Parametric VaR with goodness-of-fit tests based on EDF statistics for extreme returns

Parametric VaR (Value-at-Risk) is widely used due to its simplicity and easy calculation. However, the normality assumption, often used in the estimation of the parametric VaR, does not provide satisfactory estimates for risk exposure. Therefore, this study suggests a method for computing the parametric VaR based on goodness-of-fit tests using the empirical distribution function (EDF) for extreme returns, and compares the feasibility of this method for the banking sector in an emerging market and in a developed one. The paper also discusses possible theoretical contributions in related fields like enterprise risk management (ERM). © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Uma análise de aspectos relacionados ao desenvolvimento e adoção de Enterprise Resources Planning livre de código aberto

Sistemas Integrados de Gestão ou Enterprise Resources Planning - ERP possibilitam o processamento das informações necessárias em uma empresa usando um único banco de dados. Muito tem se escrito sobre este tipo de software, abordando questões como o alto custo da aquisição de licenças, e a dependência de consultoria para a sua adaptação e implantação nas empresas. Atualmente vem crescendo o desenvolvimento e uso de ERP Livre de Código Aberto (FOS-ERP). Porém verifica-se que este tipo de sistema ainda não é suficientemente explorado, mesmo no meio acadêmico. Este artigo relata alguns trabalhos publicados sobre o assunto e levanta questões que devem ser tratadas por pesquisadores e demais interessados para adequar e viabilizar o uso desses sistemas conforme a realidade nacional. Assim, após uma introdução ao tema, são apresentadas algumas diferenças entre o FOS-ERP e seus equivalentes proprietários (Proprietary ERP ou P-ERP) em termos de modelos de negócios, seleção, customização e evolução. em seguida são elencados alguns desafios e oportunidades que o FOS-ERP pode oferecer a usuários, fornecedores, pesquisadores e colaboradores individuais. Concluindo, este artigo busca ampliar a discussão sobre FOS-ERP, destacando fatores tais como seu potencial de inovação tecnológica e estratégias de negócios.

Statistics and kinetics of single-molecule electron transfer dynamics in complex environments: A simulation model study

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Second-order statistics for equal gain and maximal ratio diversity-combining reception

Exact and closed-form expressions for the level crossing rate and average fade duration are presented for equal gain combining and maximal ratio combining schemes, assuming an arbitrary number of independent branches in a Rayleigh environment. The analytical results are thoroughly validated by simulation.

Second-order statistics for diversity-combining, techniques in Nakagami-fading channels

Exact and closed-form expressions for the level crossing rate and average fade duration are presented for the M branch pure selection combining (PSC), equal gain combining (EGC), and maximal ratio combining (MRC) techniques, assuming independent branches in a Nakagami environment. The analytical results are thoroughly validated by reducing the general case to some special cases, for which the solutions are known, and by means of simulation for the more general case. The model developed here is general and can be easily applied to other fading statistics (e.g., Rice).

NUCLEAR DENSITIES AND THE STATISTICS OF NUCLEONIC CONSTITUENTS

In the quark model of the nucleon, the Fermi statistics of the elementary constituents can influence significantly the properties of multinucleon bound systems. In the Skyrme model, on the other hand, the basic quanta are bosons, so that qualitatively different statistics effects can be expected a priori. In order to illustrate this point, we construct schematic one-dimensional quark and soliton models which yield fermionic nucleons with identical baryon densities. We then compare the baryon densities of a two-nucleon bound state in both models. Whereas in the quark model the Pauli principle for quarks leads to a depletion of the density in the central region of the nucleus, the soliton model predicts a slight increase of the density in that region, due to the bosonic statistics of the meson-field quanta.

Tsallis statistics and gradually truncated Levy flight - distribution of an economical index

Tsallis postulated a generalized form for entropy and give rise to a new statistics now known as Tsallis statistics. In the present work, we compare the Tsallis statistics with the gradually truncated Levy flight, and discuss the distribution of an economical index-the Standard and Poor's 500-using the values of standard deviation as calculated by our model. We find that both statistics give almost the same distribution. Thus we feel that gradual truncation of Levy distribution, after certain critical step size for describing complex systems, is a requirement of generalized thermodynamics or similar. The gradually truncated Levy flight is based on physical considerations and bring a better physical picture of the dynamics of the whole system. Tsallis statistics gives a theoretical support. Both statistics together can be utilized for the development of a more exact portfolio theory or to understand better the complexities in human and financial behaviors. A comparison of both statistics is made. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier B.V. B.V.

