95 resultados para Probabilistic methodology


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Pós-graduação em Biometria - IBB

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Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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The litchi erineum mite, Aceria litchii (Keifer), is the major pest of litchi, Litchi chinensis Sonnerat (Sapindaceae). This study evaluated the effect of 11 pesticides on the survival of A. litchii as well as on the survival and reproduction of Phytoseius intermedius Evans& McFarlane, the predator most found in association with it in Brazil. The containment of A. litchii in small petri dishes whose bottoms were covered with a solidified paste made of a mixture of gypsum and activated charcoal (9: 1 in volume), kept humid, was shown to be adequate for this type of study. For the evaluation of the effect of pesticides on A. litchii, mites leaving the erinia from the pieces of litchi leaves (removed from the plants approximate to 24 h earlier) were sprayed under a Potter tower and immediately transferred to the 2.5-cm-diameter petri dishes. After 2, 12, 24, and 48 h of the application, the dishes were examined to evaluate the mite survival. The four pesticides causing the highest levels A. litchii mortality, as well as azadirachtin, were tested for the effect on P. intermedius. For this test, experimental units consisted of discs of uninfested litchi leaves also sprayed under a Potter tower before introducing the predators. Survival and oviposition of the predator were evaluated every 24 h for 5 consecutive days; viability of the eggs laid was also evaluated. Highest mortality of A. litchii occurred with the application of fenpyroximate, sulfur, abamectin, and hexythiazox. Azadirachtin was considered moderately harmful to the predator P. intermedius, whereas other pesticides were classified as harmful. Despite the low efficiency of azadirachtin in the control of the pest, its relative selectivity to P. intermedius would encourage the evaluation on field condition, especially for use in organic production systems.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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There are strong uncertainties regarding LAI dynamics in forest ecosystems in response to climate change. While empirical growth & yield models (G&YMs) provide good estimations of tree growth at the stand level on a yearly to decennial scale, process-based models (PBMs) use LAI dynamics as a key variable for enabling the accurate prediction of tree growth over short time scales. Bridging the gap between PBMs and G&YMs could improve the prediction of forest growth and, therefore, carbon, water and nutrient fluxes by combining modeling approaches at the stand level.Our study aimed to estimate monthly changes of leaf area in response to climate variations from sparse measurements of foliage area and biomass. A leaf population probabilistic model (SLCD) was designed to simulate foliage renewal. The leaf population was distributed in monthly cohorts, and the total population size was limited depending on forest age and productivity. Foliage dynamics were driven by a foliation function and the probabilities ruling leaf aging or fall. Their formulation depends on the forest environment.The model was applied to three tree species growing under contrasting climates and soil types. In tropical Brazilian evergreen broadleaf eucalypt plantations, the phenology was described using 8 parameters. A multi-objective evolutionary algorithm method (MOEA) was used to fit the model parameters on litterfall and LAI data over an entire stand rotation. Field measurements from a second eucalypt stand were used to validate the model. Seasonal LAI changes were accurately rendered for both sites (R-2 = 0.898 adjustment, R-2 = 0.698 validation). Litterfall production was correctly simulated (R-2 = 0.562, R-2 = 0.4018 validation) and may be improved by using additional validation data in future work. In two French temperate deciduous forests (beech and oak), we adapted phenological sub-modules of the CASTANEA model to simulate canopy dynamics, and SLCD was validated using LAI measurements. The phenological patterns were simulated with good accuracy in the two cases studied. However, IA/max was not accurately simulated in the beech forest, and further improvement is required.Our probabilistic approach is expected to contribute to improving predictions of LAI dynamics. The model formalism is general and suitable to broadleaf forests for a large range of ecological conditions. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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The aim of this research is to verify the relationship between the maturity levels of environmental management and the adoption of green supply chain management (GSCM) practices by electro-electronic companies in Brazil. In this work a two-phase research was conducted, with one quantitative and the other qualitative. The quantitative phase aimed to test whether a relationship between the maturity levels of environmental management and GSCM exists, while the qualitative phase tried to detail the characteristics of this relationship. The quantitative phase was conducted through a survey with 100 Brazilian electro-electronic companies and the collected data were processed using Structural Equation Modeling. For the qualitative phase, a multiple case study was conducted with three companies located in Brazil. The results indicate that: (1) The main hypothesis was confirmed and considered statistically valid, indicating that, indeed, the maturity level of environmental management influences the adoption of GSCM practices; (2) a coevolution tends to occur between the environmental maturity and the GSCM practices; that is, the more developed is the company's environmental management, more complex GSCM practices are adopted; and (3) the GSCM internal practices tend to present a greater relative adoption than the external practices; these external practices of GSCM tend to be adopted when the company is inserted in a higher environmental stage and/or operates under a scenario of stronger normative environmental pressure. By the way, this is the first research mixing survey and case studies on GSCM in Brazil. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Objective - For patients with medication refractory medial temporal lobe epilepsy (MTLE), surgery offers the hope of a cure. However, up to 30% of patients with MTLE continue to experience disabling seizures after surgery. The reasons why some patients do not achieve seizure freedom are poorly understood. A promising theory suggests that epileptogenic networks are broadly distributed in surgically refractory MTLE, involving regions beyond the medial temporal lobe. In this retrospective study, we aimed to investigate the distribution of epileptogenic networks in MTLE using Bayesian distributed EEG source analysis from preoperative ictal onset recordings. This analysis has the advantage of generating maps of source probability, which can be subjected to voxel-based statistical analyses.Methods - We compared 10 patients who achieved post-surgical seizure freedom with 10 patients who continued experiencing seizures after surgery. Voxel-based Wilcoxon tests were employed with correction for multiple comparisons.Results - We observed that ictal EEG source intensities were significantly more likely to occur in lateral temporal and posterior medial temporal regions in patients with continued seizures post-surgery.Conclusions - Our findings support the theory of broader spatial distribution of epileptogenic networks at seizure onset in patients with surgically refractory MTLE.

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Pós-graduação em Desenvolvimento Humano e Tecnologias - IBRC

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)