170 resultados para Bayesian model selection


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This study aimed to use the generalized linear models with probit and logit link function to evaluate early pregnancy, and to observe the effects on genetic variability and on sire selection when different ages are adopted in the definition of this trait. Early pregnancy was studied at 15 (EP15), and 21 (EP21) months. The analysis was done in R software. Pearson correlations (PC), between genetic predicted values and percentage of bulls in common considering only 10% of bulls with higher genetic values (TOP 10), between classification by logit and probit models and in each model among EP15 and EP21, were calculated. The heritability for EP15 and EP21 were close between models, except for EP15 using probit link function. PC and TOP10 among models were high. The Akaike and Bayesian criteria reported was similar between models. TOP10, considering the same model, among EP15-EP21 were moderated between EP15-EP21.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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We conducted a two-way selection experiment in a composite rabbit population to investigate the responses to selection for postweaning ADG and feed conversion (FC). Two generations of crossing, followed by four generations of random pair matings, preceded three generations of selection. Selection was practiced within four lines: high-feed conversion (HFC), low-feed conversion (LFC), high gain (HG), and low gain (LG). Data on 1,446 rabbits from the random mating and selection generations were fitted to an animal model to estimate heritabilities of and the genetic correlation between ADG and FC. The two-trait model included rabbit and common litter random effects and line, generation, and sex fixed effects. Estimates of heritability of ADG and FC were .48 and .29, respectively, and the genetic correlation between them was -.82. Common litter environmental effects accounted for a proportion of .11 and . 13 of the phenotypic variation of the two traits, respectively. For ADG (in g/d) the regressions of mean breeding values on generation number during the selection period were 1.23 ± .12 (P < .01) in the HG line and -.86 ± .12 (P < .01) in the LG line; the regressions for FC (in g feed/g gain) were -.07 ± .01 (P < .01) in the HFC line and .03 ± .01 (P < .05) in the LFC line. Selection for ADG was effective in improving ADG and FC.

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Linear mixed effects models have been widely used in analysis of data where responses are clustered around some random effects, so it is not reasonable to assume independence between observations in the same cluster. In most biological applications, it is assumed that the distributions of the random effects and of the residuals are Gaussian. This makes inferences vulnerable to the presence of outliers. Here, linear mixed effects models with normal/independent residual distributions for robust inferences are described. Specific distributions examined include univariate and multivariate versions of the Student-t, the slash and the contaminated normal. A Bayesian framework is adopted and Markov chain Monte Carlo is used to carry out the posterior analysis. The procedures are illustrated using birth weight data on rats in a texicological experiment. Results from the Gaussian and robust models are contrasted, and it is shown how the implementation can be used for outlier detection. The thick-tailed distributions provide an appealing robust alternative to the Gaussian process in linear mixed models, and they are easily implemented using data augmentation and MCMC techniques.

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A total of 20,065 weights recorded on 3016 Nelore animals were used to estimate covariance functions for growth from birth to 630 days of age, assuming a parametric correlation structure to model within-animal correlations. The model of analysis included fixed effects of contemporary groups and age of dam as quadratic covariable. Mean trends were taken into account by a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of animal age. Genetic effects of the animal and its dam and maternal permanent environmental effects were modelled by random regressions on Legendre polynomials of age at recording. Changes in direct permanent environmental effect variances were modelled by a polynomial variance function, together with a parametric correlation function to account for correlations between ages. Stationary and nonstationary models were used to model within-animal correlations between different ages. Residual variances were considered homogeneous or heterogeneous, with changes modelled by a step or polynomial function of age at recording. Based on Bayesian information criterion, a model with a cubic variance function combined with a nonstationary correlation function for permanent environmental effects, with 49 parameters to be estimated, fitted best. Modelling within-animal correlations through a parametric correlation structure can describe the variation pattern adequately. Moreover, the number of parameters to be estimated can be decreased substantially compared to a model fitting random regression on Legendre polynomial of age. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The analysis of interactions between lineages at varying levels of genetic divergence can provide insights into the process of speciation through the accumulation of incompatible mutations. Ring species, and especially the Ensatina eschscholtzii system exemplify this approach. The plethodontid salamanders E. eschscholtzii xanthoptica and E. eschscholtzii platensis hybridize in the central Sierran foothills of California. We compared the genetic structure across two transects (southern and northern Calaveras Co.), one of which was resampled over 20 years, and examined diagnostic molecular markers (eight allozyme loci and mitochondrial DNA) and a diagnostic quantitative trait (color pattern). Key results across all studies were: (1) cline centers for all markers were coincident and the zones were narrow, with width estimates of 730 m to 2000 m; (2) cline centers at the northern Calaveras transect were coincident between 1981 and 2001, demonstrating repeatability over five generations; (3) there were very few if any putative F1s, but a relatively high number of backcrossed individuals in the central portion of transects: and (4) we found substantial linkage disequilibrium in all three studies and strong heterozygote deficit both in northern Calaveras, in 2001, and southern Calaveras. Both linkage disequilibrium and heterozygote deficit showed maximum values near the center of the zones. Using estimates of cline width and dispersal, we infer strong selection against hybrids. This is sufficient to promote accumulation of differences at loci that are neutral or under divergent selection, but would still allow for introgression of adaptive alleles. The evidence for strong but incomplete isolation across this centrally located contact is consistent with theory suggesting a gradual increase in postzygotic incompatibility between allopatric populations subject to divergent selection and reinforces the value of Ensatina as a system for the study of divergence and speciation at multiple stages. © 2005 The Society for the Study of Evolution. All rights reserved.

