Chuva, vulnerabilidade social e percepção do risco na cidade de São Paulo: impactos de eventos extremos nos bairros da Freguesia do Ó e do M’Boi Mirim

The city of São Paulo has, since the beginning of the expansion of its urban sprawl, represented relations of conflicts and contradictions between society and nature. Once the way society relates to nature is defined by how the social agents themselves correlate in certain social and historical contexts, the ways of interaction between the social and natural elements will be different according to the forms of production and appropriation of the urban space. Even more evident is the case of the great national metropolis, given its demographic dimensions and historical conditions, the process of urban expansion follows a logic where spaces of better quality for housing are occupied by those of better financial conditions. Thus, although there are exceptions, the poorest people live in places less desirable, in less resilient environments of lower environmental quality, relating to nature and its phenomena with greater risks. These risks are reflected here as recurring flooding, mudslides and landslides for which the rain is constantly blamed. So we have a situation where it is clear that a weather phenomenon differently interacts with different social groups. In this context, the study was conducted to compare extreme events occurred in two regions of São Paulo: the Freguesia do O, in the north side, and M'Boi Mirim, in the south side. Both are regions with large number of risk areas and are in the same urban climate unit. However, they present different conditions of social vulnerability. With the investigation of each extreme rain event occurred in the two regions, in the period of 2000-2010, supplemented by field research, we tried to observe how far the rain, with his intensity and volume, can, in fact, be related to the accidents.

Socio-climatic hotspots in Brazil

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Estimativa da probabilidade do evento extremo de precipitação de janeiro de 2000 no Vale do Paraíba, baseada na distribuição generalizada de pareto

Um evento extremo de precipitação ocorreu na primeira semana do ano 2000, de 1º a 5 de janeiro, no Vale do Paraíba, parte leste do Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, causando enorme impacto socioeconômico, com mortes e destruição. Este trabalho estudou este evento em 10 estações meteorológicas selecionadas que foram consideradas como aquelas tendo dados mais homogêneos do Que outras estações na região. O modelo de distribuição generalizada de Pareto (DGP) para valores extremos de precipitação de 5 dias foi desenvolvido, individualmente para cada uma dessas estações. Na modelagem da DGP, foi adotada abordagem não-estacionaria considerando o ciclo anual e tendência de longo prazo como co-variaveis. Uma conclusão desta investigação é que as quantidades de precipitação acumulada durante os 5 dias do evento estudado podem ser classificadas como extremamente raras para a região, com probabilidade de ocorrência menor do que 1% para maioria das estações, e menor do que 0,1% em três estações.

Impact of climate change on the phoma leaf spot of coffee in Brazil

The potential impact of global climate change on the spatial-temporal distribution of phoma leaf spot of coffee in Brazil was evaluated. Maps were prepared with the favorability of the climate to the occurrence of the disease in the current period and future. The future scenarios used were centered for the decades of 2010-2030, 2040-2060, and 2070-2090 (scenarios A2 and B2). These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCM's) provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Assuming the future scenarios outlined by the IPCC, a reduction will occur in the occurrence of climatic favorability of phoma leaf spot in Brazil in both future scenarios (A2 and B2). As with the temporal distribution, the period of greatest risk of phoma leaf spot will tend to diminish in future decades. These planned changes will be larger in the A2 scenario compared to the predicted scenario B2. Despite the decrease in the favorability of phoma leaf spot in the country, some regions still present a potential risk of this disease. Furthermore, the increased frequency of extreme weather was not taken in to account. These will certainly influence the magnitude of potential impacts of climate change on the phoma leaf spot in Brazil.

A importância da adoção de planos preventivos de defesa civil nos municípios: o caso de Ribeirão Preto (SP)

Pós-graduação em Geografia - IGCE

Considerações sobre as consequências dos Desastres Hidrometeorológicos no Brasil de 2009 a 2011

The disaster natural disaster stand as one of the greatest challenges of urban man. Cities are built and modeled as a function of economic and political issues, without respecting environmental characteristics. So it is possible to see through the data of the National Civil Defence large number of disasters occurring in Brazilian cities in the years 2009 to 2011, and in all were reported over 5000 occurrences of natural disasters over the years. The Brazilian public policy failures show up in issues of urban planning where to admit the allocation of people in inappropriate areas. Another issue to be considered is the non-response of the population to civil defense warnings, people often prefer to risk staying in high-risk areas for fear of being robbed while they are away, and end up not serving the notices given by the Civil Defense, increase thus the number of victims when in fact the weather event triggers natural disasters one

