Delays in stabilization or in reforms? The debt crisis

Empirical analyses attributing the 1980s' debt crisis to inconsistent stabilization policies rest on an inappropriate long-run approach. Revising this long-run approach yields opposite results: terms of trade shocks and foreign indebtedness explain this crisis, regardless of domestic stabilization policies. This prompts us to consider a new hypothesis, of delays in trade-policy reforms, with a model in which terms-of-trade variation (under shocks) is endogenous to export structure and efficiency of resource allocation. Evidence from the structural equations model shows that allocation distortions negatively affect changes in terms of trade, which then explain this crisis. A political economy extension demonstrates that income inequality and regional trade policy determine the distortions, which in turn leads to this crisis.

A family of crisis in a dissipative Fermi accelerator model

The Fermi accelerator model is studied in the framework of inelastic collisions. The dynamics of this problem is obtained by use of a two-dimensional nonlinear area-contracting map. We consider that the collisions of the particle with both periodically time varying and fixed walls are inelastic. We have shown that the dissipation destroys the mixed phase space structure of the nondissipative case and in special, we have obtained and characterized in this problem a family of two damping coefficients for which a boundary crisis occurs. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Boundary crisis and suppression of Fermi acceleration in a dissipative two-dimensional non-integrable time-dependent billiard

Some dynamical properties for a dissipative time-dependent oval-shaped billiard are studied. The system is described in terms of a four-dimensional nonlinear mapping. Dissipation is introduced via inelastic collisions of the particle with the boundary, thus implying that the particle has a fractional loss of energy upon collision. The dissipation causes profound modifications in the dynamics of the particle as well as in the phase space of the non-dissipative system. In particular, inelastic collisions can be assumed as an efficient mechanism to suppress Fermi acceleration of the particle. The dissipation also creates attractors in the system, including chaotic. We show that a slightly modification of the intensity of the damping coefficient yields a drastic and sudden destruction of the chaotic attractor, thus leading the system to experience a boundary crisis. We have characterized such a boundary crisis via a collision of the chaotic attractor with its own basin of attraction and confirmed that inelastic collisions do indeed suppress Fermi acceleration in two-dimensional time-dependent billiards. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Boundary crisis and transient in a dissipative relativistic standard map

Some dynamical properties for a problem concerning the acceleration of particles in a wave packet are studied. The model is described in terms of a two-dimensional nonlinear map obtained from a Hamiltonian which describes the motion of a relativistic standard map. The phase space is mixed in the sense that there are regular and chaotic regions coexisting. When dissipation is introduced, the property of area preservation is broken and attractors emerge. We have shown that a tiny increase of the dissipation causes a change in the phase space. A chaotic attractor as well as its basin of attraction are destroyed thereby leading the system to experience a boundary crisis. We have characterized such a boundary crisis via a collision of the chaotic attractor with the stable manifold of a saddle fixed point. Once the chaotic attractor is destroyed, a chaotic transient described by a power law with exponent 1 is observed. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamical properties of a particle in a wave packet: Scaling invariance and boundary crisis

Some dynamical properties present in a problem concerning the acceleration of particles in a wave packet are studied. The dynamics of the model is described in terms of a two-dimensional area preserving map. We show that the phase space is mixed in the sense that there are regular and chaotic regions coexisting. We use a connection with the standard map in order to find the position of the first invariant spanning curve which borders the chaotic sea. We find that the position of the first invariant spanning curve increases as a power of the control parameter with the exponent 2/3. The standard deviation of the kinetic energy of an ensemble of initial conditions obeys a power law as a function of time, and saturates after some crossover. Scaling formalism is used in order to characterise the chaotic region close to the transition from integrability to nonintegrability and a relationship between the power law exponents is derived. The formalism can be applied in many different systems with mixed phase space. Then, dissipation is introduced into the model and therefore the property of area preservation is broken, and consequently attractors are observed. We show that after a small change of the dissipation, the chaotic attractor as well as its basin of attraction are destroyed, thus leading the system to experience a boundary crisis. The transient after the crisis follows a power law with exponent -2. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Energy gain induced by boundary crisis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The debt crisis: a re-appraisal

The 1980s' debt crisis is a landmark in developing economies' growth and stabilization. According to the most quoted empirical articles, external shocks and vicissitudes gave rise to crisis just because of delays in stabilization policies, engendered by internal conflicts and institutional immaturity. I review some of these papers, and find out some problems - in the measurement of shocks and foreign indebtedness, namely - whose corrections lead to opposite results: external shocks and foreign indebtedness explain that crisis regardless of domestic policies. At the same time, the strong correlation of income distribution to terms of trade changes and foreign indebtedness suggest that inequality may have contributed differently to that crisis: either through an economic channel, or through a political channel based on delays in reforms.

Inelastic photoproduction at HERA: A second charmonium crisis?

Measurements of the inelastic photoproduction of charmonium at HERA have ignited a new charmonium crisis. The Color Singlet approach to computing onium production cross sections fits the data for large charmonium energy fraction z, where color octet models fail. This approach is however in qualitative disagreement with a wealth of information that exist on charmonium production by other initial states. We here suggest that the source of the discrepancy between color octet models (whether implemented in the soft color or NRQCD formalism) and data is due to the neglect of non-perturbative effects. Implementing these in a scheme originally developed for Drell-Yan phenomenology, we illustrate how agreement with the data is achieved. © 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Regional hydroclimatic variability and Brazil's 2001 energy crisis

Purpose - This paper seeks to address the issue of persistent and widespread drought conditions during 2000 and 2001, which were the apparent cause of the decline of water levels in the reservoirs of Brazilian hydroelectric power plants. Design/methodology/approach - This issue is addressed here through a case study of the hydroclimatology of the Paraíba river basin, in Southeast Brazil, home to four large multi-purpose operational reservoirs. Findings - The data analysis shows that neither changes in the frequency nor magnitude of extreme hydrological events (droughts and floods) nor in annual rainfall amounts can be detected from the existing climate record. The explanation is consistent with the fact that the terrestrial water and energy cycles are tightly, and non-linearly, coupled through evapotranspiration. Research limitations/implications - Therefore small change in the seasonality of rainfall can have a significant impact on the basin's overall hydrologic regime, and thus on the availability of water resources. Originality/value - Often, adaptation and resilience to climate variability are discussed in the context of catastrophic events such as floods and droughts. This study suggests that a different type of impacts, those associated with subtle, yet persistent changes of seasonality in the terrestrial water cycle, cannot be ignored in studies of long-term sustainability of water resources. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.