Are large-scale distributional shifts of the blue-winged macaw (Primolius maracana) related to climate change?

Aim To evaluate whether observed geographical shifts in the distribution of the blue-winged macaw (Primolius maracana) are related to ongoing processes of global climate change. This species is vulnerable to extinction and has shown striking range retractions in recent decades, withdrawing broadly from southern portions of its historical distribution. Its range reduction has generally been attributed to the effects of habitat loss; however, as this species has also disappeared from large forested areas, consideration of other factors that may act in concert is merited.Location Historical distribution of the blue-winged macaw in Brazil, eastern Paraguay and northern Argentina.Methods We used a correlative approach to test a hypothesis of causation of observed shifts by reduction of habitable areas mediated by climate change. We developed models of the ecological niche requirements of the blue-winged macaw, based on point-occurrence data and climate scenarios for pre-1950 and post-1950 periods, and tested model predictivity for anticipating geographical distributions within time periods. Then we projected each model to the other time period and compared distributions predicted under both climate scenarios to assess shifts of habitable areas across decades and to evaluate an explanation for observed range retractions.Results Differences between predicted distributions of the blue-winged macaw over the twentieth century were, in general, minor and no change in suitability of landscapes was predicted across large areas of the species' original range in different time periods. No tendency towards range retraction in the south was predicted, rather conditions in the southern part of the species' range tended to show improvement for the species.Main conclusions Our test permitted elimination of climate change as a likely explanation for the observed shifts in the distribution of the blue-winged macaw, and points rather to other causal explanations (e.g. changing regional land use, emerging diseases).

Invasive Africanized honeybees change the structure of native pollination networks in Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Effect of a heat-treatment on the linear dimensional change of a hard chairside reline resin

Statement of problem. Little data are available regarding the effect of heat-treatments on the dimensional stability of hard chairside reline resins. Purpose. The objective of this in vitro study was to evaluate whether a heat-treatment improves the dimensional stability of the reline resin Duraliner II and to compare the linear dimensional changes of this material with the heat-polymerized acrylic resin Lucitone 550. Material and methods. The materials were mixed according to the manufacturer's instructions and packed into a stainless steel split mold (50.0 mm diameter and 0.5 mm thickness) with reference points (A, B, C, and D). Duraliner II specimens were polymerized for 12 minutes in water at 37°C and bench cooled to room temperature before being removed from the mold. Twelve specimens were made and divided into 2 groups: group 1 specimens (n=6) were left untreated, and group 2 specimens (n=6) were submitted to a heat-treatment in a water bath at 55°C for 10 minutes and then bench cooled to room temperature. The 6 Lucitone specimens (control group) were polymerized in a water bath for 9 hours at 71°C. The specimens were removed after the mold reached the room temperature. A Nikon optical comparator was used to measure the distances between the reference points (AB and CD) on the stainless steel mold (baseline readings) and on the specimens to the nearest 0.001 mm. Measurements were made after processing and after the specimens had been stored in distilled water at 37°C for 8 different periods of time. Data were subjected to analysis of variance with repeated measures, followed by Tukey's multiple comparison test (P<.05). Results. All specimens exhibited shrinkage after processing (control, -0.41%; group 1, -0.26%; and group 2, -0.51%). Group 1 specimens showed greater shrinkage (-1.23%) than the control (-0.23%) and group 2 (-0.81%) specimens after 60 days of storage in water (P<.05). Conclusion. Within the limitations of this study, a significant improvement of the long-term dimensional stability of the Duraliner II reline resin was observed when the specimens were heat-treated. However, the shrinkage remained considerably higher than the denture base resin Lucitone 550. Copyright © 2002 by The Editorial Council of The Journal of Prosthetic Dentistry.

Alternative transfer to the Earth-Moon Lagrangian points L4 and L5 using lunar gravity assist

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Tracking climatically suitable areas for an endemic Cerrado snake under climate change

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Estimation of a preference map of new consumers for spatial load forecasting simulation methods using a spatial analysis of points

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)