the residuals are Gaussian. This makes inferences vulnerable to the presence of outliers. Here, linear mixed effects models with normal/independent residual distributions for robust inferences are described. Specific distributions examined include univariate and multivariate versions of the Student-t, the slash and the contaminated normal. A Bayesian framework is adopted and Markov chain Monte Carlo is used to carry out the posterior analysis. The procedures are illustrated using birth weight data on rats in a texicological experiment. Results from the Gaussian and robust models are contrasted, and it is shown how the implementation can be used for outlier detection. The thick-tailed distributions provide an appealing robust alternative to the Gaussian process in linear mixed models, and they are easily implemented using data augmentation and MCMC techniques.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)