Impact of climate change on the phoma leaf spot of coffee in Brazil

The potential impact of global climate change on the spatial-temporal distribution of phoma leaf spot of coffee in Brazil was evaluated. Maps were prepared with the favorability of the climate to the occurrence of the disease in the current period and future. The future scenarios used were centered for the decades of 2010-2030, 2040-2060, and 2070-2090 (scenarios A2 and B2). These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCM's) provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Assuming the future scenarios outlined by the IPCC, a reduction will occur in the occurrence of climatic favorability of phoma leaf spot in Brazil in both future scenarios (A2 and B2). As with the temporal distribution, the period of greatest risk of phoma leaf spot will tend to diminish in future decades. These planned changes will be larger in the A2 scenario compared to the predicted scenario B2. Despite the decrease in the favorability of phoma leaf spot in the country, some regions still present a potential risk of this disease. Furthermore, the increased frequency of extreme weather was not taken in to account. These will certainly influence the magnitude of potential impacts of climate change on the phoma leaf spot in Brazil.

Temporal analysis of the reduction in gas emission in areas of mechanically-harvested sugarcane using satellite imagery

The primary objective of this study was to estimate the amount of gas not emitted into the air in areas cultivated with sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum) that were mechanically harvested. Satellite images CBERS-2/CCD, from 08-13-2004, 08-14-2005, 08-15-2006 and 08-16-2007, of northwestern São Paulo State were processed using the Geographic Information System (GIS)-IDRISI 15.0. Areas of interest (the mechanically-harvested sugarcane fields) were identified and quantified based on the spectral response of the bands studied. Based on these data, the amount of gas that was not emitted was evaluated, according to the estimate equation proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results of 396.65 km(2) (5.91% for 2004); 447.56 km(2) (6.67% for 2005); 511.54 km(2) (7.62% in 2006); and 474.60 km(2) (7.07% for 2007), calculated from a total area of 6,710.89 km(2) with sugarcane, showed a significant increase of mechanical harvesting in the study area and a reduction of gas emissions of more than 300,000 t yr(-1).

Greenhouse gas balance due to the conversion of sugarcane areas from burned to green harvest, considering other conservationist management practices

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Análise do risco de ocorrência da monilíase em cacaueiro no Brasil face às mudanças climáticas globais

The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence and the impacts of climate change on this disease in the coming decades, should this pathogen be introduced in Brazil. To this end, climate favorability maps were devised for the occurrence of moniliasis, both for the present and future time. The future scenarios (A2 and B2) focused on the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080. These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCMs) made available by the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Currently, there are large areas with favorable climate conditions for moniliasis in Brazil, especially in regions at high risk of introduction of that pathogen. Considering the global warming scenarios provided by the IPCC, the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence in Brazil will be reduced. This decrease is predicted for both future scenarios, but will occur more sharply in scenario A2. However, there will still be areas with favorable climate conditions for the development of the disease, particularly in Brazil's main producing regions. Moreover, pathogen and host alike may undergo alterations due to climate change, which will affect the extent of their impacts on this pathosystem.

Entre a ciência, a mídia e a sala de aula: contribuições da geografia para o discurso das mudanças climáticas globais

Pós-graduação em Geografia - FCT

Análise do impacto da política estadual de mudanças climáticas no Estado de São Paulo: estudo de caso no setor industrial e perspectivas futuras

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Utilização da modelagem sistêmica para analisar o efeito da variação climática no parâmetro produtividade da água na laranja Natal (Citrus sinensis L. Osbeck) no Estado de São Paulo

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Irrigação e Drenagem) - FCA

Impacts of Climate Change and the End of Deforestation on Land Use in the Brazilian Legal Amazon

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Are large-scale distributional shifts of the blue-winged macaw (Primolius maracana) related to climate change?

Aim To evaluate whether observed geographical shifts in the distribution of the blue-winged macaw (Primolius maracana) are related to ongoing processes of global climate change. This species is vulnerable to extinction and has shown striking range retractions in recent decades, withdrawing broadly from southern portions of its historical distribution. Its range reduction has generally been attributed to the effects of habitat loss; however, as this species has also disappeared from large forested areas, consideration of other factors that may act in concert is merited.Location Historical distribution of the blue-winged macaw in Brazil, eastern Paraguay and northern Argentina.Methods We used a correlative approach to test a hypothesis of causation of observed shifts by reduction of habitable areas mediated by climate change. We developed models of the ecological niche requirements of the blue-winged macaw, based on point-occurrence data and climate scenarios for pre-1950 and post-1950 periods, and tested model predictivity for anticipating geographical distributions within time periods. Then we projected each model to the other time period and compared distributions predicted under both climate scenarios to assess shifts of habitable areas across decades and to evaluate an explanation for observed range retractions.Results Differences between predicted distributions of the blue-winged macaw over the twentieth century were, in general, minor and no change in suitability of landscapes was predicted across large areas of the species' original range in different time periods. No tendency towards range retraction in the south was predicted, rather conditions in the southern part of the species' range tended to show improvement for the species.Main conclusions Our test permitted elimination of climate change as a likely explanation for the observed shifts in the distribution of the blue-winged macaw, and points rather to other causal explanations (e.g. changing regional land use, emerging diseases).