Tipologia climática: subsídios para uma análise teórico-metodológica do clima na região metropolitana de São Paulo

The present study aims to establish the mapping units climate Metropolitan Region of São Paulo, with a more refined analysis in the study of extreme weather events to contribute to the adaptation of populations made vulnerable in the face of extreme weather events, and also as an aid local public policies, from a new perspective climate. As criteria of analysis, temperature, precipitation, altitude and use and occupation of land. For this we use as a work methodology broad literature review, fieldwork and use of geotechnology in the proposed mapping generation

Uso e ocupação da terra e vulnerabilidade a alagamento na área central da cidade de São Paulo: o caso da subprefeitura Sé

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A gênese e a distribuição socioespacial das chuvas no município de Ubatuba-SP

This monograph aims to contribute to the understanding and analysis of extreme events and its correlation with anthropogenic actions, in order to understand the levels of human interference in the environment and to identify potential social and environmental damage that such events may result in Ubatuba, located on the northern coast of São Paulo state. Therefore, two strategies were established, on one hand, episodic analysis of extreme weather events, and on the other, the analysis of the impact of atmospheric phenomena in everyday society. In this case we gave greater emphasis to analysis years that had higher total rainfall. In this sense, the research was based on the standard deviation technique and percentages, which supported to characterize the exceptional rainy years, in addition, use of rhythm analysis technique that has helped to identify the active atmospheric systems. From a qualitative point of view, field works were carried out in order to make use of news by the local press and civil defense for years considered extreme (positive standard deviation). From this, it was analyzed how the extreme episodes of rainfall trigger repercussions in geographic space. Also the spatial distribution of rainfall were carried out by means of quantitative analysis of six rain gauges. It was found that the highest occurrences of impacts, are located in the central areas of the city, as well as the highest rainfall totals. In fact, Ubatuba/SP suffers from very high rainfall totals and has a singularity on the climate...

Processos geodinâmicos associados a mudanças de uso da terra: o caso da microbacia hidrográfica do Córrego Caçula (Ilha Solteira - SP)

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Civil - FEIS

Widespread Amazon forest tree mortality from a single cross-basin squall line event

Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of extreme precipitation events in Amazonia that in turn might produce more forest blowdowns associated with convective storms. Yet quantitative tree mortality associated with convective storms has never been reported across Amazonia, representing an important additional source of carbon to the atmosphere. Here we demonstrate that a single squall line (aligned cluster of convective storm cells) propagating across Amazonia in January, 2005, caused widespread forest tree mortality and may have contributed to the elevated mortality observed that year. Forest plot data demonstrated that the same year represented the second highest mortality rate over a 15-year annual monitoring interval. Over the Manaus region, disturbed forest patches generated by the squall followed a power-law distribution (scaling exponent alpha = 1.48) and produced a mortality of 0.3-0.5 million trees, equivalent to 30% of the observed annual deforestation reported in 2005 over the same area. Basin-wide, potential tree mortality from this one event was estimated at 542 +/- 121 million trees, equivalent to 23% of the mean annual biomass accumulation estimated for these forests. Our results highlight the vulnerability of Amazon trees to wind-driven mortality associated with convective storms. Storm intensity is expected to increase with a warming climate, which would result in additional tree mortality and carbon release to the atmosphere, with the potential to further warm the climate system. Citation: Negron-Juarez, R. I., J. Q. Chambers, G. Guimaraes, H. Zeng, C. F. M. Raupp, D. M. Marra, G. H. P. M. Ribeiro, S. S. Saatchi, B. W. Nelson, and N. Higuchi (2010), Widespread Amazon forest tree mortality from a single cross-basin squall line event, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L16701, doi:10.1029/2010GL043733.

Análise das adversidades climáticas no oeste paulista e norte do Paraná

Pós-graduação em Geografia - FCT

Risco climático, vulnerabilidade socioespacial e eventos climáticos extremos relacionados ao calor e ao frio no estado do Rio Grande do Sul- Brasil

Pós-graduação em Geografia - FCT