A Cellular Automaton Approach to Spatial Electric Load Forecasting

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Spatial electric load forecasting using an evolutionary heuristic

A method for spatial electric load forecasting using elements from evolutionary algorithms is presented. The method uses concepts from knowledge extraction algorithms and linguistic rules' representation to characterize the preferences for land use into a spatial database. The future land use preferences in undeveloped zones in the electrical utility service area are determined using an evolutionary heuristic, which considers a stochastic behavior by crossing over similar rules. The method considers development of new zones and also redevelopment of existing ones. The results are presented in future preference maps. The tests in a real system from a midsized city show a high rate of success when results are compared with information gathered from the utility planning department. The most important features of this method are the need for few data and the simplicity of the algorithm, allowing for future scalability.

Análise do uso da terra na microbacia do Arroio do Meio - Santa Maria - RS, por Sistema de Informações Geográficas e imagem de satélite

O objetivo desse trabalho foi verificar a viabilidade do uso de um Sistema de Informações Geográficas (SIG) e a imagem de satélite para a análise do uso atual da terra e localização de áreas onde possam estar ocorrendo conflitos entre capacidade e uso do solo, na microbacia hidrográfica do Arroio do Meio. Foram utilizadas técnicas de geoprocessamento, como álgebra entre mapas, consulta ao banco de dados e reclassificação de imagens. Uma microbacia foi escolhida como objeto deste estudo, por ser considerada por muitos autores como sendo uma das melhores unidades para o planejamento e desenvolvimento sócioeconômico dos habitantes do meio rural. Na microbacia estudada, foram encontrados 555ha cobertos com florestas, compreendendo 24% da área total. As lavouras com área de 1.314ha ocupam a maior parte da microbacia (56%). Os campos de pastagens cobrem 184ha, ou seja, 8% da área total. As áreas alagadas representam 11% da área da microbacia, tendo respectivamente 265ha. Foram detectados ainda, 31ha sombreados (1%) onde não se determinou com exatidão o uso da terra. Nas áreas com declividade superior a 47%, foram detectados 32ha sem cobertura de florestas, perfazendo 1,4% da área da microbacia. em declives superiores a 30%, existem 71ha (3%) sendo usados para a agricultura. A área ocupada com Chernossolos e Neossolos Litólicos, unidade de mapeamento Ciríaco-Charrua em declividade maior que 30% sem cobertura florestal é de 14ha (0,6%). de acordo com a declividade e o solo, as áreas de conflito alcançam 5% da área total, o que demonstra que, na maior parte da microbacia, a terra está sendo usada de acordo com sua capacidade.

Rural property size drives patterns of upland and riparian forest retention in a tropical deforestation frontier

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Multi-Agent Framework for Spatial Load Forecasting

A multi-agent framework for spatial electric load forecasting, especially suited to simulate the different dynamics involved on distribution systems, is presented. The service zone is divided into several sub-zones, each subzone is considered as an independent agent identified with a corresponding load level, and their relationships with the neighbor zones are represented as development probabilities. With this setting, different kind of agents can be developed to simulate the growth pattern of the loads in distribution systems. This paper presents two different kinds of agents to simulate different situations, presenting some promissory results.

Análise da transformação do uso da terra, vegetação e impactos ambientais por meio de sensoriamento remoto e geoprocessamento

The mapping of the land use, vegetation and environmental impacts using remote sensing and geoprocessing allows detection, spatial representation and quantifying all alterations due to the human action in the nature, contributing to the monitoring and planning of those activities that cause damages to the environment. The aim of this research is analyze the transformation ocurred with the land use and vegetation in order to detect environmental impacts during the period from 1962 to 1995, considering a test area in the district of Assistência and surroundings, in the Rio Claro (SP) region. In order to archieve such aim the authors used boolean operations available in the Geographical Information System (GIS) - Idrisi. The maps were obtained through the ordinary (conventional) interpretation of aerial photos, later digitized in the software CAD Overlay and georeferenced in AutoCAD Map. It's observed that operations such as crossing digitized maps of one specific area in two differents dates, using GIS, produce overall results that might point out expansion or retraction's trends of the mapped classes, as well as quantify the intensity of the phenomena.

