Bayesian binary regression model: an application to in-hospital death after AMI prediction

Um modelo bayesiano de regressão binária é desenvolvido para predizer óbito hospitalar em pacientes acometidos por infarto agudo do miocárdio. Métodos de Monte Carlo via Cadeias de Markov (MCMC) são usados para fazer inferência e validação. Uma estratégia para construção de modelos, baseada no uso do fator de Bayes, é proposta e aspectos de validação são extensivamente discutidos neste artigo, incluindo a distribuição a posteriori para o índice de concordância e análise de resíduos. A determinação de fatores de risco, baseados em variáveis disponíveis na chegada do paciente ao hospital, é muito importante para a tomada de decisão sobre o curso do tratamento. O modelo identificado se revela fortemente confiável e acurado, com uma taxa de classificação correta de 88% e um índice de concordância de 83%.

Occurrence and significance of ovarian and follicular regression in cachara Pseudoplatystoma fasciatum (Linnaeus, 1766): a histology approach

Estudaram-se os processos de regressão ovariana e atresia folicular em cachara, Pseudoplatystoma fasciatum, mantida em cativeiro, na reprodução não induzida por hormônios. As características macro e microscópicas (diâmetro dos ovócitos e histologia) dos ovários foram descritas a cada 20 dias, em quatro estádios: na regressão inicial (Rg I - os primeiros 20 dias), na regressão intermediária (Rg II - do 21º ao 40º dia), na regressão final (Rg III - do 41º ao 80º dia) e na fase de recuperação ou de repouso II (R II - do 81º ao 150º dia). O experimento foi realizado do final de janeiro (verão-dias longos) a maio (outono-dias curtos). No início do experimento, as amostras apresentaram ovócitos com diâmetros que variaram de 437,5 a 1.187,5mm, sugerindo encontrarem-se nas fases perinucleolar, de maturação final e atrésicos. Aos 150 dias, os diâmetros atingiram os menores valores e pôde-se visualizar a zona radiata rompida e o vitelo reabsorvido. Concomitantemente, houve diminuição abrupta dos valores médios do índice gonadossomático, da temperatura da água, das horas de luz e de chuva. A involução gradual do longo processo foi dinâmica e complexa, afetando o êxito da desova (taxas de fertilização, de eclosão e de sobrevivência de larvas) e, conseqüentemente, o sistema produtivo.

Methods to verify parameter equality in nonlinear regression models

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Estimation of (co)variance components and genetic parameters for weights of red-winged tinamou using random regression models

Com este trabalho objetivou-se determinar parâmetros genéticos para peso corporal de perdizes em cativeiro. Foram utilizados modelos de regressão aleatória na análise dos dados considerando os efeitos genéticos aditivos diretos (AD) e de ambiente permanente de animal (AP) como aleatórios. As variâncias residuais foram modeladas utilizando-se funções de variância de ordem 5. A curva média da população foi ajustada por polinômios ortogonais de Legendre de ordem 6. Os efeitos genéticos aditivos diretos e de ambiente permanente de animal foram modelados utilizando-se polinômios de Legendre de segunda a nona ordem. Os melhores resultados foram obtidos pelos modelos de ordem 6 de ajuste para os efeitos genéticos aditivos diretos e de ordem 3 para os de ambiente permanente pelo Critério de Informação de Akaike e ordem 3 para ambos os efeitos pelos Critério de Informação Bayesiano de Schwartz e Teste de Razão de Verossimilhança. As herdabilidades estimadas variaram de 0,02 a 0,57. O primeiro autovalor respondeu por 94 e 90% da variação decorrente de efeitos aditivos diretos e de ambiente permanente, respectivamente. A seleção de perdizes para peso corporal é mais efetiva a partir de 112 dias de idade.

THRESHOLD EFFECTS ON HEAVY QUARK PRODUCTION IN GAMMA-GAMMA-INTERACTIONS

The exchange of gluons between heavy quarks produced in e+e- interactions results in an enhancement of their production near threshold. We study QCD threshold effects in gammagamma collisions. The results are relevant to heavy quark production by beamstrahlung and laser backscattering in future linear collider experiments. Detailed predictions for top-, bottom-, and charm-quark production are presented.

