103 resultados para incerteza


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Pós-graduação em Engenharia Mecânica - FEG

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A fuzzy ruled-based system was developed in this study and resulted in an index indicating the level of uncertainty related to commercial transactions between cassava growers and their dealers. The fuzzy system was developed based on Transaction Cost Economics approach. The fuzzy system was developed from input variables regarding information sharing between grower and dealer on “Demand/purchase Forecasting”, “Production Forecasting” and “Production Innovation”. The output variable is the level of uncertainty regarding the transaction between seller and buyer agent, which may serve as a system for detecting inefficiencies. Evidences from 27 cassava growers registered in the Regional Development Offices of Tupa and Assis, São Paulo, Brazil, and 48 of their dealers supported the development of the system. The mathematical model indicated that 55% of the growers present a Very High level of uncertainty, 33% present Medium or High. The others present Low or Very Low level of uncertainty. From the model, simulations of external interferences can be implemented in order to improve the degree of uncertainty and, thus, lower transaction costs.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

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Crowdfunding is a collective financing tool that has gained notoriety in recent years. Among its qualities, it allows founders easy access to data from previous projects, which tends to reduce the information asymmetry and thereby provide greater certainty for project. As this is a mechanism that, in a way, breaks the paradigm of traditional systems of financing, it is quite relevant in evolutionary economics studies. Other factors that make the common ground between crowdfunding and the evolutionary economics. The goal of this study is to evaluate the crowdfunding's potential in selecting projects properly and being an alternative to traditional sources of financing to entrepreneurs

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The sugar cane plantation expands its borders each year, throughout the national territory. Thus, increases the amount of biomass that will to be exploited by man in sugar and alcohol produce and also by other organisms, which will have food in abundance. The growth of mechanized harvesting, with the consequent decrease in burning of straw and the expansion of the sucroalcooleiro sector are causing changes into entomofauna in certain areas or regions of sugar cane plantation. One of the new threats to the sugar cane plantations in southcentral region, causing uncertainty and concern to farmers, is the giant worm, Telchin licus, known in Brazil since 1927, in the Northeast of Brazil, is considered a major pest of cane sugar. In 2007 it was first recorded in the state of São Paulo, which accounts for 60% of the country's crops. Whereas until then there is not much information about their management and control, the aim of this review is to gather information on the basis for its control within the context of Integrated Pest Management of cane sugar.

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Water management has in the watershed plans an important tool to plan the territory and adjust the activities develop over it to the natural resources availability. The incorporation of uncertainty analysis associated with hydrological modelling predictions is a manner to simulate scenarios and work with chances and probabilities that certain events happens inside these plans. Using stochastic methods is possible to consider uncertainty from estimations and even model it. Stochastic methods developed considerably during the last 30 years, but its applications to real-world problems have been limited, and did not turn into routine in hydrology. This paper brings an overview from eminent hydrologists about this subject and discuss the Brazilian and Paulista situation in the scope of groundwater monitoring.

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Pós-graduação em Engenharia Mecânica - FEG

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The torsional stiffness of chassis is one of the most important properties of a vehicle's structure and therefore its measurement is important. For the first time, the torsional stiffness was considered on the design of a prototype Baja SAE of the team from UNESP - FEG, Equipe Piratas do Vale Bardahl. According to the team's opinion, the increase of stiffness on this prototype, called MB1114, made possible a great improvement in its performance during competitions. In this work, the experimental evaluation of the torsional stiffness from this prototype is performed, detailing the analysis of results, as well as, the hysteresis' effect, least-squares regression and uncertainty analysis. It also shows that it is possible to measure the torsional stiffness of chassis with a low experimental uncertainty without expending many resources. The test rig costed R$ 32,50 due the reuse of materials and the use of instrumentation already available on campus. Furthermore, it is simple to produce and can be easily stocked. Those features are important for Baja and Formula SAE teams. Lastly, the measured value is used to validate the finite element analysis performed by the team during this prototype's design, because similar studies will be performed for the new cars. After investigating the finite element analysis, one result 13,5% higher than the measured value was reached. This difference is believed to be occurred due the imperfections of the finite element model, in other words, for not been possible to simulate every phenomena present on the real model