Usage of enterprise modeling processes and information systems design to forecast demand

Managing the great complexity of enterprise system, due to entities numbers, decision and process varieties involved to be controlled results in a very hard task because deals with the integration of its operations and its information systems. Moreover, the enterprises find themselves in a constant changing process, reacting in a dynamic and competitive environment where their business processes are constantly altered. The transformation of business processes into models allows to analyze and redefine them. Through computing tools usage it is possible to minimize the cost and risks of an enterprise integration design. This article claims for the necessity of modeling the processes in order to define more precisely the enterprise business requirements and the adequate usage of the modeling methodologies. Following these patterns, the paper concerns the process modeling relative to the domain of demand forecasting as a practical example. The domain of demand forecasting was built based on a theoretical review. The resulting models considered as reference model are transformed into information systems and have the aim to introduce a generic solution and be start point of better practical forecasting. The proposal is to promote the adequacy of the information system to the real needs of an enterprise in order to enable it to obtain and accompany better results, minimizing design errors, time, money and effort. The enterprise processes modeling are obtained with the usage of CIMOSA language and to the support information system it was used the UML language.

A gestão de estoques em sistemas produtivos Engineering-To-Order e Make-To-Stock: estudo de casos em empresas do setor gráfico

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Properties advanced of the silicon nitride based ceramics and recent performance on automotive parts manufacture by machining process: Advanced Ceramics, demand Forecast

Automotive parts manufacture by machining process using silicon nitride-based ceramic tool development in Brazil already is a reality. Si 3N4-based ceramic cutting tools offer a high productivity due to their excellent hot hardness, which allows high cutting speeds. Under such conditions the cutting tool must be resistant to a combination of mechanical, thermal and chemical attacks. Silicon nitride based ceramic materials constitute a mature technology with a very broad base of current and potential applications. The best opportunities for Si3N 4-based ceramics include ballistic armor, composite automotive brakes, diesel particulate filters, joint replacement products and others. The goal of this work was to show latter advance in silicon nitride manufacture and its recent evolution on machining process of gray cast iron, compacted graphite iron and Ti-6Al-4V. Materials characterization and machining tests were analyzed by X-Ray Diffraction, Scanning Electron Microscopy, Vickers hardness and toughness fracture and technical norm. In recent works the authors has been proved to advance in microstructural, mechanical and physic properties control. These facts prove that silicon nitride-based ceramic has enough resistance to withstand the impacts inherent to the machining of gray cast iron (CI), compacted graphite iron (CGI) and Ti-6Al-4V (6-4). Copyright © 2008 SAE International.

GIS-based analytical tools for transport planning: spatial regression models for transportation demand forecast

Considering the importance of spatial issues in transport planning, the main objective of this study was to analyze the results obtained from different approaches of spatial regression models. In the case of spatial autocorrelation, spatial dependence patterns should be incorporated in the models, since that dependence may affect the predictive power of these models. The results obtained with the spatial regression models were also compared with the results of a multiple linear regression model that is typically used in trips generation estimations. The findings support the hypothesis that the inclusion of spatial effects in regression models is important, since the best results were obtained with alternative models (spatial regression models or the ones with spatial variables included). This was observed in a case study carried out in the city of Porto Alegre, in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, in the stages of specification and calibration of the models, with two distinct datasets.

Prediction equations to estimate the demand of energy and crude protein for maintenance, gain and egg production for laying Japanese quails

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Determination of the chemical oxygen demand (COD) using a copper electrode: a clean alternative method

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Power flow for primary distribution networks considering uncertainty in demand and user connection

