Evaluation of systems for timing of fungicide sprays for control of postbloom fruit drop of citrus in Brazil

Postbloom fruit drop (PFD) of citrus, caused by Colletotrichum acutatum, infects petals of citrus flowers and produces orange-brown lesions that induce the abscission of young fruitlets and the retention of calyces. Proper timing of fungicide applications is essential for good disease control. Different systems for timing of fungicide applications for control of PFD in a major citrus-growing region in southern São Paulo state in Brazil were evaluated from 1999 to 2002. The following programs were compared to an unsprayed control using counts of diseased flowers, persistent calyces, or fruit: (i) a phenology-based program currently recommended in Brazil with one application at early and another at peak bloom; (ii) the Florida PFD model; (iii) the postbloom fruit drop-fungicide application decision system (PFD-FAD), a new computer-assisted decision method; and (iv) grower's choice. In 1999, no disease developed, sprays applied with the phenology-based program had no effect, and the Florida PFD model saved two sprays compared with the phenology-based program. In 2000, PFD was moderate and the phenology-based and growers' choice treatments had a significantly lower number of persistent calyces and higher fruit numbers than the control, but no differences were found between those treatments and the PFD model. In 2001, PFD was severe with considerable yield loss. The PFD model, the phenology-based program, and the grower's choice reduced flower blight and the number of persistent calyces, and improved fruit yields with two to three applications, but the PFD-FAD achieved comparable yields with only one spray. In 2002, the disease was mild, with no yield loss, and the Florida PFD model and the PFD-FAD saved one spray compared with the other systems. The PFD model and the PFD-FAD were equally effective for timing fungicide applications to control PFD in Brazil. Scouting of trees is simpler with PFD-FAD; therefore, this system is recommended and should eliminate unnecessary sprays and reduce costs for growers.

Digital monitoring of broiler breeder behavior for assessment of thermal welfare

The assessment of welfare issues has been a challenge for poultry producers, and lately welfare standards needs to be reached in order to agree with international market demand. This research proposes the use of continuous behavior monitoring in order to contribute for assessing welfare. A software was developed using the language Clarium. The software managed the recording of data as well as the data searching in the database Firebird. Both software and the observational methodology were tested in a trial conducted inside an environmental chamber, using three genetics of broiler breeders. Behavioral pattern was recorded and correlated to ambient thermal and aerial variation. Monitoring video cameras were placed on the roof facing the used for registering the bird's behavior. From video camera images were recorded during the total period when the ambient was bright, and for analyzing the video images a sample of 15min observation in the morning and 15 min in the afternoon was used, adding up to 30 min daily observation. A specific model so-called behavior was developed inside the software for counting specific behavior and its frequency of occurrence, as well as its duration. Electronic identification was recorded for 24h period. Behavioral video recording images was related to the data recorded using electronic identification.. Statistical analysis of data allowed to identify behavioral differences related to the change in thermal environment, and ultimately indicating thermal stress and departure from welfare conditions.

Decision-Making Tool for Knowledge-Based Projects in Offshore Production Systems

The development of an offshore field demands knowledge of many experts to choose the different components of an offshore production system. All the specialized parts of this knowledge are intrinsically related. The aim of this paper is to use Fuzzy Sets and knowledge-based systems to describe and formalize the phases of development of an offshore production system project, in order to share and to manage the required knowledge for carrying out a project, while at the same time proposing alternatives for the oil field configuration.

Thermoeconomic analysis method for optimization of combined heat and power systems

This article presents an thermoeconomic analysis of cogeneration plants, applied as a rational technique to produce electric power and saturated steam. The aim of this new methodology is the minimum exergetic manufacturing cost (EMC), based on the Second Law of Thermodynamics. The decision variables selected for the optimization are the pressure and the temperature of the steam leaving the boiler in the case of using steam turbine, and the pressure ratio, turbine exhaust temperature and mass flow in the case of using gas turbines. The equations for calculating the capital costs of the components and products are formulated as a function of these decision variables. An application of the method using real data of a multinational chemical industry located in São Paulo state is presented. The conditions which establish the minimum cost are presented as finals conclusions.

