96 resultados para probability of informed trading


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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Trypanosoma vivax outbreaks in beef cattle in the Pantanal region of Mato Grosso do Sul state, Brazil, causes relevant economical impact due to weight loss, abortion and mortality. Cattle moved from the Pantanal to adjacent areas of this ecosystem for breeding and fattening is a common feature. Therefore an epidemiological study on breeding cows in the transition area between Pantanal lowland and adjacent highlands of Mato Grosso do Sul was performed to determine the T. vivax infection dynamics and outbreak risk. Three experimental groups were formed: Group 1 consisted of cows parasitologically negative by the Woo test and in the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for T. vivax antibody detection (Tv-ELISA-Ab); Group 2 parasitologically negative and positive in the Tv-ELISA-Ab; and in Group 3 cows were parasitologically positive and with positive reactions in the Tv-ELISA-Ab. During 24 months, the cows' dislodgment between the above established groups was monitored by Woo test and Tv-ELISA-Ab exams. The tabanid population was also monitored and the highest number occurred during the rainy season. Although parasitemias were detected only in the first four samplings of the experimental period, the cows could be considered as trypanotolerant, because no clinical signs were observed. Despite the higher T. vivax incidence during the dry season, no disease symptoms were seen. Even though T. vivax epidemiological situation in the herd was characterized as endemic with seasonal variation, the probability of outbreaks was null within the conditions of the study.

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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We investigate the escape of an ensemble of noninteracting particles inside an infinite potential box that contains a time-dependent potential well. The dynamics of each particle is described by a two-dimensional nonlinear area-preserving mapping for the variables energy and time, leading to a mixed phase space. The chaotic sea in the phase space surrounds periodic islands and is limited by a set of invariant spanning curves. When a hole is introduced in the energy axis, the histogram of frequency for the escape of particles, which we observe to be scaling invariant, grows rapidly until it reaches a maximum and then decreases toward zero at sufficiently long times. A plot of the survival probability of a particle in the dynamics as function of time is observed to be exponential for short times, reaching a crossover time and turning to a slower-decay regime, due to sticky regions observed in the phase space.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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North's clustering method, which is based on a much used ecological model, the nearest neighbor distance, was applied to the objective reconstruction of the chain of household-to-household transmission of variola minor (the mild form of smallpox). The discrete within-household outbreaks were considered as points which were ordered in a time sequence using a 10-40 day interval between introduction of the disease into a source household and a receptor household. The closer points in the plane were assumed to have a larger probability of being links of a chain of household-to-household spread of the disease. The five defining distances (Manhattan or city-block distance between presumptive source and receptor dwellings) were 100, 200, 300, 400 and 500 m. The subchain sets obtained with the five defining distances were compared with the subchains empirically reconstructed during the field study of the epidemic through direct investigation of personal contacts of the introductory cases with either introductory or subsequent cases from previously affected households. The criteria of fit of theoretical to empirical clusters were: (a) the number of clustered dwellings and subchains, (b) number of dwellings in a subchain and (c) position of dwellings in a subchain. The defining distance closet to the empirical findings was 200 m, which fully agrees with the travelling habits of the study population. Less close but acceptable approximations were obtained with 100, 300, 400 and 500 m. The latter two distances gave identical results, as if a clustering ceiling had been reached. It seems that North's clustering model may be used for an objective reconstruction of the chain of contagious whose links are discrete within-household outbreaks. © 1984.

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Wind-excited vibrations in the frequency range of 10 to 50 Hz due to vortex shedding often cause fatigue failures in the cables of overhead transmission lines. Damping devices, such as the Stockbridge dampers, have been in use for a long time for supressing these vibrations. The dampers are conveniently modelled by means of their driving point impedance, measured in the lab over the frequency range under consideration. The cables can be modelled as strings with additional small bending stiffness. The main problem in modelling the vibrations does however lay in the aerodynamic forces, which usually are approximated by the forces acting on a rigid cylinder in planar flow. In the present paper, the wind forces are represented by stochastic processes with arbitrary crosscorrelation in space; the case of a Kármán vortex street on a rigid cylinder in planar flow is contained as a limit case in this approach. The authors believe that this new view of the problem may yield useful results, particularly also concerning the reliability of the lines and the probability of fatigue damages. © 1987.