This paper presents a method for calculating the power flow in distribution networks considering uncertainties in the distribution system. Active and reactive power are used as uncertain variables and probabilistically modeled through probability distribution functions. Uncertainty about the connection of the users with the different feeders is also considered. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate the possible load scenarios of the users. The results of the power flow considering uncertainty are the mean values and standard deviations of the variables of interest (voltages in all nodes, active and reactive power flows, etc.), giving the user valuable information about how the network will behave under uncertainty rather than the traditional fixed values at one point in time. The method is tested using real data from a primary feeder system, and results are presented considering uncertainty in demand and also in the connection. To demonstrate the usefulness of the approach, the results are then used in a probabilistic risk analysis to identify potential problems of undervoltage in distribution systems. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The rating of perceived exertion predicts intermittent vertical jump demand and performance

The aims of this study were (a) to assess the ability of the rating of perceived exertion (RPE) to predict performance (i.e. number of vertical jumps performed to a fixed jump height) of an intermittent vertical jump exercise, and (b) to determine the ability of RPE to describe the physiological demand of such exercise. Eight healthy men performed intermittent vertical jumps with rest periods of 4, 5, and 6s until fatigue. Heart rate and RPE were recorded every five jumps throughout the sessions. The number of vertical jumps performed was also recorded. Random coefficient growth curve analysis identified relationships between the number of vertical jumps and both RPE and heart rate for which there were similar slopes. In addition, there were no differences between individual slopes and the mean slope for either RPE or heart rate. Moreover, RPE and number of jumps were highly correlated throughout all sessions (r=0.97-0.99; P0.001), as were RPE and heart rate (r=0.93-0.97; P0.001). The findings suggest that RPE can both predict the performance of intermittent vertical jump exercise and describe the physiological demands of such exercise.

Seeder-fertilizer machine: energetic demand as a function of vegetal covering handling and manure deposition shank depth in no-tillage system

O trabalho teve por objetivo avaliar a demanda energética de uma semeadora-adubadora, em função do tipo e manejo da cultura de cobertura vegetal e da profundidade da haste de deposição de adubo. Foi utilizado um trator Valtra BM100, instrumentado, para tracionar uma semeadora-adubadora de precisão equipada com quatro fileiras de semeadura espaçadas de 0,9 m para cultura de milho. O experimento foi conduzido em parcelas subsubdivididas, na área experimental do Laboratório de Máquinas e Mecanização Agrícola (LAMMA) da UNESP-Jaboticabal, utilizando duas culturas de cobertura (mucuna-preta e crotalária), três manejos dessas coberturas, sendo dois mecânicos (triturador de palhas e rolo-faca) e um químico (pulverização com herbicida), realizados 120 dias após a semeadura das culturas de cobertura e três profundidades da haste de deposição do adubo (0,11; 0,14 e 0,17 m), perfazendo 18 tratamentos, com quatro repetições, totalizando 72 observações. Foram avaliados os parâmetros velocidade de deslocamento, patinagem, força na barra de tração, força de pico, potência na barra de tração, potência de pico e consumo de combustível. Pôde-se concluir que a força na barra de tração foi menor para as profundidades de 0,11 e 0,14 m da haste sulcadora de adubo, o mesmo ocorrendo para força de pico, potência na barra de tração e consumo volumétrico. O consumo específico foi menor na profundidade de 0,17 m da haste sulcadora de adubo. As culturas de cobertura e seus manejos não interferiram no desempenho das máquinas estudadas.

Importância dos fatores não-tecnológicos na implementação do CPFR

De acordo com o Voluntary Interindustry Commerce Standards [VICS], o Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment [CPFR] se baseia na padronização, registro e sincronização de dados eletronicamente, apoiado pela gestão colaborativa existente entre as empresas (VICS, 2004). A partir desta definição, pode-se concluir que existem dois fatores preponderantes na implementação do CPFR: um essencialmente tecnológico e outro não-tecnológico. Nesse contexto, o propósito principal deste estudo é identificar na literatura os chamados fatores não tecnológicos que envolvem o CPFR e analisá-los em situações reais. A importância desses fatores é analisada, então, por meio do estudo de dois casos reais de implementação do CPFR, respectivamente, em uma grande rede de fast food e em um grande distribuidor de alimentos, que operam no Brasil. Os resultados destacam, principalmente, que a previsão da demanda realizada pela empresa coordenadora do CPFR é preponderante sobre o entendimento da demanda por todos os elos da cadeia de suprimentos, que a cultura colaborativa é considerada muito importante no relacionamento ao longo da cadeia (embora não seja determinante para a implementação dos processos) e que o monitoramento das atividades é fundamental para o alinhamento das empresas na gestão do CPFR.

