GIS-based analytical tools for transport planning: spatial regression models for transportation demand forecast

Considering the importance of spatial issues in transport planning, the main objective of this study was to analyze the results obtained from different approaches of spatial regression models. In the case of spatial autocorrelation, spatial dependence patterns should be incorporated in the models, since that dependence may affect the predictive power of these models. The results obtained with the spatial regression models were also compared with the results of a multiple linear regression model that is typically used in trips generation estimations. The findings support the hypothesis that the inclusion of spatial effects in regression models is important, since the best results were obtained with alternative models (spatial regression models or the ones with spatial variables included). This was observed in a case study carried out in the city of Porto Alegre, in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, in the stages of specification and calibration of the models, with two distinct datasets.

Influences of the harvest season on analytical characteristics of syrah grapes and wines produced in the northeast region of Brazil

The present study evaluated the main physical and chemical characteristics of Syrah grapes, coming from the tropical region of São Francisco river valley, harvested at different times and their relationship with analytical characteristics of resulting wines. Grapes came from the first half of 2009 harvest, collected at Casa Nova - Bahia, a semi-arid and hot region, comprising an interval from 84 days after pruning (84 dap) to the beginning of grape over-ripening, 133 days after pruning (133 dap). Harvests at 84, 91, 98, 105, 112, 119, 126 and 133 dap, were analyzed for pH, soluble solids and acidity in grapes, which were then processed for wine production. Maximum sugar/acidity ratio (s/a = 56) were observed in grapes harvested between 126 and 133 dap, coincided with the highest concentration of anthocyanins (851 mg L-1 ) and total tannins (2.6 g L-1 ) in the resulting wines, indicating that grapes collected between 126 and 133 dap showed the best potential for winemaking in the tropical climate of São Francisco river valley. This result was confirmed by the analytical characterization of wines, that, between 126 and 133 dap, showed 12.8% alcohol, 31 g L-1 dry extract, 5.6 g L-1 ashes and a TPI of 58, using only one pumping per day, for 5 days maceration. Syrah grapes considered in the present work presented a good evolution of maturation, and grapes harvested between 126 and 133 days after pruning, showed the best oenological potential for the development of red wine. The use of pH and soluble solids appeared useful parameters in the estimation of maturation degree and quality potential of grapes for winemaking.