Blood glucose responses in humans mirror lactate responses for individual anaerobic threshold and for lactate minimum in track tests

The equilibrium point between blood lactate production and removal (La-min(-)) and the individual anaerobic threshold (IAT) protocols have been used to evaluate exercise. During progressive exercise, blood lactate [La-](b), catecholamine and cortisol concentrations, show exponential increases at upper anaerobic threshold intensities. Since these hormones enhance blood glucose concentrations [Glc](b), this study investigated the [Glc] and [La-](b) responses during incremental tests and the possibility of considering the individual glucose threshold (IGT) and glucose minimum;(Glc(min)) in addition to IAT and La-min(-) in evaluating exercise. A group of 15 male endurance runners ran in four tests on the track 3000 m run (v(3km)); IAT and IGT- 8 x 800 m runs at velocities between 84% and 102% of v(3km); La-min(-) and Glc(min) - after lactic acidosis induced by a 500-m sprint, the subjects ran 8 x 800 m at intensities between 87% and 97% of v(3km); endurance test (ET)- 30 min at the velocity of IAT. Capillary blood (25 mu l) was collected for [La-](b) and [Glc](b) measurements. The TAT and IGT were determined by [La-](b) and [Glc](b) kinetics during the second test. The La-min(-) and Glc(min) were determined considering the lowest [La-] and [Glc](b) during the third test. No differences were observed (P < 0.05) and high correlations were obtained between the velocities at IAT [283 (SD 19) and IGT 281 (SD 21)m. min(-1); r = 0.096; P < 0.001] and between La,, [285 (SD 21)] and Glc(min) [287 (SD 20) m. min(-1) = 0.77; P < 0.05]. During ET, the [La-](b) reached 5.0 (SD 1.1) and 5.3 (SD 1.0) mmol 1(-1) at 20 and 30 min, respectively (P > 0.05). We concluded that for these subjects it was possible to evaluate the aerobic capacity by IGT and Glc(min), as well as by IAT and La-min(-).

Study of stayability in Nellore cows using a threshold model

The objectives of the current study were to assess the feasibility of using stayability traits to improve fertility of Nellore cows and to examine the genetic relationship among the stayabilities at different ages. Stayability was defined as whether a cow calved every year up to the age of 5 (Stay5), 6 (Stay6), or 7 (Stay7) yr of age or more, given that she was provided the opportunity to breed. Data were analyzed based on a maximum a posteriori probit threshold model to predict breeding values on the liability scale, whereas the Gibbs sampler was used to estimate variance components. The EBV were obtained using all animals included in the pedigree or bulls with at least 10 daughters with stayability observations, and average genetic trends were obtained in the liability and transformed to the probability scale. Additional analyses were performed to study the genetic relationship among stayability traits, which were compared by contrasting results in terms of EBV and the average genetic superiority as a function of the selected proportion of sires. Heritability estimates and SD were 0.25 +/- 0.02, 0.22 +/- 0.03, and 0.28 +/- 0.03 for Stay5, Stay6, and Stay7, respectively. Average genetic trends, by year, were 0.51 +/- 0.34, and 0.38% for Stay5, Stay6, and Stay7, respectively. Estimates of EBV SD, in the probability scale, for all animals included in the pedigree and for bulls with at least 10 daughters with stayability observations were 7.98 and 12.95, 6.93 and 11.38, and 8.24 and 14.30% for Stay5, Stay6, and Stay7, respectively. A reduction in the average genetic superiorities in Stay7 would be expected if the selection were based on Stay5 or Stay6. Nonetheless, the reduction in EPD, depending on selection intensity, is on average 0.74 and 1.55%, respectively. Regressions of the sires' EBV for Stay5 and Stay6 on the sires' EBV for Stay7 confirmed these results. The heritability and genetic trend estimates for all stayability traits indicate that it is possible to improve fertility with selection based on a threshold analysis of stayability. The SD of EBV for stayability traits show that there is adequate genetic variability among animals to justify inclusion of stayability as a selection criterion. The potential linear relationship among stayability traits indicates that selection for improved female traits would be more effective by having predictions on the Stay5 trait.

Buffalos milk yield analysis using random regression models

Data comprising 1,719 milk yield records from 357 females (predominantly Murrah breed), daughters of 110 sires, with births from 1974 to 2004, obtained from the Programa de Melhoramento Genetic de Bubalinos (PROMEBUL) and from records of EMBRAPA Amazonia Oriental - EAO herd, located in Belem, Para, Brazil, were used to compare random regression models for estimating variance components and predicting breeding values of the sires. The data were analyzed by different models using the Legendre's polynomial functions from second to fourth orders. The random regression models included the effects of herd-year, month of parity date of the control; regression coefficients for age of females (in order to describe the fixed part of the lactation curve) and random regression coefficients related to the direct genetic and permanent environment effects. The comparisons among the models were based on the Akaike Infromation Criterion. The random effects regression model using third order Legendre's polynomials with four classes of the environmental effect were the one that best described the additive genetic variation in milk yield. The heritability estimates varied from 0.08 to 0.40. The genetic correlation between milk yields in younger ages was close to the unit, but in older ages it was low.