Task demand effects on postural control in older adults

The literature shows conflicting results regarding older adults' (OA) postural control performance. Differing task demands amongst scientific studies may contribute to such ambiguous results. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to examine the performance of postural control in older adults and the relationship between visual information and body sway as a function of task demands. Old and young adults (YA) maintained an upright stance on different bases of support (normal, tandem and reduced), both with and without vision, and both with and without room movement. In the more demanding tasks, the older adults displayed greater body sway than the younger adults and older adults were more influenced by the manipulation of the visual information due to the room movement. However, in the normal support condition, the influence of the moving room was similar for the two groups. These results suggest that task demand is an important aspect to consider when examining postural control in older adults. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Transmission network expansion planning considering uncertainty in demand

This paper presents two mathematical models and one methodology to solve a transmission network expansion planning problem considering uncertainty in demand. The first model analyzed the uncertainty in the system as a whole; then, this model considers the uncertainty in the total demand of the power system. The second one analyzed the uncertainty in each load bus individually. The methodology used to solve the problem, finds the optimal transmission network expansion plan that allows the power system to operate adequately in an environment with uncertainty. The models presented are solved using a specialized genetic algorithm. The results obtained for several known systems from literature show that cheaper plans can be found satisfying the uncertainty in demand.

Demographic of short gut syndrome: Increasing demand is not followed by referral of potential candidates for small bowel transplantation

Background. Despite improvements in small bowel transplantation (SBTx), early referral of patients with irreversible intestinal failure (IF) remains a major obstacle. In this study we evaluated the demand for SBTx among seven surgical pediatric centers located at least 200 km from our center.Methods. From 1997 to 2001, 640 patients have been treated for neonatal diseases, including 248 who underwent a minor or major intestinal resection. Twenty-four patients with major resections presented with short gut syndrome, requiring total parenteral nutrition (TPN). The greatest demand was in postsurgical neonates with necrotizing enterocolitis, gastroschiesis, onphalocoeles, or midgut volvulus, and in three adults with postradiotherapy arteritis (n = 2) and mesenteric vein thromboses (n = 1). The median length of residual bowel after resection was 20 to 30 cm, without an ileocecal valve. Four patients were referred for SBTx evaluation; three died while awaiting a donor; 20 were not referred, among whom 14 died of TPN complications.Results. Approximately 62 children per year require nutritional support for IF, most of whom develop complications related to TPN. Because many patients who are TPN-dependent develop complications, we believe that early referral would reduce mortality.Conclusions. Greater medical awareness about the feasibility of SBTx procedures and earlier referral may improve results and quality of life after transplant.

An hydrochemical answer to a legislative demand involving health risk related to water quality

Effluents and surface waters around an area involved with the inking of tissues at Itatiba municipality, São Paulo State, Brazil, were chemically analyzed with the purpose of evaluating the influence on the water quality of the chemicals released, as well to provide answers to legislative requirements related to the São Paulo State Register 997 published on 31 May 1976.

Transmission network expansion planning considering uncertainty in generation and demand

This paper presents a mathematical model and a methodology to solve a transmission network expansion planning problem considering uncertainty in demand and generation. The methodology used to solve the problem, finds the optimal transmission network expansion plan that allows the power system to operate adequately in an environment with uncertainty. The model presented results in an optimization problem that is solved using a specialized genetic algorithm. The results obtained for known systems from the literature show that cheaper plans can be found satisfying the uncertainty in demand and generation. ©2008 IEEE.