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Rhodococcus equi is a Gram-positive, facultative intracellular bacterium which infects macrophages and causes rhodococcal pneumonia and enteritis in foals. Recently, this agent has been recognized as an opportunistic pathogen for immunocompromised humans. Several murine experimental models have been used to study R. equi infection. High (H IV-A) and Low (L IV-A) antibody (Ab)-producers mice were obtained by bi-directional genetic selections for their ability to produce antibodies against sheep and human erythrocytes (Selection IV-A). These lines maintain their phenotypes of high and low responders also for other antigens than those of selection (multispeciflc effect). A higher macrophage activity in L IV-A mice has been described for several intracellular infectious agents, which could be responsible for their intense macrophage antigens (Ag)-handling and low Ab production. Due to these differences, L IV-A mice were found to exhibit a better performance to trigger an effective immune response towards intracellular pathogens. The objective of this work was to characterize the immune response of Selection IV-A against R. equi. H IV-A and L IV-A mice were infected with 2.0 × 10 6 CFU of ATCC 33701 +R. equi by intravenous route. With regards to bacterial clearance and survival assays, L IV-A mice were more resistant than H IV-A mice to virulent R. equi. L IV-A mice presented a higher hydrogen peroxide (H 2O 2) and nitric oxide (NO) endogenous production by splenic macrophages than H IV-A mice. L IV-A expressed the most intense cellular response, available by the Delayed-Type Hypersensitivity (DTH) reaction, which activated macrophages and produced more H 2O 2 and NO. The three times higher specific antibodies titres in H IV-A indicated that Selection IV-A maintained the multispecific effect and the polygenic control of humoral and cellular responses also to R. equi.

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In order to evaluate the flying capacity and nest site selection of Angiopolybia pallens (Lepeletier, 1836), we made 17 incursions (136 hours of sample efforts) in Atlantic Rain Forest environments in Bahia state. Our data show this wasp prefers to nest on wide leaves of bushes and short trees (nests between 0.30 and 3m from the ground) placed in half-shady environments (clearings and shadowed cultivations). The logistic regression model using Quasi-Newton method provided a good description of the flying capacity observed in A. pallens (x 2 = 91.52; p≪0.001). According to the logistic regression model, the A. pallens flight autonomy is low, flying for short distances and with an effective radius of action of about 24m measured from their nests, which means a foraging area of nearly 1,800 m 2.

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Mice genetically selected for high (H) and low (L) antibody production (Selection IV-A) were used as murine experimental model. The aim of the present work was to evaluate the macrophagic activity and to characterize the immune response in Mycobacterium bovis-AN5 infected mice (3×10 7 bacteria). The response profile previously observed in such strains was not similar to that obtained during M. bovis infection; however, it corroborated works carried out using Selection I, which is very similar to Selection IV-A regarding infection by M. tuberculosis and Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG). Considering bacterial recovery, LIV-A mice showed higher control of the infectious process in the lungs than in the spleen, whereas HIV-A mice presented more resistance in the spleen. With respect to macrophagic activity, hydrogen peroxide (H2O 2) was probably not involved in the infection control since there was an inhibition in the production of this metabolite. Nitric oxide (NO) and TNF-α production seemed to be important in the control of bacterial replication and varied according to the strain, period and organ. Evaluation of the antibody production indicated that the multi-specific effect commonly observed in these strains was not the same in the response to M. bovis. Antibody concentrations were higher in LIV-A than in HIV-A mice at the beginning of the infection, being similar afterwards. Such data were compared with delayed-type hypersensitivity (DTH), which was more intense in HIV-A than in LIV-A mice, indicating that antibody production is independent of the capability to trigger DTH reactions and that cellular and humoral responses to M. bovis antigens show a polygenic control and an independent quantitative genetic regulation. Differences were observed among organs and metabolites, suggesting that different mechanisms play an important role in this infection in natural heterogeneous populations, indicating that NO, TNF-α and Th1 cytokines are involved in the infection control.