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We outline a method for registration of images of cross sections using the concepts of The Generalized Hough Transform (GHT). The approach may be useful in situations where automation should be a concern. To overcome known problems of noise of traditional GHT we have implemented a slight modified version of the basic algorithm. The modification consists of eliminating points of no interest in the process before the application of the accumulation step of the algorithm. This procedure minimizes the amount of accumulation points while reducing the probability of appearing of spurious peaks. Also, we apply image warping techniques to interpolate images among cross sections. This is needed where the distance of samples between sections is too large. Then it is suggested that the step of registration with GHT can help the interpolation automation by simplifying the correspondence between points of images. Some results are shown.

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In the weak field approximation of higher order gravity theory a gravitational potential is described by a Newtonian plus a Yukawa-like term. This new term is used to explain some aspects of galactic dynamics, without considering dark matter. Its presence modifies the scattering probability of a massive intruder star and relaxation time of the stellar system.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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The relative contribution of migration of Rhizoctonia solani anastomosis group 3 (AG-3) on infested potato seed tubers originating from production areas in Canada, Maine, and Wisconsin (source population) to the genetic diversity and structure of populations of R. solani AG-3 in North Carolina (NC) soil (recipient population) was examined. The frequency of alleles detected by multilocus polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphisms, heterozygosity at individual loci, and gametic phase disequilibrium between all pairs of loci were determined for subpopulations of R. solani AG-3 from eight sources of potato seed tubers and from five soils in NC. Analysis of molecular variation revealed little variation between seed source and NC recipient soil populations or between subpopulations within each region. Analysis of population data with a Bayesian-based statistical method previously developed for detecting migration in human populations suggested that six multilocus genotypes from the NC soil population had a statistically significant probability of being migrants from the northern source population. The one-way (unidirectional) migration of genotypes of R. solani AG-3 into NC on infested potato seed tubers from Canada, Maine, and Wisconsin provides a plausible explanation for the lack of genetic subdivision (differentiation) between populations of the pathogen in NC soils or between the northern source and the NC recipient soil populations.

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Objective: The present study aimed at evaluating the occurrence and recurrence of middle ear effusion and possible associated factors in the first two years of life of 190 newborns and infants, participants in the interdisciplinary prevention, detection, and intervention program at the Clínica de Educação para Saúde of Universidade do Sagrado Coração, Methods: Newborns and infants were monthly submitted to anamneses, otoscopy, behavioral hearing assessment using sound instruments and pure tones (pediatric audiometry) and tympanometry. Results: The results revealed that 68.4% of infants presented one or more episodes of middle ear effusion during their two first years, with more recurrence among males. Peak occurrence was between four and 12 months of age and, the earlier the first episode, the higher the probability of recurrence. Greatest incidence was during May and August. It was found that, of the variables investigated, the period of exclusive breastfeeding actuated as a protector factor. With respect of risk factors, it was observed that passive smoking, gastro-esophageal reflux and respiratory allergy were related with the recurrences of effusion. Conclusion: Findings revealed the importance of periodic auditory follow-up for infants during their first two years of life, considered to be the critical period of auditory system maturation, during which sensory deprivation can be responsible for damage to the development of speech, language and other auditory abilities. Copyright © 2005 by Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria.

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Objective. - To assess the prevalence of stings by small spiny driftwood catfish (carataí) of the genus Centromochlus (Auchenipteridae) accidentally caught in buckets during bucket bathing by riverside people along the Brazilian Amazon and to determine the probability of catching specimens of these fish during random throws of a bucket into the river. Methods. - We interviewed 27 adult residents living at the confluence of the Negro and Solimões rivers in Brazil regarding whether or not they had ever been stung by driftwood catfish while bucket bathing. To assess the likelihood of catching catfish in bathing buckets, we randomly threw a typical plastic bucket used for bathing in 4 series of 10 throws into the river at dusk or night around a floating house. Results. - Seventeen of the 27 subjects (63%) reported being injured by driftwood catfish during bucket bathing. Three individuals (17.6%) had been injured 2 to 3 times, totaling 23 puncture accidents. All stings occurred at dusk or early night. In the 4 series of 10 bucket throws, we caught 3 driftwood catfish (in 1 series we did not catch any fish). Thus, the chance of catching a driftwood catfish in a single bucket throw at dusk was slightly less than 10%. Conclusions. - The prevalence of stings by driftwood catfish to people bucket bathing in this section of the Brazilian Amazon is high, partly because of the relatively high chances of catching these small catfish during random throws of a bathing bucket into the river.

