96 resultados para probability of informed trading


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The prime movers behind the prehistoric colonization of Remote Oceania, and in particular the large c. 2000-year temporal gap (i.e. long pause') seen between West and East Polynesia, has long been major point of interest in the Pacific. To address these events and the processes that may have led to the known chronological disparity of these diasporas, we present results from two different, but equally powerful, analytical tools which are used to examine Polynesian seafaring capabilities and trajectories. The first is a statistical model known as Seascape, which simulates voyages, while the second uses ease of eastward travel estimates based on land distribution and wind pattern analysis. These analyses were done with the goal of determining the potential role of environmental factors in the colonization process, particularly as they relate to the long pause. We show that the eastern boundary of West Polynesia, the limit of the initial colonization pulse, is marked by a discontinuity in land distribution, where the distances travelers would have to cross in order to reach islands further to the east become significantly larger. At the same time, in West Polynesia, the frequency and intensity of winds favorable to eastward displacement decrease continuously from west to east. As far as winds are concerned, eastward travel in West Polynesia is favored in the northern and southern areas and much more difficult across the central portion. Favorable winds have a clear seasonality, and eastward displacement along the northern area is much easier under El Nino conditions. Voyaging simulations show that intentional eastward voyages departing from Tonga and Samoa, when undertaken with vessels capable of sailing efficiently against the wind, afford a viable route toward several island groups in East Polynesia, with trips starting in Samoa having a higher probability of success.

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Purpose: This study aimed to evaluate the survival probability of four narrow-diameter implant systems when subjected to fatigue loading. Materials and Methods: Seventy-two narrow-diameter implants to be restored with single-unit crowns were divided into four groups (n = 18): Astra Tech (3.5-mm diameter), with a standard connection (ASC); BioHorizon (3.4-mm diameter), with a standard connection (BSC); Intra-Lock (3.4-mm diameter), with a standard multilobular connection (ISC); and Intra-Lock (3.4-diameter), with a modified square connection (IMC). The corresponding abutments were screwed onto the implants, and standardized metal crowns (maxillary central incisors) were cemented and subjected to step-stress accelerated life testing in water. Use-level probability Weibull curves and reliability for 100,000 cycles at 150 and 200 N (90% two-sided confidence intervals) were calculated. Polarized light and scanning electron microscopes were used to access the failure modes. Results: The calculated survival probability for 100,000 cycles at 150 N was approximately 93% in group ASC, 98% in group BSC, 94% in group ISC, and 99% in group IMC. At 200 N, the survival rate was estimated to be approximately < 0.1% for ASC, 77% for BSC, 34% for ISC, and 93% for IMC. Abutment screw fracture was the main failure mode for all groups. Conclusions: Although the probability of survival was not significantly different among systems at a load of 150 N, a significant decrease was observed at 200 N for all groups except IMC.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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In the presence of developmental dyslexia, there is high probability of motor difficulties being present as well purposes: The purposes of this study were to characterize and compare the motor performance of students with dyslexia with students with good academic performance and to identify the presence of the DCD (developmental coordination disorder) co-occurring with developmental dyslexia. A total of 79 students participated in the research, both genders, from 8 to 11 years old, from 3rd to 5th grades, and were divided into Group I: 19 students with developmental dyslexia and Group II: 60 students with good academic performance. All the students were assessed using “The Bruininks-Oseretsky Test of Motor Proficiency” (second edition), to measure the motor skills and the pattern and differences between groups. The results of this study showed that the motor performance of Group II students was superior to the performance of students of Group I in almost all motor areas assessed but both groups performed less well than they should have for their chronological age. The results of this study indicate that occupational therapists, speech therapists and educators need to be aware of the presence of motor impairments and the need for early intervention in both the academic and clinical environments, in order to ensure that early identification and diagnosis of possible co-occurrences, such as DCD, and the impact on learning to guarantee more appropriate clinical and educational assistance for this population. This may also indicate that increased exposure to movement may be important to limit some of the secondary health consequences in children in Brazil.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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The mechanisms underlying improvement of neuromuscular transmission deficits by glucocorticoids are still a matter of debate despite these compounds have been used for decades in the treatment of autoimmune myasthenic syndromes. Besides their immunosuppressive action, corticosteroids may directly facilitate transmitter release during high-frequency motor nerve activity. This effect coincides with the predominant adenosine A(2A) receptor tonus, which coordinates the interplay with other receptors (e.g. muscarinic) on motor nerve endings to sustain acetylcholine (ACh) release that is required to overcome tetanic neuromuscular depression in myasthenics. Using myographic recordings, measurements of evoked [H-3]ACh release and real-time video microscopy with the FM4-64 fluorescent dye, results show that tonic activation of facilitatory A(2A) receptors by endogenous adenosine accumulated during 50 Hz bursts delivered to the rat phrenic nerve is essential for methylprednisolone (03 mM)-induced transmitter release facilitation, because its effect was prevented by the A(2A) receptor antagonist, ZM 241385 (10 nM). Concurrent activation of the positive feedback loop operated by pirenzepine-sensitive muscarinic M-1 autoreceptors may also play a role, whereas the corticosteroid action is restrained by the activation of co-expressed inhibitory M-2 and Al receptors blocked by methoctramine (0.1 mu M) and DPCPX (2.5 nM), respectively. Inhibition of FM4-64 loading (endocytosis) by methylprednisolone following a brief tetanic stimulus (50 Hz for 5 s) suggests that it may negatively modulate synaptic vesicle turnover, thus increasing the release probability of newly recycled vesicles. Interestingly, bulk endocytosis was rehabilitated when methylprednisolone was co-applied with ZM241385. Data suggest that amplification of neuromuscular transmission by methylprednisolone may involve activation of presynaptic facilitatory adenosine A(2A) receptors by endogenous adenosine leading to synaptic vesicle redistribution. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The arrival of migratory shorebirds on beaches in urban communities in developing countries is a current challenge for the protection of these migrant birds. Nearctic-Neotropical migrants rely on roosting and feeding sites during their stopover on wintering sites in the Southern Hemisphere to acquire sufficient energy to complete their migratory cycles. On the other hand, cities in the Southern Hemisphere are growing rapidly, which results in increasing competition for space between humans and birds, such as for use in beach habitats. In the present study, I analyze the probability for occurrence for Nearctic-Neotropical migratory birds relative to the number of people in southeastern Brazil, the most populated region of South America. The frequency of occurrence of migrants, their distance of tolerance to people and the number of people were recorded in sample areas (circle plots with 20 m radius) on a 9 km stretch of urban beaches from November to February from 2009 to 2013. The probability of occurrence of Nearctic birds decreased as the number of people increased. When the number of people exceeded 20, the probability of occurrence of birds was almost zero. Furthermore, more than 95 % of birds moved off when people were within 16 m of reach. These results are discussed in the context of conservation actions since no management plan has been developed for migrant shorebirds that use urban beaches as stopover or wintering sites in developing countries.

