Solving the Levins' paradox in the logistic model to the population growth

We introduce a new method to improve Markov maps by means of a Bayesian approach. The method starts from an initial map model, wherefrom a likelihood function is defined which is regulated by a temperature-like parameter. Then, the new constraints are added by the use of Bayes rule in the prior distribution. We applied the method to the logistic map of population growth of a single species. We show that the population size is limited for all ranges of parameters, allowing thus to overcome difficulties in interpretation of the concept of carrying capacity known as the Levins paradox. © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.

Análise Bayesiana para a distribuição Exponencial-Logarítmica

Pós-graduação em Matematica Aplicada e Computacional - FCT

Delineamentos experimentais eficientes para estudos de cinética química

In this paper we show how to obtain efficient designs of experiments for fitting Michaelis-Menten and Hill equations useful in chemical studies. The search of exact D-optimal designs by using local and pseudo-Bayesian approaches is considered. Optimal designs were compared to those commonly used in practice using an efficiency measure and theoretical standard errors of the kinetic parameter estimates. In conclusion, the D-optimal designs based on the Hill equation proved efficient for estimating the parameters of both models. Furthermore, these are promising with respect to practical issues, allowing efficient estimation as well as goodness-of-fit tests and comparisons between some kinetic models.

Vertical transmission of hepatitis C virus: A tale of multiple outcomes

Globally, hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection affects approximately 130 million people and 3 million new infections occur annually. HCV is also recognized as an important cause of chronic liver disease in children. The absence of proofreading properties of the HCV RNA polymerase leads to a highly error prone replication process, allowing HCV to escape host immune response. The adaptive nature of HCV evolution dictates the outcome of the disease in many ways. Here, we investigated the molecular evolution of HCV in three unrelated children who acquired chronic HCV infection as a result of mother-to-child transmission, two of whom were also coinfected with HIV-1. The persistence of discrete HCV variants and their population structure were assessed using median joining network and Bayesian approaches. While patterns of viral evolution clearly differed between subjects, immune system dysfunction related to HIV coinfection or persistent HCV seronegativity stand as potential mechanisms to explain the lack of molecular evolution observed in these three cases. In contrast, treatment of HCV infection with PegIFN, which did not lead to sustained virologic responses in all 3 cases, was not associated with commensurate variations in the complexity of the variant spectrum. Finally, the differences in the degree of divergence suggest that the mode of transmission of the virus was not the main factor driving viral evolution. (C) 2013 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Is Drosera meristocaulis a pygmy sundew? evidence of a long-distance dispersal between Western Australia and northern South America

Background and aims South America and Oceania possess numerous floristic similarities, often confirmed by morphological and molecular data. The carnivorous Drosera meristocaulis (Droseraceae), endemic to the Neblina highlands of northern South America, was known to share morphological characters with the pygmy sundews of Drosera sect. Bryastrum, which are endemic to Australia and New Zealand. The inclusion of D. meristocaulis in a molecular phylogenetic analysis may clarify its systematic position and offer an opportunity to investigate character evolution in Droseraceae and phylogeographic patterns between South America and Oceania. Methods Drosera meristocaulis was included in a molecular phylogenetic analysis of Droseraceae, using nuclear internal transcribed spacer (ITS) and plastid rbcL and rps16 sequence data. Pollen of D. meristocaulis was studied using light microscopy and scanning electron microscopy techniques, and the karyotype was inferred from root tip meristem. Key Results The phylogenetic inferences (maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches) substantiate with high statistical support the inclusion of sect. Meristocaulis and its single species, D. meristocaulis, within the Australian Drosera clade, sister to a group comprising species of sect. Bryastrum. A chromosome number of 2n = approx. 32–36 supports the phylogenetic position within the Australian clade. The undivided styles, conspicuous large setuous stipules, a cryptocotylar (hypogaeous) germination pattern and pollen tetrads with aperture of intermediate type 7–8 are key morphological traits shared between D. meristocaulis and pygmy sundews of sect. Bryastrum from Australia and New Zealand. Conclusions The multidisciplinary approach adopted in this study (using morphological, palynological, cytotaxonomic and molecular phylogenetic data) enabled us to elucidate the relationships of the thus far unplaced taxon D. meristocaulis. Long-distance dispersal between southwestern Oceania and northern South America is the most likely scenario to explain the phylogeographic pattern revealed.

Evaluation of an average numerator relationship matrix model and a Bayesian hierarchical model for growth traits in Nellore cattle with uncertain paternity

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Bayesian outlier analysis in binary regression

We propose alternative approaches to analyze residuals in binary regression models based on random effect components. Our preferred model does not depend upon any tuning parameter, being completely automatic. Although the focus is mainly on accommodation of outliers, the proposed methodology is also able to detect them. Our approach consists of evaluating the posterior distribution of random effects included in the linear predictor. The evaluation of the posterior distributions of interest involves cumbersome integration, which is easily dealt with through stochastic simulation methods. We also discuss different specifications of prior distributions for the random effects. The potential of these strategies is compared in a real data set. The main finding is that the inclusion of extra variability accommodates the outliers, improving the adjustment of the model substantially, besides correctly indicating the possible outliers.

Molecular tools and analytical approaches for the characterization of farm animal genetic diversity

Genetic studies of livestock populations focus on questions of domestication, within- and among-breed diversity, breed history and adaptive variation. In this review, we describe the use of different molecular markers and methods for data analysis used to address these questions. There is a clear trend towards the use of single nucleotide polymorphisms and whole-genome sequence information, the application of Bayesian or Approximate Bayesian analysis and the use of adaptive next to neutral diversity to support decisions on conservation.

A Bayesian Analysis of Spectral ARMA Model

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A useful empirical bayesian method to analyse industrial data from saturated factorial designs

The use of saturated two-level designs is very popular, especially in industrial applications where the cost of experiments is too high. Standard classical approaches are not appropriate to analyze data from saturated designs, since we could only get the estimates of the main factor effects and we would not have degrees of freedom to estimate the variance of the error. In this paper, we propose the use of empirical Bayesian procedures to get inferences for data obtained from saturated designs. The proposed methodology is illustrated assuming a simulated data set. © 2013 Growing Science Ltd. All rights reserved.