Robust fault diagnosis in power distribution systems based on fuzzy ARTMAP neural network-aided evidence theory

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Spatial Distribution of Seropositive Dogs to Leptospira spp. and Evaluation of Leptospirosis Risk Factors Using a Decision Tree

Background: Leptospirosis is an important zoonotic disease associated with poor areas of urban settings of developing countries and early diagnosis and prompt treatment may prevent disease. Although rodents are reportedly considered the main reservoirs of leptospirosis, dogs may develop the disease, may become asymptomatic carriers and may be used as sentinels for disease epidemiology. The use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) combined with spatial analysis techniques allows the mapping of the disease and the identification and assessment of health risk factors. Besides the use of GIS and spatial analysis, the technique of data mining, decision tree, can provide a great potential to find a pattern in the behavior of the variables that determine the occurrence of leptospirosis. The objective of the present study was to apply Geographical Information Systems and data prospection (decision tree) to evaluate the risk factors for canine leptospirosis in an area of Curitiba, PR.Materials, Methods & Results: The present study was performed on the Vila Pantanal, a urban poor community in the city of Curitiba. A total of 287 dog blood samples were randomly obtained house-by-house in a two-day sampling on January 2010. In addition, a questionnaire was applied to owners at the time of sampling. Geographical coordinates related to each household of tested dog were obtained using a Global Positioning System (GPS) for mapping the spatial distribution of reagent and non-reagent dogs to leptospirosis. For the decision tree, risk factors included results of microagglutination test (MAT) from the serum of dogs, previous disease on the household, contact with rats or other dogs, dog breed, outdoors access, feeding, trash around house or backyard, open sewer proximity and flooding. A total of 189 samples (about 2/3 of overall samples) were randomly selected for the training file and consequent decision rules. The remained 98 samples were used for the testing file. The seroprevalence showed a pattern of spatial distribution that involved all the Pantanal area, without agglomeration of reagent animals. In relation to data mining, from 189 samples used in decision tree, a total of 165 (87.3%) animal samples were correctly classified, generating a Kappa index of 0.413. A total of 154 out of 159 (96.8%) samples were considered non-reagent and were correctly classified and only 5/159 (3.2%) were wrongly identified. on the other hand, only 11 (36.7%) reagent samples were correctly classified, with 19 (63.3%) samples failing diagnosis.Discussion: The spatial distribution that involved all the Pantanal area showed that all the animals in the area are at risk of contamination by Leptospira spp. Although most samples had been classified correctly by the decision tree, a degree of difficulty of separability related to seropositive animals was observed, with only 36.7% of the samples classified correctly. This can occur due to the fact of seronegative animals number is superior to the number of seropositive ones, taking the differences in the pattern of variable behavior. The data mining helped to evaluate the most important risk factors for leptospirosis in an urban poor community of Curitiba. The variables selected by decision tree reflected the important factors about the existence of the disease (default of sewer, presence of rats and rubbish and dogs with free access to street). The analyses showed the multifactorial character of the epidemiology of canine leptospirosis.

A machine learning approach for genome-wide prediction of morbid and druggable human genes based on systems-level data

Background: The genome-wide identification of both morbid genes, i.e., those genes whose mutations cause hereditary human diseases, and druggable genes, i.e., genes coding for proteins whose modulation by small molecules elicits phenotypic effects, requires experimental approaches that are time-consuming and laborious. Thus, a computational approach which could accurately predict such genes on a genome-wide scale would be invaluable for accelerating the pace of discovery of causal relationships between genes and diseases as well as the determination of druggability of gene products.Results: In this paper we propose a machine learning-based computational approach to predict morbid and druggable genes on a genome-wide scale. For this purpose, we constructed a decision tree-based meta-classifier and trained it on datasets containing, for each morbid and druggable gene, network topological features, tissue expression profile and subcellular localization data as learning attributes. This meta-classifier correctly recovered 65% of known morbid genes with a precision of 66% and correctly recovered 78% of known druggable genes with a precision of 75%. It was than used to assign morbidity and druggability scores to genes not known to be morbid and druggable and we showed a good match between these scores and literature data. Finally, we generated decision trees by training the J48 algorithm on the morbidity and druggability datasets to discover cellular rules for morbidity and druggability and, among the rules, we found that the number of regulating transcription factors and plasma membrane localization are the most important factors to morbidity and druggability, respectively.Conclusions: We were able to demonstrate that network topological features along with tissue expression profile and subcellular localization can reliably predict human morbid and druggable genes on a genome-wide scale. Moreover, by constructing decision trees based on these data, we could discover cellular rules governing morbidity and druggability.