Mapeamento do uso da terra, vegetação e impactos ambientais por meio de sensoriamento remoto e geoprocessamento

The mapping of the land use, vegetation and environmental impacts using remote sensing ana geoprocessmg allow detection, spatial representation and quantification of the alterations caused by the human action on the nature, contributing to the monitoring and planning of those activities that may cause damages to the environment. This study apply methodologies based on digital processing of orbital images for the mapping of the land use, vegetation and anthropic activities that cause impacts in the environment. It was considered a test area in the district of Assistência and surroundings, in Rio Claro (SP) region. The methodology proposed was checked through the crossing of maps in the software GIS - Idrisi. These maps either obtained with conventional interpretation of aerial photos of 1995, digitized in the software CAD Overlay and geo-referenced in the AutoCAD Map, or with the application of digital classification systems on SPOT-XS and PAN orbital images of 1995, followed by field observations. The crossing of conventional and digital maps of a same area with the CIS allows to verify the overall results obtained through the computational handling of orbital images. With the use of digital processing techniques, specially multiespectral classification, it is possible to detect automatically and visually the impacts related to the mineral extraction, as well as to survey the land use, vegetation and environmental impacts.

Carta de Aptidão para a implantação de rodovias e avaliação de alternativas de traçado com uso de geotecnologias

This study discuss the use of the geotechnologies to aid the planners on the terrain aptness definition for highways implantation and on the different trace evaluation to the extention of the Governador Carvalho Pinto highway, between Taubaté-SP and Aparecida do Norte-SP. Fratures on the area were mapping using Landsat ETM+, band Pan. In order to elaborate the phisical aptness chart for highway implantation was used the Analitical Hierarchy Process (AHP) operation, in on geographical information system (GIS). Using GIS were realized a ponderate middle with the soils, rocks, relief, slope, fractures and land use/cover maps. Using this physical aptness chart and joinning it with urban and restrict areas (that was inserted by the Boolean operation), were obtained a viability chart for highway implantation. Based on it were proposed three aleatory traces for the Carvalho Pinto highway. This traces were evaluated with the cross tabulation operation. The integration of the restrict areas, land use and phisical aptness in digital media can offer for the planners the cartography of the viability for the highway implantation. The evaliation of these three traces, based on the viability chart, can subsidyse the decision by the planners.

Geoprocessamento aplicado na distribuição espacial da capacidade de uso de uma microbacia

The present study aimed to show the spatial distribution of the Rochas watershed (Avaré-SP, Brazil) soil use capacity using the Idrisi geographical information system in order to contribute to a better territorial organization and the planning of the appropriate soil occupation. The obtained results using this methodology showed that most of the Rocha watershed areas are from the following groups: dystrophic yellow-red latosol (36.64%), eutroferric and distroferric red latosol (30.30%) with sandy texture. There was a predominance of areas with slope classes of 0-12%, plain to wavy relief (61.37% of the watershed area) showing that these areas are appropriate for annual culture plantations with wide use of machinery. Most of these areas were classified as class IV (73.79%) as to use capacity. In the studied area the following subclasses of land use capacity were found: IIe, s; IIIe; IVe; IVs; IVe,s; VIe and VIIe. Capacity subclasses IVe; IVe,s; IVs and Vie were the most significant because they are areas that can be used for agriculture but subject to severe soil impoverishment if there are no special care mainly for annual cultures. The Idrisi geographical information system was efficient to determine soil use capacity of the Rocha's watershed showing that the use of geoprocessing tools makes data analysis easier and faster, allowing digital data storage for future analysis uses mainly for territorial planning and environmental studies.

Susceptibilidade erosiva do baixo curso do rio Acaraú-CE

The inadequate land use in the low course of the river Acaraú is speeding up processes of erosion in some degrees. This process is accented in the areas where caatinga was removed for implantation of pastures and agriculture. Concomitantly, the plain of flooding of the river Acaraú an accumulation of sand with the carry of these sediments, resulting in the widening of the fluvial plain and reduction of the shape water, with increase of the evapotranspiration and consequence salinization, proceeding from the local substratum. This paper aimed at the crossing of diverse space information (geomorfology, soil, declivity, geology and land use) in environment SIG, for determination of the susceptible areas to the erosion and an accumulation of sand in the low course of the Acaraú river, north of the State of the Ceará, Brazil. The results allow to evaluate the application of this tool in the planning and management of the environment, from the crossing of the type of use with the used environment and the consequent impact to the ecosystem.

