A fast electric load forecasting using adaptive neural networks

This work presents a procedure for electric load forecasting based on adaptive multilayer feedforward neural networks trained by the Backpropagation algorithm. The neural network architecture is formulated by two parameters, the scaling and translation of the postsynaptic functions at each node, and the use of the gradient-descendent method for the adjustment in an iterative way. Besides, the neural network also uses an adaptive process based on fuzzy logic to adjust the network training rate. This methodology provides an efficient modification of the neural network that results in faster convergence and more precise results, in comparison to the conventional formulation Backpropagation algorithm. The adapting of the training rate is effectuated using the information of the global error and global error variation. After finishing the training, the neural network is capable to forecast the electric load of 24 hours ahead. To illustrate the proposed methodology it is used data from a Brazilian Electric Company. © 2003 IEEE.

Spatial electric load forecasting using a local movement approach

An agent based model for spatial electric load forecasting using a local movement approach for the spatiotemporal allocation of the new loads in the service zone is presented. The density of electrical load for each of the major consumer classes in each sub-zone is used as the current state of the agents. The spatial growth is simulated with a walking agent who starts his path in one of the activity centers of the city and goes to the limits of the city following a radial path depending on the different load levels. A series of update rules are established to simulate the S growth behavior and the complementarity between classes. The results are presented in future load density maps. The tests in a real system from a mid-size city show a high rate of success when compared with other techniques. The most important features of this methodology are the need for few data and the simplicity of the algorithm, allowing for future scalability. © 2009 IEEE.

Static converter: didactic support software

Teaching a course of special electric loads in a continuing education program to power engineers is a difficult task because they are not familiarized with switching topology circuits. Normally, in a typical program, many hours are dedicated to explain the thyristors switching sequence and to draw the converter currents and terminal voltages waveforms for different operative conditions. This work presents teaching support software in order to optimize the time spent in this task and, mainly to benefit the assimilation of the proposed subjects, studying the static converter under different non-ideal operative conditions.

Synchronous machines parameters identification using load rejection test data

This work shows a computational methodology for the determination of synchronous machines parameters using load rejection test data. The quadrature axis parameters are obtained with a rejection under an arbitrary reference, reducing the present difficulties.

Identification of synchronous machine parameters using load rejection test data

This work shows a computational methodology for the determination of synchronous machines parameters using load rejection test data. By machine modeling one can obtain the quadrature parameters through a load rejection under an arbitrary reference, reducing the present difficulties. The proposed method is applied to a real machine.

A constructive heuristic algorithm to Short Term Transmission Network Expansion Planning

In this paper a method for solving the Short Term Transmission Network Expansion Planning (STTNEP) problem is presented. The STTNEP is a very complex mixed integer nonlinear programming problem that presents a combinatorial explosion in the search space. In this work we present a constructive heuristic algorithm to find a solution of the STTNEP of excellent quality. In each step of the algorithm a sensitivity index is used to add a circuit (transmission line or transformer) to the system. This sensitivity index is obtained solving the STTNEP problem considering as a continuous variable the number of circuits to be added (relaxed problem). The relaxed problem is a large and complex nonlinear programming and was solved through an interior points method that uses a combination of the multiple predictor corrector and multiple centrality corrections methods, both belonging to the family of higher order interior points method (HOIPM). Tests were carried out using a modified Carver system and the results presented show the good performance of both the constructive heuristic algorithm to solve the STTNEP problem and the HOIPM used in each step.

Alternative continuation method for loading margin improvement and transmission losses reduction

This paper presents an alternative methodology for loading margin improvement and total real power losses reduction by using a continuation method. In order to attain this goal, a parameterizing equation based on the total real power losses and the equations of the reactive power at the slack and generation buses are added to the conventional power flow equations. The voltages at these buses are considered as control variables and a new parameter is chosen to reduce the real power losses in the transmission lines. The results show that this procedure leads to maximum loading point increase and consequently, in static voltage stability margin improvement. Besides, this procedure also takes to a reduction in the operational costs and, simultaneously, to voltage profile improvement. Another important result of this methodology is that the resulting operating points are close to that provided by an optimal power flow program. © 2004 IEEE.

