163 resultados para Incerteza agregada


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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar como o processo de inovações tecnológicas é tratado pela Teoria dos Sistemas Complexos. A abordagem neoclássica tradicional, ao partir de pressupostos bastante restritivos sobre os agentes e os mercados, não é capaz de fornecer explicações plausíveis aos vários problemas econômicos da vida real. Ao desconsiderar a dinâmica dos fenômenos econômicos, essa abordagem foi incapaz de incorporar os aspectos do processo de inovação e mudança tecnológica. A abordagem evolucionária, nesse sentido, ao considerar a racionalidade limitada, incerteza e heterogeneidade presente em ambientes que exibem inovação, foi capaz de fornecer um tratamento mais próximo da realidade. A inovação é, então, entendida como uma mudança descontínua que altera as condições estruturais gerando desenvolvimento, progresso e evolução no sistema. Já abordagem dos sistemas complexos, ao apresentar um arcabouço não reducionista e que se fundamenta sobre uma perspectiva evolucionária e sistêmica, concebe a economia como um sistema composto por agentes heterogêneos que interagem entre si. Apesar do ambiente de incerteza nas decisões tomadas, os agentes procuram se adaptar às informações recebidas do meio e se auto-organizarem gerando com isso novos padrões de auto-ordenamento e estruturas emergentes. A modelagem, nesse sentido, tem por principal objetivo descobrir as propriedades emergentes resultantes da interação entre os agentes no sistema. Por fim chega-se a conclusão de que as inovações tecnológicas apresentaram resultados mais satisfatórios e mais condizentes quando analisadas dentro dessa perspectiva agent-based.

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Organizado por João José Caluzi e Silvia Regina Quijadas Aro Zuliani, este livro traz uma série de estudos nos quais os autores procuram discutir o ensino da Química à luz da História da Ciência e das metodologias científicas consagradas pelas instituições de ensino brasileiras na disseminação dos conhecimentos sobre a matéria, sempre com um viés analítico e por vezes bastante crítico. A coletânea aborda desde uma proposta de integração da Filosofia da Química no currículo e na didática da matéria até a prevenção de acidentes na execução de experimentos de Química no ensino médio, passando por um balanço crítico sobre as obras de Química adotadas no Programa Nacional do Livro Didático para o Ensino Médio e da utilização e avaliação dos objetos de aprendizagem por professores de Química nas salas de aula brasileiras. A obra também fala do ensino da Química do ponto de vista mais específico, como nos artigos que discutem os pressupostos históricos e filosóficos sobre o princípio da incerteza, a tentativa de uma leitura kuhniana do conceito de substância e o estudo do termo densidade como obstáculo verbal à compreensão dos conceitos.

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O autor tenta mostrar que Ressurreição, romance publicado por Machado de Assis em 1872, não apenas diverge em parte do gosto literário vigente na época como instaura uma nova temática na tradição romanesca brasileira, que era, então, ainda bastante incipiente: a dúvida. Segundo o pesquisador, por meio de uma técnica que ao mesmo tempo explica os expedientes narrativos e conta a história do protagonista, o narrador consegue fazer confluir para o campo da incerteza tanto o ponto de vista quanto a perspectiva do herói. Há por isso, em Ressurreição, certa suspensão da realidade, que para o pesquisador afasta a obra das abordagens convencionais do romance urbano do romantismo brasileiro e a aproxima do romance mais moderno que se fazia na Europa. Ali, essa modalidade literária adquiriu status de gênero burguês por excelência, por expressar os valores, os costumes e os anseios dessa classe e ainda servir como vigoroso instrumento de análise da nova civilização do capital. Do mesmo modo, para o autor, o romance de Machado, ao redefinir seus próprios procedimentos estruturais e reelaborar sua temática, sofisticando a percepção da realidade, logra promover uma densa análise crítica dos indivíduos e de seus interesses subjacentes às interações sociais. É, neste sentido, um dos embriões dos grandes romances da fase madura do escritor carioca

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Diatraea saccharalis Fabr. (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) is a major sugarcane pest in Brazil. The management of infested areas is based on the release of Cotesia flavipes (Cameron) (Hymenoptera: Braconidae), a parasitoid of D. saccharalis larvae, but there are doubts about the effectiveness of C. flavipes, primarily regarding its rate of dispersal in sugarcane fields. Thus, the objective of this study was to evaluate the dispersal of C. flavipes in a sugarcane field and suggest a release method that provides higher parasitoid efficiency. The study was carried out in four areas of approximately 1 ha, in which stalk pieces containing 20 D. saccharalis larvae were distributed in a rectangular grid, and 12,000 C. flavipes adults were released at four points, that were 50 m apart and 25 m from the field border. Three days later, the D. saccharalis larvae were recovered and kept in the laboratory until they reached pupal stage or C. flavipes emergence. Parasitism varied from 13.2% to 42.8%. The random distribution of parasitized larvae was found in one assay. In three areas, the parasitized larvae showed an aggregated distribution, with a range of 15 to 25 m. Since the parasite's success is directly linked to parasitoid dispersion, it would be interesting to move the release points to 30 m from each other because the dispersal may happen in a 15 m radius.