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Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to present designs for an accelerated life test (ALT). Design/methodology/approach - Bayesian methods and simulation Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) methods were used. Findings - In the paper a Bayesian method based on MCMC for ALT under EW distribution (for life time) and Arrhenius models (relating the stress variable and parameters) was proposed. The paper can conclude that it is a reasonable alternative to the classical statistical methods since the implementation of the proposed method is simple, not requiring advanced computational understanding and inferences on the parameters can be made easily. By the predictive density of a future observation, a procedure was developed to plan ALT and also to verify if the conformance fraction of the manufactured process reaches some desired level of quality. This procedure is useful for statistical process control in many industrial applications. Research limitations/implications - The results may be applied in a semiconductor manufacturer. Originality/value - The Exponentiated-Weibull-Arrhenius model has never before been used to plan an ALT. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

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Objective of present work was study a influence of environmental and genetic effects over characteristics of milk total production (PL) and lactation duration (DL), from 2572 lactations of 477 Guzerat cows, collected since 1957 to 2002, in Rio de Janeiro State. Environmental effects were analyzed by an statistical model that include male randomized effect, fixed effect of contemporary group, and the (co)variables age of cow (lineal and quadratic) and lactation duration. The contemporary group had significant effect just for PL. Bayesian inference was used to obtain estimatives of genetic parameters over an animal model, in which was included as fixed effect the contemporary group and the covariables age of cow (linear and quadratic). The estimates of heritability and repeatability were 0.36 and 0.75 for PL and 0.29 and 0.36 for DL, respectively. The estimated genetic correlation was 0.97. The heritability estimates for PL and DL were moderate, indicating that it is possible answer to the selection of the characteristics under study. The genetic correlation was high and indicates that selection for increase milk production will be accompanied with increase in lactation duration.

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We introduce a new method to improve Markov maps by means of a Bayesian approach. The method starts from an initial map model, wherefrom a likelihood function is defined which is regulated by a temperature-like parameter. Then, the new constraints are added by the use of Bayes rule in the prior distribution. We applied the method to the logistic map of population growth of a single species. We show that the population size is limited for all ranges of parameters, allowing thus to overcome difficulties in interpretation of the concept of carrying capacity known as the Levins paradox. © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.

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In Brazil, due to the breeding season for Thoroughbred, the reproductive data are normally truncate, since the breeders try to get animals that were born at the beginning of the breeding season in order to take their competitive advantages (more developed, mature and trained animals) compared to animals born later in the same breeding season. To analyze these data suitable methods should be used. Then, this paper aims to compare three methodologies: the method of maximum restricted likelihood, using MTDFREML, bayesian analysis without censured data by software MTGSAM and bayesian analysis with censured data by software LMCD, to evaluate age at first conception in thoroughbred mares, in order to verify its impact on the choice of stallions during selection. The database contained 3509 records for age at first conception (months) for thoroughbred mares. The heritability estimates were 0.23, 0.30 and 0.0926 (log scale), for MTDF, MTGSAM and LMCD, respectively. Considering all animals in the pedigree (6713), ranking correlations varied from 0.91 to 0.99. When only stallions were considered (656), those varied from 0.48 to 0.99 (considering different percentages of selected males) between evalua-tion methods. The highest changes in the general classification were observed when LMCD was compared to the other two methods. As the linear censured model is the most suitable for trait analysis with censured data, it was observed that censure information would lead to the choice of different animals during the selection process, when compared to the two other methodologies.

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This paper presents a mixed-integer linear programming model to solve the conductor size selection and reconductoring problem in radial distribution systems. In the proposed model, the steady-state operation of the radial distribution system is modeled through linear expressions. The use of a mixed-integer linear model guarantees convergence to optimality using existing optimization software. The proposed model and a heuristic are used to obtain the Pareto front of the conductor size selection and reconductoring problem considering two different objective functions. The results of one test system and two real distribution systems are presented in order to show the accuracy as well as the efficiency of the proposed solution technique. © 1969-2012 IEEE.