Comparison of algorithms for loss allocation in transmission networks considering power redispatch

An analysis of the performances of three important methods for generators and loads loss allocation is presented. The discussed methods are: based on pro-rata technique; based on the incremental technique; and based on matrices of circuit. The algorithms are tested considering different generation conditions, using a known electric power system: IEEE 14 bus. Presented and discussed results verify: the location and the magnitude of generators and loads; the possibility to have agents well or poorly located in each network configuration; the discriminatory behavior considering variations in the power flow in the transmission lines. © 2004 IEEE.

Evolutionary heuristic to determine future land use

In the spatial electric load forecasting, the future land use determination is one of the most important tasks, and one of the most difficult, because of the stochastic nature of the city growth. This paper proposes a fast and efficient algorithm to find out the future land use for the vacant land in the utility service area, using ideas from knowledge extraction and evolutionary algorithms. The methodology was implemented into a full simulation software for spatial electric load forecasting, showing a high rate of success when the results are compared to information gathered from specialists. The importance of this methodology lies in the reduced set of data needed to perform the task and the simplicity for implementation, which is a great plus for most of the electric utilities without specialized tools for this planning activity. © 2008 IEEE.

Spatial load forecasting using a demand propagation approach

A method for spatial electric load forecasting using multi-agent systems, especially suited to simulate the local effect of special loads in distribution systems is presented. The method based on multi-agent systems uses two kinds of agents: reactive and proactive. The reactive agents represent each sub-zone in the service zone, characterizing each one with their corresponding load level, represented in a real number, and their relationships with other sub-zones represented in development probabilities. The proactive agent carry the new load expected to be allocated because of the new special load, this agent distribute the new load in a propagation pattern. The results are presented with maps of future expected load levels in the service zone. The method is tested with data from a mid-size city real distribution system, simulating the effect of a load with attraction and repulsion attributes. The method presents good results and performance. © 2011 IEEE.

Laboratório remoto de qualidade da energia elétrica em ambiente virtual

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Estudo de caso: diagnóstico do consumo e da qualidade de energia numa indústria metalúrgica

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Electric load forecasting using a fuzzy ART&ARTMAP neural network

This work presents a neural network based on the ART architecture ( adaptive resonance theory), named fuzzy ART& ARTMAP neural network, applied to the electric load-forecasting problem. The neural networks based on the ARTarchitecture have two fundamental characteristics that are extremely important for the network performance ( stability and plasticity), which allow the implementation of continuous training. The fuzzy ART& ARTMAP neural network aims to reduce the imprecision of the forecasting results by a mechanism that separate the analog and binary data, processing them separately. Therefore, this represents a reduction on the processing time and improved quality of the results, when compared to the Back-Propagation neural network, and better to the classical forecasting techniques (ARIMA of Box and Jenkins methods). Finished the training, the fuzzy ART& ARTMAP neural network is capable to forecast electrical loads 24 h in advance. To validate the methodology, data from a Brazilian electric company is used. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Cellular Automaton Approach to Spatial Electric Load Forecasting

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Harmonic propagation analysis in electric energy distribution systems

An important alteration of the equivalent loads profile has been observed in the electrical energy distribution systems, for the last years. Such fact is due to the significant increment of the electronic processors of electric energy that, in general, behave as nonlinear loads, generating harmonic distortions in the currents and voltages along the electric network. The effects of these nonlinear loads, even if they are concentrated in specific sections of the network, are present along the branch circuits, affecting the behavior of the entire electric network. For the evaluation of this phenomenon it is necessary the analysis of the harmonic currents flow and the understanding of the causes and effects of the consequent voltage harmonic distortions. The usual tools for calculation the harmonic flow consider one-line equivalent networks, balanced and symmetrical systems. Therefore, they are not tools appropriate for analysis of the operation and the influence/interaction of mitigation elements. In this context, this work proposes the development of a computational tool for the analysis of the three-phase harmonic propagation using Norton modified models and considering the real nature of unbalanced electric systems operation. © 2011 IEEE.