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Phosphorus is one of the limiting nutrients for sugarcane development in Brazilian soils. The spatial variability of this nutrient is great, defined by the properties that control its adsorption and desorption reactions. Spatial estimates to characterize this variability are based on geostatistical interpolation. However, inherent uncertainties in the procedure of these estimates are related to the variability structure of the property under study and the sample configuration of the area. Thus, the assessment of the uncertainty of estimates associated with the spatial distribution of available P (Plabile) is decisive to optimize the use of phosphate fertilizers. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance of sequential Gaussian simulation (sGs) and ordinary kriging (OK) in the modeling of uncertainty in available P estimates. A sampling grid with 626 points was established in a 200-ha experimental sugarcane field in Tabapuã, São Paulo State. The sGs algorithm generated 200 realizations. The sGs realizations reproduced the statistics and the distribution of the sample data. The G statistic (0.81) indicated good agreement between the values of simulated and observed fractions. The sGs realizations preserved the spatial variability of Plabile without the smoothing effect of the OK map. The accuracy in the reproduction of the variogram of the sample data obtained by the sGs realizations was on average 240 times higher than that obtained by OK. The uncertainty map, obtained by OK, showed less variation in the study area than that obtained by sGs. Thus, the evaluation of uncertainties by sGs was more informative and can be used to define and delimit specific management areas more precisely.

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The goal of this paper is to present a methodology for quality control of horizontal geodetic networks through robustness and covariance analysis. In the proposed methodology, the positional accuracy of each point is estimated by a possible bias in their position (based on robustness analysis), in addition to its own positional precision (uncertainty) (through covariance analysis), being a measure independently from the choice of the datum. Besides presenting the theoretical development of the method, its application is demonstrated in a numerical example. The results indicate that, in general, the greater the distance of an unknown point to the control(s) point(s) of the network, the greater is the propagation of random errors on this unknown point, and the smaller the number of redundant observations around a unknown point, the greater the influence of possible (undetected) non-random errors on this point.

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Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Produção Vegetal) - FCAV

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Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

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Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Produção Vegetal) - FCAV

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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This paper has as subject autism, and sought to verify how the process of teaching and learning of students with autism occurs in a special education school. The Infantile Autism is today sorted as one of the “Global Developmental Disorders (PDD)” and is characterized by a severe and global impairment in several areas of development, such as reciprocal social interaction skills, communication skills and presence of stereotypic behavior, interests and activities. This study aimed to identify the teaching methodology used with adolescents with autism in special education and see in what ways this methodology assists in the teaching and learning of these students. To this end, participated in this study a teacher, expert in this issue, and three students with autism in a Special Education School located within the State of São Paulo. For data collection, 19 observations of activities performed by students with autism in the classroom were conducted and a semi-structured interview with the specialized teacher was applied. The results revealed that the teacher mentioned above does not use any specific teaching methodology to assist in the teaching and learning of these students, although there are some specific methodologies for individuals with autism, which are used in special education schools. Thus, there is a gap in the teaching process on the part of the teacher and an uncertainty about the learning process of these students with autism in this institution.

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The focus of this research is centered on organic information production, sharingand use on the enterprise decision making process. The information on the present economy becomes value source for organizations. The organic information is produced on the organization s internal environment been a product of the activities made by execution its functions. Knowing the elements that involve this process gives a great help to managers once the decision making process is permeated by conflicts and different perceptions. Therefore, the organic information can reduce these conflicts on organizational contexts, because it reduces the uncertainness, propitiates more security and more trustworthiness to the decision making process, besides it gives dynamism to people s time involved on the process. The investigated universe was composed by the companies affiliated to Construnova Net, from construction material segment, located at Marilia Region s cities, Sao Paulo State, because it is an important segment which influences the local and regional economy. The methodological proceedings used are based on the qualitative approach which method is related to descriptive and exploratory research. As data collecting instruments were elaborated a structured questionnaire with closed questions and an interview s syllabus which contents are related to the research s aims. As analysis proceedings for the collected data and also to consider the qualitative approach it was chosen the Contents Analysis method from Bardin and more specifically the Categorical Analysis . Consequently, we conclude that it is deficient in production of organic information, or to produce documents that prove and control the activities that are developed within the organization is not satisfactory. The decision usually is not subsidized by organic information. Accordingly the study points out the deficiency of the perception of the importance of the organic type information as an aid to decision making and al

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The information retrieval process involves subjective, imprecise and vague concepts, such as "information need", "relevance", and the very concept of "information". The main information retrieval models treat these concepts accurately, represented by a single numerical value. The fuzzy logic, while operating with the uncertainty of natural phenomena in a systematic and rigorous manner, represents a promising alternative to solve some problems related to information retrieval. This paper presents the fuzzy logic and some examples of its use in information retrieval systems (IRS).