27 resultados para 340401 Economic Models and Forecasting

em Repositório Institucional UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista "Julio de Mesquita Filho"


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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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The optimized allocation of protective devices in strategic points of the circuit improves the quality of the energy supply and the system reliability index. This paper presents a nonlinear integer programming (NLIP) model with binary variables, to deal with the problem of protective device allocation in the main feeder and all branches of an overhead distribution circuit, to improve the reliability index and to provide customers with service of high quality and reliability. The constraints considered in the problem take into account technical and economical limitations, such as coordination problems of serial protective devices, available equipment, the importance of the feeder and the circuit topology. The use of genetic algorithms (GAs) is proposed to solve this problem, using a binary representation that does (1) or does not (0) show allocation of protective devices (reclosers, sectionalizers and fuses) in predefined points of the circuit. Results are presented for a real circuit (134 busses), with the possibility of protective device allocation in 29 points. Also the ability of the algorithm in finding good solutions while improving significantly the indicators of reliability is shown. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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This study assessed the effect of different cage stocking densities on the performance of Italian quails in the laying period. Two hundred and sixty four quails with 30 weeks of age and 280g mean body weight were used. Birds were randomly assigned to 96 x 33 x 16 cm cages and distributed in a randomized block design with 4 treatments (12, 15, 18 and 21 quails per cage or 264, 211, 176 and 151 cm² per quail, respectively) and 4 replicates. Birds were given feed and water ad libitum and submitted to the same experimental conditions. The experimental diet was formulated based on NRC (1994) recommendations. There were no significant differences among treatments for feed conversion per egg mass (kg:kg), percentage of broken eggs and mortality. There was a linear reduction (p<0.05) in egg weight, feed consumption, percentage of production, egg mass and feed conversion per dozen with the increase in stocking density. The gain per house per day was better at the cage density of 151 cm² per bird. However, the density of 211 cm² per bird provided the best gain per bird per day, because this stocking density had better productive indexes when compared with the other treatments.

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It is well known that experimental data, coming from solar and atmospheric neutrino detectors and also from experiments which look for neutrino oscillations. strongly suggest that neutrinos must have a mass different from zero. However at least the solar and/or the atmospheric neutrino data can be related to new flavor changing interactions beyond the standard model instead to the finite mass of neutrinos. This new physics may induce i) extra effects in neutrino-matter interactions, ii) CP violation in pion and lepton decays and, iii) muonium to antimuonium transition. We give two examples of models in which all those effects arise even with strictly massless neutrinos: the 331 model and multi-Higgs doublet extension of the standard model (mHDM) with flavor changing neutral currents in the charged lepton sector. It means that in this kind of models if neutrino masses were eventually needed, they will be independent of the parameters of the new interactions.

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Massive gravity models in (2 + 1) dimensions, such as those obtained by adding to Einstein's gravity the usual Fierz-Pauli, or the more complicated Ricci scalar squared (R-2), terms, are tree level unitary. Interesting enough these seemingly harmless systems have their unitarity spoiled when they are augmented by a Chern-Simons term. Furthermore, if the massive topological term is added to R + R-munu(2) gravity, or to R + R-munu(2), + R-2 gravity (higher-derivative gravity), which are nonunitary at the tree level, the resulting models remain nonunitary. Therefore, unlike the common belief, as well as the claims in the literature, the coexistence between three-dimensional massive gravity models and massive topological terms is conflicting.

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We consider a real Lagrangian off-critical submodel describing the soliton sector of the so-called conformal affine sl(3)((1)) Toda model coupled to matter fields. The theory is treated as a constrained system in the context of Faddeev-Jackiw and the symplectic schemes. We exhibit the parent Lagrangian nature of the model from which generalizations of the sine-Gordon (GSG) or the massive Thirring (GMT) models are derivable. The dual description of the model is further emphasized by providing the relationships between bilinears of GMT spinors and relevant expressions of the GSG fields. In this way we exhibit the strong/weak coupling phases and the (generalized) soliton/particle correspondences of the model. The sl(n)((1)) case is also outlined. (C) 2002 American Institute of Physics.