Spatial electric load forecasting using a local movement approach

An agent based model for spatial electric load forecasting using a local movement approach for the spatiotemporal allocation of the new loads in the service zone is presented. The density of electrical load for each of the major consumer classes in each sub-zone is used as the current state of the agents. The spatial growth is simulated with a walking agent who starts his path in one of the activity centers of the city and goes to the limits of the city following a radial path depending on the different load levels. A series of update rules are established to simulate the S growth behavior and the complementarity between classes. The results are presented in future load density maps. The tests in a real system from a mid-size city show a high rate of success when compared with other techniques. The most important features of this methodology are the need for few data and the simplicity of the algorithm, allowing for future scalability. © 2009 IEEE.

Sistema de informações geográficas aplicado à espacialização da capacidade de uso da terra

This research aimed to study land use capability classes in Pratânia, São Paulo State, Brazil, by using the Geographic Information System (GIS), in order to find out the appropriate planning system for soil use. The watershed covers an area of 21,773.61 ha and is located among the coordinates 22°44'48S and 22°52'17S and 48°38'21W and 48°48'07W. The land use capability map was made from the slope and soil maps, based on the features of each kind of soil and the land use capability table for class assessment. It was possible to conclude that IIIs was the most significant subclass. Slope classes from 0% to 20% were present in more than 97% of Pratânia, being the plane areas the most representative ones (55%). GIS showed to be an excellent tool for determining land use capability, because the geoprocessing use facilitates and activates the digital data crossing, allowing its storage for future environmental planning.

ENCORE: Enhanced code Galileo receiver for land management applications in Brazil

Taking benefit of the new Galileo ranging signals, the ENCORE (Enhanced Code Galileo Receiver) project aims to develop a low-cost Land Management Application to cover needs of the Brazilian market in terms of geo-referencing and rural/urban cadastre, using a low-cost Enhanced Galileo Code Receiver as baseline. Land management applications require precision and accuracy levels from a few to several decimetres that are under-met with current pseudorange-based receiver and over-met with phase observations. This situation leads either to a waste of resources, or to lack of accuracy. In this project, it is proposed to fill this gap using the new possibilities of the Galileo ranging signals, in particular E5 AltBOC and E1 CBOC. This approach reduces the cost of the end-user solution, helping the rapid penetration of Galileo technology outside Europe. ©2010 IEEE.

Spatial load forecasting using a demand propagation approach

A method for spatial electric load forecasting using multi-agent systems, especially suited to simulate the local effect of special loads in distribution systems is presented. The method based on multi-agent systems uses two kinds of agents: reactive and proactive. The reactive agents represent each sub-zone in the service zone, characterizing each one with their corresponding load level, represented in a real number, and their relationships with other sub-zones represented in development probabilities. The proactive agent carry the new load expected to be allocated because of the new special load, this agent distribute the new load in a propagation pattern. The results are presented with maps of future expected load levels in the service zone. The method is tested with data from a mid-size city real distribution system, simulating the effect of a load with attraction and repulsion attributes. The method presents good results and performance. © 2011 IEEE.

Considering Urban Dynamics in spatial electric load forecasting

When dealing with spatio-temporal simulations of load growth inside a service zone, one of the most important problems faced by a Distribution Utility is how to represent the different relationships among different areas. A new load in a certain part of the city could modify the load growth in other parts of the city, even outside of its radius of influence. These interactions are called Urban Dynamics. This work aims to discuss how to implement Urban Dynamics considerations into the spatial electric load forecasting simulations using multi-agent simulations. To explain the approach, three examples are introduced, including the effect of an attraction load, the effect of a repulsive load, and the effect of several attraction/repulsive loads at the same time when considering the natural load growth. © 2012 IEEE.