Development of a pressure nociceptive threshold testing device for evaluation of analgesics in cats

A pressure analgesiometric device was developed for unrestrained cats. Eleven cats were studied. Stimulation was via three rounded pins within a bracelet on the forearm. The pins were advanced by manual bladder inflation. Bladder pressure was measured using a strain gauge pressure transducer. The threshold was recorded at the behavioural end point. Thresholds were measured at 5 and 15 min intervals for 2-4 h, after removal/replacement of the cuff, for 120 min after SC butorphanol (0.4 mg/kg), and with mild skin inflammation at the testing site. Data were analysed using ANOVA. Pressure thresholds in untreated cats were around 150 mmHg. The minimum interval for testing was established as 15 min. Data were reproducible over 4 h and beyond 24 h. Thresholds in 5 cats increased (P < 0.05) above baseline for 45 min after butorphanol with a maximum increase of 270 +/- 182 mmHg at 10 min. Thresholds decreased with inflammation. The method appears suitable for feline analgesia investigations. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of exercise mode on the blood lactate removal during recovery of high-intensity exercise

The aim of this study was to determine the effect of exercise mode on the blood lactate removal during recovery of high-intensity exercise. Nine male individuals performed the following tests in order to determine the blood lactate removal: Running - 2x200 m, the subjects ran at their maximum capacity, and rested 2 min between each bout. Swimming - 2x50 m, the subjects swam at their maximum capacity, and rested 2 min between each bout. Each test was realized on different days with three recovery modes: passive (sitting down), swimming, or running. Recovery exercise intensity was corresponding to the aerobic threshold. All recovery activities lasted 30 min. The two forms of active recovery were initiated 2 min after the end of high-intensity exercise and lasted 15 min, and were followed by 13 min of seated rest. After 1,7, 12,17, and 30 min of the end of high-intensity exercise, blood samples (25 mu l) were collected in order to determine the blood lactate concentration. By linear regression, between the logarithm of lactate concentration and its respective time of recovery, the half-time of blood lactate removal (t1/2) was determined. Time of high-intensity exercise and the lactate concentration obtained in the 1(st) min of recovery were not different between running and swimming. Passive recovery (PR) following running (R-PR=25.5+/-4.3 min) showed a t1/2 significantly higher than PR after swimming (S-PR=18.6+/-4.3 min). The t1/2 of the sequences running-running (R-R=13.0 min), running-swimming (R-S=12.9+/-3.8 min), swimming-swimming (S-S=13.2+/-2.8 min), and swimming-running (S-R=12.9+/-3.8 min) were significantly lower than the t1/2 of the R-PR and S-PR. There was no difference between the t1/2 of the sequences R-R R-S, and S-S. on the other hand the sequence S-R showed a t1/2 significantly lower than the sequences S-S and R-R. It was concluded that the two forms of active recovery determine an increase in the blood lactate removal, regardless of the mode of high-intensity exercise performed previously. Active recovery performed by the muscle groups that were not previously fatigued, can improve the blood lactate removal.

A partial least squares and principal component regression study of quinone compounds with trypanocidal activity

A quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) study of 19 quinone compounds with trypanocidal activity was performed by Partial Least Squares (PLS) and Principal Component Regression (PCR) methods with the use of leave-one-out crossvalidation procedure to build the regression models. The trypanocidal activity of the compounds is related to their first cathodic potential (Ep(c1)). The regression PLS and PCR models built in this study were also used to predict the Ep(c1) of six new quinone compounds. The PLS model was built with three principal components that described 96.50% of the total variance and present Q(2) = 0.83 and R-2 = 0.90. The results obtained with the PCR model were similar to those obtained with the PLS model. The PCR model was also built with three principal components that described 96.67% of the total variance with Q(2) = 0.83 and R-2 = 0.90. The most important descriptors for our PLS and PCR models were HOMO-1 (energy of the molecular orbital below HOMO), Q4 (atomic charge at position 4), MAXDN (maximal electrotopological negative difference), and HYF (hydrophilicity index).

A partial least squares regression study with antioxidant flavonoid compounds

The quantitative structure-activity relationship of a set of 19 flavonoid compounds presenting antioxidant activity was studied by means of PLS (Partial Least Squares) regression. The optimization of the structures and calculation of electronic properties were done by using the semiempirical method AMI. A reliable model (r(2) = 0.806 and q(2) = 0.730) was obtained and from this model it was possible to consider some aspects of the structure of the flavonoid compounds studied that are related with their free radical scavenging ability. The quality of the PLS model obtained in this work indicates that it can be used in order to design new flavonoid compounds that present ability to scavenge free radicals.