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Seed dispersal effectiveness (SDE) is a conceptual framework that aims at quantifying the contribution of seed dispersal vectors to plant fitness. While it is well recognized that diplochorous dispersal systems, characterized by two successive dispersal steps performed by two different vectors (Phase I=primary seed dispersal and Phase II=secondary seed dispersal) which are common in temperate and tropical regions, little attention has been given to distinguishing the relative contribution of one-phase and two-phase dispersal to overall SDE. This conceptual gap probably results from the lack of a clear methodology to include Phase II dispersal into the calculation of SDE and to quantify its relative contribution. We propose a method to evaluate the relative contribution of one-phase and two-phase dispersal to SDE and determine whether two seed dispersers are better than one. To do so, we used the SDE landscape and an extension of the SDE landscape, the Phase II effect landscape, which measures the direction and magnitude of the Phase II dispersal effect on overall SDE. We used simulated and empirical data from a diplochorous dispersal system in the Peruvian Amazon to illustrate this new approach. Our approach provides the relative contribution of one-phase SDE (SDE1) and two-phase SDE (SDE2) to overall SDE and quantifies how much SDE changes with the addition of Phase II dispersal. Considering that the seed dispersal process is context dependent so that Phase II depends on Phase I, we predict the possible range of variation of SDE according to the variation of the probability of Phase II dispersal. In our specific study system composed of two primate species as primary dispersal vectors and different species of dung beetles as secondary dispersal vectors, the relative contribution of SDE1 and SDE2 to overall SDE varied between plant species. We discuss the context dependency of the Phase II dispersal and the potential applications of our approach. This extension to the conceptual framework of SDE enables quantitative evaluation of the effect of Phase II dispersal on plant fitness and can be easily adapted to other biotic and/or abiotic diplochorous dispersal systems.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)