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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The effects of nonlinear scalar field couplings on elastic proton-nucleus scattering observables are investigated using a relativistic impulse approximation. Nonlinear couplings affect in a nontrivial way the effective nucleon mass and the nuclear scalar and vector densities. Modifications on the densities might have observable consequences on scattering observables. Our investigation indicates that the description of the observables for the reactions p-O-16 and p-Ca-40 at 200 MeV are not greatly modified with the use of nonlinear models in comparison with the description using linear models.

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Linear mixed effects models are frequently used to analyse longitudinal data, due to their flexibility in modelling the covariance structure between and within observations. Further, it is easy to deal with unbalanced data, either with respect to the number of observations per subject or per time period, and with varying time intervals between observations. In most applications of mixed models to biological sciences, a normal distribution is assumed both for the random effects and for the residuals. This, however, makes inferences vulnerable to the presence of outliers. Here, linear mixed models employing thick-tailed distributions for robust inferences in longitudinal data analysis are described. Specific distributions discussed include the Student-t, the slash and the contaminated normal. A Bayesian framework is adopted, and the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithms are used to carry out the posterior analyses. An example with data on orthodontic distance growth in children is discussed to illustrate the methodology. Analyses based on either the Student-t distribution or on the usual Gaussian assumption are contrasted. The thick-tailed distributions provide an appealing robust alternative to the Gaussian process for modelling distributions of the random effects and of residuals in linear mixed models, and the MCMC implementation allows the computations to be performed in a flexible manner.

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It is shown that the affine Toda models (AT) constitute a gauge fixed version of the conformal affine Toda model (CAT). This result enables one to map every solution of the AT models into an infinite number of solutions of the corresponding CAT models, each one associated to a point of the orbit of the conformal group. The Hirota τ-functions are introduced and soliton solutions for the AT and CAT models associated to SL̂ (r+1) and SP̂ (r) are constructed.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Additive and nonadditive genetic effects on preweaning weight gain (PWG) of a commercial crossbred population were estimated using different genetic models and estimation methods. The data set consisted of 103,445 records on purebred and crossbred Nelore-Hereford calves raised under pasture conditions on farms located in south, southeast, and middle west Brazilian regions. In addition to breed additive and dominance effects, the models including different epistasis covariables were tested. Models considering joint additive and environment (latitude) by genetic effects interactions were also applied. In a first step, analyses were carried out under animal models. In a second step, preadjusted records were analyzed using ordinary least squares (OLS) and ridge regression (RR). The results reinforced evidence that breed additive and dominance effects are not sufficient to explain the observed variability in preweaning traits of Bos taurus x Bos indicus calves, and that genotype x environment interaction plays an important role in the evaluation of crossbred calves. Data were ill-conditioned to estimate the effects of genotype x environment interactions. Models including these effects presented multicolinearity problems. In this case, RR seemed to be a powerful tool for obtaining more plausible and stable estimates. Estimated prediction error variances and variance inflation factors were drastically reduced, and many effects that were not significant under ordinary least squares became significant under RR. Predictions of PWG based on RR estimates were more acceptable from a biological perspective. In temperate and subtropical regions, calves with intermediate genetic compositions (close to 1/2 Nelore) exhibited greater predicted PWG. In the tropics, predicted PWG increased linearly as genotype got closer to Nelore. ©2006 American Society of Animal Science. All rights reserved.

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Structural health monitoring (SHM) is related to the ability of monitoring the state and deciding the level of damage or deterioration within aerospace, civil and mechanical systems. In this sense, this paper deals with the application of a two-step auto-regressive and auto-regressive with exogenous inputs (AR-ARX) model for linear prediction of damage diagnosis in structural systems. This damage detection algorithm is based on the. monitoring of residual error as damage-sensitive indexes, obtained through vibration response measurements. In complex structures there are. many positions under observation and a large amount of data to be handed, making difficult the visualization of the signals. This paper also investigates data compression by using principal component analysis. In order to establish a threshold value, a fuzzy c-means clustering is taken to quantify the damage-sensitive index in an unsupervised learning mode. Tests are made in a benchmark problem, as proposed by IASC-ASCE with different damage patterns. The diagnosis that was obtained showed high correlation with the actual integrity state of the structure. Copyright © 2007 by ABCM.