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Purpose: This study investigates the influence of age at onset of OCS on psychiatric comorbidities, and tries to establish a cut-off point for age at onset. Methods: Three hundred and thirty OCD patients were consecutively recruited and interviewed using the following structured interviews: Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale; Yale Global Tic Severity Scale and the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV. Data were analyzed with regression and cluster analysis. Results: Lower age at onset was associated with a higher probability of having comorbidity with tic, anxiety, somatoform, eating and impulse-control disorders. Longer illness duration was associated with lower chance of having tics. Female gender was associated with anxiety, eating and impulse-control disorders. Tic disorders were associated with anxiety disorders and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder. No cut-off age at onset was found to clearly divide the sample in homogeneous subgroups. However, cluster analyses revealed that differences started to emerge at the age of 10 and were more pronounced at the age of 17, suggesting that these were the best cut-off points on this sample. Conclusions: Age at onset is associated with specific comorbidity patterns in OCD patients. More prominent differences are obtained when analyzing age at onset as an absolute value. © 2008 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

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This work has as objective to demonstrate technical and economic viability of hydrogen production utilizing glycerol. The volume of this substance, which was initially produced by synthetic ways (from oil-derived products), has increased dramatically due mainly to biodiesel production through transesterification process which has glycerol as main residue. The surplus amount of glycerol has been generally utilized to feed poultry or as fuel in boilers, beyond other applications such as production of soaps, chemical products for food industry, explosives, and others. The difficulty to allocate this additional amount of glycerol has become it in an enormous environment problem, in contrary to the objective of biodiesel chain, which is to diminish environmental impact substituting oil and its derivatives, which release more emissions than biofuels, do not contribute to CO2-cycle and are not renewable sources. Beyond to utilize glycerol in combustion processes, this material could be utilized for hydrogen production. However, a small quantity of works (theoretical and experimental) and reports concerning this theme could be encountered. Firstly, the produced glycerol must be purified since non-reacted amounts of materials, inclusively catalysts, contribute to deactivate catalysts utilized in hydrogen production processes. The volume of non-reacted reactants and non-utilized catalysts during transesterification process could be reutilized. Various technologies of thermochemical generation of hydrogen that utilizes glycerol (and other fuels) were evaluated and the greatest performances and their conditions are encountered as soon as the most efficient technology of hydrogen production. Firstly, a physicochemical analysis must be performed. This step has as objective to evaluate the necessary amount of reactants to produce a determined volume of hydrogen and determine thermodynamic conditions (such as temperature and pressure) where the major performances of hydrogen production could be encountered. The calculations are based on the process where advance degrees are found and hence, fractions of products (especially hydrogen, however, CO2, CO, CH4 and solid carbon could be also encountered) are calculated. To produce 1 Nm3/h of gaseous hydrogen (necessary for a PEMFC - Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell - containing an electric efficiency of about 40%, to generate 1 kWh), 0,558 kg/h of glycerol is necessary in global steam reforming, 0,978 kg/h of glycerol in partial oxidation and cracking processes, and 0,782 kg/h of glycerol in autothermal reforming process. The dry reforming process could not be performed to produce hydrogen utilizing glycerol, in contrary to the utilization of methane, ethanol, and other hydrocarbons. In this study, steam reforming process was preferred due mainly to higher efficiencies of production and the need of minor amount of glycerol as cited above. In the global steam reforming of glycerine, for one mole of glycerol, three moles of water are necessary to produce three moles of CO2 and seven moles of H2. The response reactions process was utilized to predict steam reforming process more accurately. In this mean, the production of solid carbon, CO, and CH4, beyond CO2 and hydrogen was predicted. However, traces of acetaldehyde (C2H2), ethylene (C2H4), ethylene glycol, acetone, and others were encountered in some experimental studies. The rates of determined products obviously depend on the adopted catalysts (and its physical and chemical properties) and thermodynamic conditions of hydrogen production. Eight reactions of steam reforming and cracking were predicted