Identifying financial crises in real time

Following the thermodynamic formulation of a multifractal measure that was shown to enable the detection of large fluctuations at an early stage, here we propose a new index which permits us to distinguish events like financial crises in real time. We calculate the partition function from which we can obtain thermodynamic quantities analogous to the free energy and specific heat. The index is defined as the normalized energy variation and it can be used to study the behavior of stochastic time series, such as financial market daily data. Famous financial market crashes-Black Thursday (1929), Black Monday (1987) and the subprime crisis (2008)-are identified with clear and robust results. The method is also applied to the market fluctuations of 2011. From these results it appears as if the apparent crisis of 2011 is of a different nature to the other three. We also show that the analysis has forecasting capabilities. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The current financial and economic crisis: empirical and methodological issues

In this paper we describe the main causes of the recent financial crisis as a result of many theoretical, methodological, and practical shortcomings mostly according to heterodox, but also including some important orthodox economists. At theoretical level, there are problems concerning teaching and using economic models with overly unrealistic assumptions. In the methodological front, we find the unsuspected shadow of Milton Friedman’s ‘unrealisticism of assumptions’ thesis lurking behind the construction of this kind of models and the widespread neglect of methodological issues. Of course, the most evident shortcomings are at the practical level: (i) huge interests of the participants in the financial markets (banks, central bankers, regulators, rating agencies mortgage brokers, politicians, governments, executives, economists, etc. mainly in the US, Canada and Europe, but also in Japan and the rest of the world), (ii) in an almost completely free financial and economic market, that is, one (almost) without any regulation or supervision, (iii) decision-taking upon some not well regarded qualities, like irresponsibility, ignorance, and inertia; and (iv) difficulties to understand the current crisis as well as some biases directing economic rescues by governments. Following many others, we propose that we take this episode as an opportunity to reflect on, and hopefully redirect, economic theory and practice.

Enigma do paradoxo chinês: uma análise

Pós-graduação em Economia - FCLAR

A crise econômico-financeira internacional e seus impactos sobre a preservação das microempresas e empresas de pequeno porte

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

O FMI e o Sistema Financeiro Internacional: uma análise das mudanças estratégicas nas décadas de 1980 e 1990

The current study has aimed to analyze changes in strategies at the International Monetary Fund that occurred during the 1980s and 1990s. The analysis is done through the the recovery of the 1980s international economic scene, amid the global recession and debt crisis, and shows how the course of the decade and influenced changes under recommendations provided by the IMF to countries with balance of payments crisis. Furthermore, the paper also describes the changes in the international financial system, in some countries which have adopted them and also to the International Monetary Fund itself

A crise financeira de 2008: uma reflexão a partir da teoria da fragilidade financeira de Hyman Minsky

This paper aims to use the theoretical framework developed by Hyman P. Minsky for understanding the concept of financial fragility observed in the capitalist system. It is intended to clarify the concept of intrinsic instability to which capitalism is subject, which is responsible for generating more economic cycles - periods of prosperity and crashes that affect global economies - particularly the one initiated in the United States in 2008. Thus, we made theoretical analysis of the theory of economic cycles and financial instability beyond historical reviews on the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression

Uma crise à lá Minsky?: uma análise da crise financeira sob a ótica de Hyman Minsky

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Globalização, Estado e crise estrutural do capital

Pós-graduação em Economia - FCLAR

Programa Minha Casa Minha Vida: estratégia no enfrentamento da crise de 2008

This work aims to present an analysis of the Minha Casa Minha Vida, proposed by Lula's government in 2009, highlighting their main impacts for the country in the period following the international financial crisis of 2008, in addition to demonstrating the perception of different inserted agents in context. We argue that the Program implementation was a strategy for the country to overcome the crisis, moving the economy to stimulate consumption, investment and job creation. This work also analyzes the Lula government, responsible for program implementation, and seeks to show its characteristic points that led to the success of the Minha Casa Minha Vida. Finally, we demonstrate that the 2008 crisis has a side still little explored, that goes beyond the economic data that generated and can be regarded as the mainstream economic thinking crisis

Crises cambiais e fragilidade financeira externa: uma interpretação minskyana aplicada à economia brasileira entre 1999 e 2013

Pós-graduação em Economia - FCLAR