Decisão making or buying: uma aplicação em células de manufatura de uma indústria de produção mecânica

In order to maintain the competitiveness the companies seek for cost reduction and resource optimization. A product or service price is calculated considering direct and indirect costs involved in its fabrication, which means that if an intern indirect process is optimized, the final price of the product is also reduced and becomes more interesting to the final costumer. Considering this reasoning, the companies must evaluate each of their processes and optimize them. It is common to outsource intern products manufacturing as a cost reduction strategy, nevertheless when there are already resources and capability to produce the own goods, it becomes necessary to evaluate the economic gain that each strategy - make or buy - generates. This paper aims to evaluate the necessary support to take a decision regarding making or buying in a production cell of hoses based in the value of economic cost, system cost and decision process

Estudo de caso de dois acidentes do trabalho investigados com o método de árvore de causas

São apresentados dois acidentes do trabalho típicos, ocorridos em empresa de grande porte, investigados com o Método de Árvore de Causas ­ ADC, método que permite identificar o papel desempenhado por fatores gerenciais e de organização do trabalho no desencadeamento desses fenômenos. Os casos apresentados revelam a participação, na gênese dos acidentes, de fatores como designação temporária e improvisada de trabalhadores para funções e postos de trabalho, execução de tarefas deixadas à iniciativa e ao arbítrio dos trabalhadores, falta de ferramentas e de materiais apropriados à execução de tarefas e falhas na circulação de informações, entre outros. São também analisadas as indicações para o uso do método, suas potencialidades em termos de prevenção, bem como as implicações decorrentes de dificuldades de aplicação, de necessidades de treinamento e reciclagens e do dispêndio elevado de tempo para investigação de cada acidente.

Modelo sistêmico de ocorrência de ações coletivas: um estudo multicaso na comercialização de frutas, legumes e verduras

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Utilização de redes neurais artificiais para a determinação do número de refeições diárias de um restaurante universitário

OBJETIVO: Construir uma rede neural artificial para auxiliar os gestores de restaurantes universitários na previsão de refeições diárias. MÉTODOS: O estudo foi desenvolvido a partir do levantamento de oito variáveis que influenciam o número de refeições diárias servidas no restaurante universitário. Utiliza-se o algoritmo de treinamento Backpropagation. Os resultados por meio da rede são comparados com os da série estudada e com resultados da estimação por média aritmética simples. RESULTADOS: A rede proposta acompanha as inúmeras alterações que ocorrem no número de refeições diárias do restaurante universitário. em 73% dos dias analisados, o método das redes neurais artificiais apresenta uma taxa de acerto maior do que o método da média aritmética simples. CONCLUSÃO: A rede neural artificial mostrou-se mais adequada para a previsão do número de refeições do que a metodologia de média simples ou quando a decisão do número de refeições é feita de forma subjetiva, sem critérios científicos.

On data-centric misbehavior detection in VANETs

Detecting misbehavior (such as transmissions of false information) in vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs) is a very important problem with wide range of implications, including safety related and congestion avoidance applications. We discuss several limitations of existing misbehavior detection schemes (MDS) designed for VANETs. Most MDS are concerned with detection of malicious nodes. In most situations, vehicles would send wrong information because of selfish reasons of their owners, e.g. for gaining access to a particular lane. It is therefore more important to detect false information than to identify misbehaving nodes. We introduce the concept of data-centric misbehavior detection and propose algorithms which detect false alert messages and misbehaving nodes by observing their actions after sending out the alert messages. With the data-centric MDS, each node can decide whether an information received is correct or false. The decision is based on the consistency of recent messages and new alerts with reported and estimated vehicle positions. No voting or majority decisions is needed, making our MDS resilient to Sybil attacks. After misbehavior is detected, we do not revoke all the secret credentials of misbehaving nodes, as done in most schemes. Instead, we impose fines on misbehaving nodes (administered by the certification authority), discouraging them to act selfishly. This reduces the computation and communication costs involved in revoking all the secret credentials of misbehaving nodes. © 2011 IEEE.