considering only the determined products. In the case of steam reforming at 600°C, the advance degree of this reactor could attain its maximum value, i.e., overall volume of reactants could be obtained whether this reaction is maintained at 1 atm. As soon as temperature of this reaction increases the advance degree also increase, in contrary to the pressure, where advance degree decrease as soon as pressure increase. The fact of temperature of reforming is relatively small, lower costs of installation could be attained, especially cheaper thermocouples and smaller amount of thermo insulators and materials for its assembling. Utilizing the response reactions process in steam reforming, the predicted volumes of products, for the production of 1 Nm3/h of H2 and thermodynamic conditions as cited previously, were 0,264 kg/h of CO (13% of molar fraction of reaction products), 0,038 kg/h of CH4 (3% of molar fraction), 0,028 kg/h of C (3% of molar fraction), and 0,623 kg/h of CO2 (20% of molar fraction). Through process of water-gas shift reactions (WGSR) an additional amount of hydrogen could be produced utilizing mainly the volumes of produced CO and CH4. The overall results (steam reforming plus WGSR) could be similar to global steam reforming. An attention must to be taking into account due to the possibility to produce an additional amount of CH4 (through methanation process) and solid carbon (through Boudouard process). The production of solid carbon must to be avoided because this reactant diminishes (filling the pores) and even deactivate active area of catalysts. To avoid solid carbon production, an additional amount of water is suggested. This method could be also utilized to diminish the volume of CO (through WGSR process) since this product is prejudicial for the activity of low temperature fuel cells (such as PEMFC). In some works, more three or even six moles of water are suggested. A net energy balance of studied hydrogen production processes (at 1 atm only) was developed. In this balance, low heat value of reactant and products and utilized energy for the process (heat supply) were cited. In the case of steam reforming utilizing response reactions, global steam reforming, and cracking processes, the maximum net energy was detected at 700°C. Partial oxidation and autothermal reforming obtained negative net energy in all cited temperatures despite to be exothermic reactions. For global steam reforming, the major value was 114 kJ/h. In the case of steam reforming, the highest value of net energy was detected in this temperature (-170 kJ/h). The major values were detected in the cracking process (up to 2586 kJ/h). The exergetic analysis has as objective, associated with physicochemical analysis, to determine conditions where reactions could be performed at higher efficiencies with lower losses. This study was performed through calculations of exergetic and rational efficiencies, and irreversibilities. In this analysis, as in the previously performed physicochemical analysis, conditions such as temperature of 600°C and pressure of 1 atm for global steam reforming process were suggested due to lower irreversibility and higher efficiencies. Subsequently, higher irreversibilities and lower efficiencies were detected in autothermal reforming, partial oxidation and cracking process. Comparing global reaction of steam reforming with more-accurate steam reforming, it was verified that efficiencies were diminished and irreversibilities were increased. These results could be altered with introduction of WGSR process. An economic analysis could be performed to evaluate the cost of generated hydrogen and determine means to diminish the costs. This analysis suggests an annual period of operation between 5000-7000 hours, interest rates of up to 20% per annum (considering Brazilian conditions), and pay-back of up to 20 years. Another considerations must to be take into account such as tariffs of utilized glycerol and electricity (to be utilized as heat source and (or) for own process as pumps, lamps, valves, and other devices), installation (estimated as US$ 15.000 for a plant of 1 Nm3/h) and maintenance cost. The adoption of emission trading schemes such as carbon credits could be performed since this is a process with potential of mitigates environment impact. Not considering credit carbons, the minor cost of calculated H2 was 0,16288 US$/kWh if glycerol is also utilized as heat sources and 0,17677 US$/kWh if electricity is utilized as heat sources. The range of considered tariff of glycerol was 0-0,1 US$/kWh (taking as basis LHV of H2) and the tariff of electricity is US$ 0,0867 US$/kWh, with demand cost of 12,49 US$/kW. The costs of electricity were obtained by Companhia Bandeirante, localized in São Paulo State. The differences among costs of hydrogen production utilizing glycerol and electricity as heat source was in a range between 0,3-5,8%. This technology in this moment is not mature. However, it allows the employment generation with the additional utilization of glycerol, especially with plants associated with biodiesel plants. The produced hydrogen and electricity could be utilized in own process, increasing its final performance.