Bayesian binary regression model: an application to in-hospital death after AMI prediction

Um modelo bayesiano de regressão binária é desenvolvido para predizer óbito hospitalar em pacientes acometidos por infarto agudo do miocárdio. Métodos de Monte Carlo via Cadeias de Markov (MCMC) são usados para fazer inferência e validação. Uma estratégia para construção de modelos, baseada no uso do fator de Bayes, é proposta e aspectos de validação são extensivamente discutidos neste artigo, incluindo a distribuição a posteriori para o índice de concordância e análise de resíduos. A determinação de fatores de risco, baseados em variáveis disponíveis na chegada do paciente ao hospital, é muito importante para a tomada de decisão sobre o curso do tratamento. O modelo identificado se revela fortemente confiável e acurado, com uma taxa de classificação correta de 88% e um índice de concordância de 83%.

Bayesian outlier analysis in binary regression

We propose alternative approaches to analyze residuals in binary regression models based on random effect components. Our preferred model does not depend upon any tuning parameter, being completely automatic. Although the focus is mainly on accommodation of outliers, the proposed methodology is also able to detect them. Our approach consists of evaluating the posterior distribution of random effects included in the linear predictor. The evaluation of the posterior distributions of interest involves cumbersome integration, which is easily dealt with through stochastic simulation methods. We also discuss different specifications of prior distributions for the random effects. The potential of these strategies is compared in a real data set. The main finding is that the inclusion of extra variability accommodates the outliers, improving the adjustment of the model substantially, besides correctly indicating the possible outliers.

Effects of therapeutic approach on the neonatal evolution of very low birth weight infants with patent ductus arteriosus

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Lateral pterygoid muscle volume and migraine in patients with temporomandibular disorders

Lateral pterygoid muscle (LPM) plays an important role in jaw movement and has been implicated in Temporomandibular disorders (TMDs). Migraine has been described as a common symptom in patients with TMDs and may be related to muscle hyperactivity. This study aimed to compare LPM volume in individuals with and without migraine, using segmentation of the LPM in magnetic resonance (MR) imaging of the TMJ. Twenty patients with migraine and 20 volunteers without migraine underwent a clinical examination of the TMJ, according to the Research Diagnostic Criteria for TMDs. MR imaging was performed and the LPM was segmented using the ITK-SNAP 1.4.1 software, which calculates the volume of each segmented structure in voxels per cubic millimeter. The chi-squared test and the Fisher's exact test were used to relate the TMD variables obtained from the MR images and clinical examinations to the presence of migraine. Logistic binary regression was used to determine the importance of each factor for predicting the presence of a migraine headache. Patients with TMDs and migraine tended to have hypertrophy of the LPM (58.7%). In addition, abnormal mandibular movements (61.2%) and disc displacement (70.0%) were found to be the most common signs in patients with TMDs and migraine. In patients with TMDs and simultaneous migraine, the LPM tends to be hypertrophic. LPM segmentation on MR imaging may be an alternative method to study this muscle in such patients because the hypertrophic LPM is not always palpable.

Anxiety and depression in brazilian undergraduate students: the role of sociodemographic variables, undergraduate course characteristics and social skills

The prevalence of anxiety and depression disorders in undergraduate students is high and several variables can be influential. The aim is to verify the predictive value of social skills, sociodemographic variables, and course characteristics for depression and anxiety. A total of 1282 students of a public university, of both sexes and from different years and courses, participated in this study. Screening instruments for depression and anxiety were applied, as well as an instrument investigating social skills and a questionnaire covering socio demographic indicators and course characteristics. The data were analyzed using univariate analysis followed by multiple binary regression analysis in order to define the relevance of these depression and anxiety measures. The rates of anxiety and depression were 19.4% and 3.8%, respectively. The social skills and living situation were predictive of depression, with the social skills and course area (with higher prevalence for the exact and human sciences) remaining in the final model for anxiety. Such data have implications for psychological prevention and intervention with this population.

Logistic regression to estimate the welfare of broiler breeders in relation to environmental and behavioral variables

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Microencapsulation of turmeric oleoresin in binary and ternary blends of gum arabic, maltodextrin and modified starch

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)