Brazilian Students and Working Capital: An Analysis of Their Decisions When Using Virtual Market Business Games

This study aims to demonstrate that data from business games can be an important resource for improving efficiency and effectiveness of learning. The proposal presented here was developed from preliminary studies of data from Virtual Market games that pointed the possibility of identifying gaps in learning by analyzing the decisions of students. This proposal helps students to refine their learning processes and equips tutors with strategies for teaching and student assessment. The proposal also complements the group discussion and/or debriefing, which are widely used to enhance learning mediated by games. However, from a management perspective the model has the potential to be erroneous and miss opportunities, which cannot be detected because of the dependence on the characteristics of the individual, such as ability to communicate and work together. To illustrate the proposed technique, data sets from two business games were analyzed with the focus on managing working capital and it was found that students had difficulties managing this task. Similar trends were observed in all categories of students in the study-undergraduate, postgraduate and specialization. This discovery led us to the analysis of data for decisions made in the performance of the games, and it was determined that indicators could be developed that were capable of indentifying inconsistencies in the decisions. It was decided to apply some basic concepts of the finance management, such as management of the operational and non-operational expenditures, as well as production management concepts, such as the use of the production capacity. By analyzing the data from the Virtual Market games using the indicator concept, it was possible to detect the lack of domain knowledge of the students. Therefore, these indicators can be used to analyze the decisions of the players and guide them during the game, increasing their effectiveness and efficiency. As these indicators were developed from specific content, they can also be used to develop teaching materials to support learning. Viewed in this light, the proposal adds new possibilities for using business games in learning. In addition to the intrinsic learning that is achieved through playing the games, they also assist in driving the learning process. This study considers the applications and the methodology used.

Jogo da Minoria: um modelo baseado em agentes aplicado ao mercado financeiro

Nos últimos anos houve uma contribuição significativa dos físicos para a construção de um tipo de modelo baseado em agentes que busca reproduzir, em simulação computacional, o comportamento do mercado financeiro. Esse modelo, chamado Jogo da Minoria consiste de um grupo de agentes que vão ao mercado comprar ou vender ativos. Eles tomam decisões com base em estratégias e, por meio delas, os agentes estabelecem um intrincado jogo de competição e coordenação pela distribuição da riqueza. O modelo tem demonstrado resultados bastante ricos e surpreendentes, tanto na dinâmica do sistema como na capacidade de reproduzir características estatísticas e comportamentais do mercado financeiro. Neste artigo, são apresentadas a estrutura e a dinâmica do Jogo da Minoria, bem como as contribuições recentes relacionadas ao Jogo da Minoria denominado de Grande Canônico, que é um modelo mais bem ajustado às características do mercado financeiro e reproduz as regularidades estatísticas do preço dos ativos chamadas fatos estilizados.

Product development process: Using real options for assessments and to support the decision-making at decision gates

Enterprises need continuous product development activities to remain competitive in the marketplace. Their product development process (PDP) must manage stakeholders' needs - technical, financial, legal, and environmental aspects, customer requirements, Corporate strategy, etc. -, being a multidisciplinary and strategic issue. An approach to use real option to support the decision-making process at PDP phases in taken. The real option valuation method is often presented as an alternative to the conventional net present value (NPV) approach. It is based on the same principals of financial options: the right to buy or sell financial values (mostly stocks) at a predetermined price, with no obligation to do so. In PDP, a multi-period approach that takes into account the flexibility of, for instance, being able to postpone prototyping and design decisions, waiting for more information about technologies, customer acceptance, funding, etc. In the present article, the state of the art of real options theory is prospected and a model to use the real options in PDP is proposed, so that financial aspects can be properly considered at each project phase of the product development. Conclusion is that such model can provide more robustness to the decisions processes within PDP.

Model of a game for improving integrated decisions in production management

This paper presents the results obtained with a business game whose model represents the decision making process related to two moments at an industrial company. The first refers to the project of the industrial plant, and the second to its management. The game model was conceived so the player's first decision would establish capacity and other parameters such as quantities of each product to produce, marketing expenses, research and development, quality, advertising, salaries, if purchases will be made in installments or in cash, if there will be credit sales and how many installments will be allowed and the number of workers in the assembly area. An experiment was conducted with employees of a Brazilian company. Data obtained indicate that the players have lack of contents, especially in finances. Although these results cannot be generalized, they confirm prior results with undergraduate and graduate students and they indicate the need for reinforcement in this undergraduate area. © 2012 Springer-Verlag.

Aplicação de um sistema de Inferência Fuzzy de suporte à decisão para estimação de valores de ações cotadas na Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Multicollinearity and financial constraint in investment decisions: a bayesian generalized ridge regression

This paper addresses the investment decisions considering the presence of financial constraints of 373 large Brazilian firms from 1997 to 2004, using panel data. A Bayesian econometric model was used considering ridge regression for multicollinearity problems among the variables in the model. Prior distributions are assumed for the parameters, classifying the model into random or fixed effects. We used a Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters, considering normal and Student t distributions for the error and assumed that the initial values for the lagged dependent variable are not fixed, but generated by a random process. The recursive predictive density criterion was used for model comparisons. Twenty models were tested and the results indicated that multicollinearity does influence the value of the estimated parameters. Controlling for capital intensity, financial constraints are found to be more important for capital-intensive firms, probably due to their lower profitability indexes, higher fixed costs and higher degree of property diversification.