Size limiting in Tsallis statistics

Power law scaling is observed in many physical, biological and socio-economical complex systems and is now considered an important property of these systems. In general, power law exists in the central part of the distribution. It has deviations from power law for very small and very large variable sizes. Tsallis, through non-extensive thermodynamics, explained power law distribution in many cases including deviation from the power law. In case of very large steps, the used the heuristic crossover approach. In the present we present an alternative model in which we consider that the entropy factor 9 decreases with variable size due to the softening of long range interactions or memory. We apply this model for distribution of citation index of scientists and examination scores and are able to explain the distribution for entire variable range. In the present model, we can have very sharp cut-off without interfering with power law in its central part as observed in many cases. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessment and statistics of Brazilian hydroelectric power plants: Dam areas versus installed and firm power

The Brazilian relief, predominantly composed by small mountains and plateaus, contributed to formation of rivers with high amount of falls. With exception to North-eastern Brazil, the climate of this country are rainy, which contributes to maintain water flows high. These elements are essential to a high hydroelectric potential, contributing to the choice of hydroelectric power plants as the main technology of electricity generation in Brazil. Though this is a renewable source, whose utilized resource is free, dams must to be established which generates a high environmental and social impact. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact caused by these dams through the use of environmental indexes. These indexes are ratio formed by installed power with dam area of a hydro power plant, and ratio formed by firm power with this dam area. In this study, the greatest media values were found in South, Southeast, and Northeast regions respectively, and the smallest media values were found in North and Mid-West regions, respectively. The greatest encountered media indexes were also found in dams established in the 1950s. In the last six decades, the smallest indexes were registered by darns established in the 1980s. These indexes could be utilized as important instruments for environmental impact assessments, and could enable a dam to be established that depletes an ecosystem as less as possible.

Near-infrared Raman spectroscopy to detect anti-Toxoplasma gondii antibody in blood sera of domestic cats: quantitative analysis based on partial least-squares multivariate statistics

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Statistics on tropical convective storms observed by radar

Convective storm rainfall is of special importance to urban hydrological studies due to its temporal and spatial variability. Although dense networks of recording rain gauges can be employed to characterize such rainfall, very few investigations of this type have been undertaken due to their prohibitive cost. This paper reports some data on characteristics of tropical convective storms obtained from radar at Bauru in the State of São Paulo, Brazil. Periods of convective precipitation were identified by exclusion of those related to frontal activity with the help of synoptic maps and the radar screen record. The occurrence and evolution of convective storms were observed in two 28 km × 28 km windows obtaining information on the life history of convective cells and the magnitude of rainfall. Frequency distributions of the time of occurrence of convective rainfall, cell size, area covered, life duration and maximum and average rainfall observed in the experimental areas are presented and discussed.

Usage of enterprise modeling processes and information systems design to forecast demand

Managing the great complexity of enterprise system, due to entities numbers, decision and process varieties involved to be controlled results in a very hard task because deals with the integration of its operations and its information systems. Moreover, the enterprises find themselves in a constant changing process, reacting in a dynamic and competitive environment where their business processes are constantly altered. The transformation of business processes into models allows to analyze and redefine them. Through computing tools usage it is possible to minimize the cost and risks of an enterprise integration design. This article claims for the necessity of modeling the processes in order to define more precisely the enterprise business requirements and the adequate usage of the modeling methodologies. Following these patterns, the paper concerns the process modeling relative to the domain of demand forecasting as a practical example. The domain of demand forecasting was built based on a theoretical review. The resulting models considered as reference model are transformed into information systems and have the aim to introduce a generic solution and be start point of better practical forecasting. The proposal is to promote the adequacy of the information system to the real needs of an enterprise in order to enable it to obtain and accompany better results, minimizing design errors, time, money and effort. The enterprise processes modeling are obtained with the usage of CIMOSA language and to the support information system it was used the UML language.

HPLC determination of hemoglobins to establish reference values with the aid of statistics and informatics

The purpose of the present study was to establish reference values for hemoglobins (Hb) using HPLC, in samples containing normal Hb (AA), sickle cell trait without alpha-thalassemia (AS), sickle cell trait with alpha-thalassemia (ASH), sickle cell anemia (SS), and Hb SC disease (SC). The blood samples were analyzed by electrophoresis, HPLC and molecular procedures. The Hb A2 mean was 4.30 ± 0.44% in AS, 4.18 ± 0.42% in ASH, 3.90 ± 1.14% in SS, and 4.39 ± 0.35% in SC. They were similar, but above the normal range. Between the AS and ASH groups, only the amount of Hb S was higher in the AS group. The Hb S mean in the AS group was 38.54 ± 3.01% and in the ASH it was 36.54 ± 3.76%. In the qualitative analysis, using FastMap, distinct groups were seen: AA and SS located at opposite extremes, AS and ASH with overlapping values and intermediate distribution, SC between heterozygotes and the SS group. Hb S was confirmed by allele-specific polymerase chain reaction. The Hb values established will be available for use as a reference for the Brazilian population, drawing attention to the increased levels of Hb A2, which should be considered with caution to prevent incorrect diagnoses. ©FUNPEC-RP.

The application of distributed virtual machines for enterprise computer management: A two-tier network file system for image provisioning and management

In order to simplify computer management, several system administrators are adopting advanced techniques to manage software configuration of enterprise computer networks, but the tight coupling between hardware and software makes every PC an individual managed entity, lowering the scalability and increasing the costs to manage hundreds or thousands of PCs. Virtualization is an established technology, however its use is been more focused on server consolidation and virtual desktop infrastructure, not for managing distributed computers over a network. This paper discusses the feasibility of the Distributed Virtual Machine Environment, a new approach for enterprise computer management that combines virtualization and distributed system architecture as the basis of the management architecture. © 2008 IEEE.