Thermoeconomic analysis method for optimization of combined heat and power systems. Part I

This article presents a thermoeconomic analysis of cogeneration plants, applied as a rational technique to produce electric power and saturated steam. The aim of this new methodology is the minimum Exergetic Production Cost (EPC), based on the Second Law of Thermodynamics. The variables selected for the optimization are the pressure and the temperature of the steam leaving the boiler in the case of using steam turbine, and the pressure ratio, turbine exhaust temperature and mass flow in the case of using gas turbines. The equations for calculating the capital costs of the components and products are formulated as a function of these decision variables. An application of the method using real data of a multinational chemical industry located in São Paulo state is presented. The conditions which establish the minimum cost are presented as final output. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multiobjective linear model for pre-feasibility design of cogeneration systems

This article deals with some methodologies for economic and technical evaluations of cogeneration projects proposed by several authors. A discussion on design philosophy applied to thermal power plants leads to the decision problem of a conflicting, multiobjective formulation that includes the most important parameters. This model is formulated to help decision makers and designers in choosing compromise values for included parameters. (C) 1997 Elsevier B.V. Ltd.

Product development process: Using real options for assessments and to support the decision-making at decision gates

Enterprises need continuous product development activities to remain competitive in the marketplace. Their product development process (PDP) must manage stakeholders' needs - technical, financial, legal, and environmental aspects, customer requirements, Corporate strategy, etc. -, being a multidisciplinary and strategic issue. An approach to use real option to support the decision-making process at PDP phases in taken. The real option valuation method is often presented as an alternative to the conventional net present value (NPV) approach. It is based on the same principals of financial options: the right to buy or sell financial values (mostly stocks) at a predetermined price, with no obligation to do so. In PDP, a multi-period approach that takes into account the flexibility of, for instance, being able to postpone prototyping and design decisions, waiting for more information about technologies, customer acceptance, funding, etc. In the present article, the state of the art of real options theory is prospected and a model to use the real options in PDP is proposed, so that financial aspects can be properly considered at each project phase of the product development. Conclusion is that such model can provide more robustness to the decisions processes within PDP.

Thermoeconomic functional analysis applied in cogeneration systems associated to cellulose plants

Thermoeconomic Functional Analysis is a method developed for the analysis and optimal design of improvement of thermal systems (Frangopoulos, 1984). The purpose of this work is to discuss the cogeneration system optimization using a condensing steam turbine with two extractions. This cogeneration system is a rational alternative in pulp and paper plants in regard to the Brazilian conditions. The objective of this optimization consists of minimizing the global cost of the system acquisition and operation, based on the parametrization of actual data from a cellulose plant with a daily production of 1000 tons. Among the several possible decision variables, the pressure and temperature of live steam were selected. These variables significantly affect the energy performance of the cogeneration system. The conditions which determine a lower cost for the system are presented in conclusion.

Economic viability and selection of irrigation systems using simulation and stochastic dominance

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Lyapounov stability for impulsive dynamical systems

This article addresses the problem of stability of impulsive control systems whose dynamics are given by measure driven differential inclusions. One important feature concerns the adopted solution which allows the consideration of systems whose singular dynamics do not satisfy the so-called Frobenius condition. After extending the conventional notion of control Lyapounov pair for impulsive systems, some stability conditions of the Lyapounov type are given. Some conclusions follow the outline of the proof of the main result.

Invariance for Impulsive Control Systems

In this article, we provide invariance conditions for control systems whose dynamics are given by measure driven differential inclusions. The solution concept plays a critical role in the extension of the conventional conditions for the impulsive control context. A couple of examples illustrating the specific features of impulsive control systems are included.

Defects location in power systems components through a dedicated genetic algorithm

In this work the problem of defects location in power systems is formulated through a binary linear programming (BLP) model based on alarms historical database of control and protection devices from the system control center, sets theory of minimal coverage (AI) and protection philosophy adopted by the electric utility. In this model, circuit breaker operations are compared to their expected states in a strictly mathematical manner. For solving this BLP problem, which presents a great number of decision variables, a dedicated Genetic Algorithm (GA), is proposed. Control parameters of the GA, such as crossing over and mutation rates, population size, iterations number and population diversification, are calibrated in order to obtain efficiency and robustness. Results for a test system found in literature, are presented and discussed. © 2004 IEEE.