56 resultados para Forecast accuracy
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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The purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the depth of carious lesions on bitewing radiographs. Methods Recently extracted primary molars had their proximal surfaces evaluated visually (EC) and classified as healthy surface (0), signs that suggest the presence of carious lesions in enamel (1), signs of a superficial lesion in dentin (2) and carious lesions in deep dentin (3). Results The results were obtained by consensus between the investigators. The gold standard was determined by histological analysis. The values of sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and area under the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve were evaluated. There was equilibrium between sensitivity (76.92% EC and 88.46% ER) and specificity (95.83% EC and 95.83% ER). Accuracy was 86.01% (EC) and 88.46% (ER). The Spearman correlation test was used to prove the correlation between clinical and radiographic examinations (0.886), for clinical and histological (0.736) and for radiographic and histological analysis (0.843).
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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Different cell cycle synchronization methods were used to increase the mitotic index and accuracy of sex determination in murine and bovine embryos. For sexing purposes, colchicine treatment for 2, 4, 6 and 8 h and the FdU-thymidine-colchicine combination were tested in murine embryos. The best results were obtained with colchicine treatment for 8 h (96.88% accuracy) and with FdU-thymidine-colchicine (97.22% accuracy). Mitotic indexes differed significantly between the 2 treatments (21.71% for colchicine and 32.95% for FdU-thymidine-colchicine). For sex identification of murine and bovine demi-embryos, both treatments were demonstrated to be equally effective (nearly 90%). The mitotic index for the FdU-treated murine demi-embryos (19.04%) was higher than the one obtained for the 8-h colchicine treatment (15.62%).
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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The modeling technique is simple, useful and practical to calculate optimum nutrient density to maximize profit margins, using nonlinear programming by predictive broiler performance. To demonstrate the influence of the broiler price could interact with nutrient density, the experiment aimed to define the quadratic equations for consumption and weight gain, based on modeling, to be applied to nonlinear programming, according to sex (male and female) in the starter (1 to 21 days), grower (22 to 42 days) and finisher phases (43 to 56 days). The experimental design was a randomized, totaling 6 treatments [energy levels of 2800, 2900, 3000, 3100, 3200 and 3300kcal AME/kg with constant nutrient : AME (Apparent Metabolizable Energy)] with 4 replicates and 10 birds per plot, using the program free download PPFR Excel workbook for feed formulation (http://www.foa.unesp.br/downloads/file_detalhes.asp?CatCod=4&SubCatCod=138&FileCod=1677). Data from this trial confirmed that there was a significant relationship between feed intake and total energy consumption of the diet, in which feed intake was increased or decreased simply to keep the amount of energy, with a constant rate of nutrient : AME. Therefore, the data support that if the essential dietary nutrients are kept in proportion to the energy density of the diet, according to the appropriate requirements (male / female) of broilers, the weight and feed conversion are significantly (P<0.05) favored by increasing the energy density of the diet. Thus, it enables the application of models for maximum profit (nonlinear formulation), to estimate the proportion of weight gain most appropriate according to the price paid by the market.
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Objective To assess the diagnostic accuracy of the surface electromyography (sEMG) parameters associated with referred anterior knee pain in diagnosing patellofemoral pain syndrome (PFPS). Design Sensitivity and specificity analysis. Setting Physical rehabilitation center and laboratory of biomechanics and motor control. Participants Pain-free subjects (n=29) and participants with PFPS (n=22) selected by convenience. Interventions Not applicable. Main Outcome Measure The diagnostic accuracy was calculated for sEMG parameters’ reliability, precision, and ability to differentiate participants with and without PFPS. The selected sEMG parameter associated with anterior knee pain was considered as an index test and was compared with the reference standard for the diagnosis of PFPS. Intraclass correlation coefficient, SEM, independent t tests, sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive likelihood ratios, and negative and positive predictive values were used for the statistical analysis. Results The medium-frequency band (B2) parameter was reliable (intraclass correlation coefficient=.80–.90), precise (SEM=2.71–3.87 normalized unit), and able to differentiate participants with and without PFPS (P<.05). The association of B2 with anterior knee pain showed positive diagnostic accuracy values (specificity, .87; sensitivity, .70; negative likelihood ratio, .33; positive likelihood ratio, 5.63; negative predictive value, .72; and positive predictive value, .86). Conclusions The results provide evidence to support the use of EMG signals (B2 – frequency band of 45–96Hz) of the vastus lateralis and vastus medialis muscles with referred anterior knee pain in the diagnosis of PFPS.
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Considering the importance of spatial issues in transport planning, the main objective of this study was to analyze the results obtained from different approaches of spatial regression models. In the case of spatial autocorrelation, spatial dependence patterns should be incorporated in the models, since that dependence may affect the predictive power of these models. The results obtained with the spatial regression models were also compared with the results of a multiple linear regression model that is typically used in trips generation estimations. The findings support the hypothesis that the inclusion of spatial effects in regression models is important, since the best results were obtained with alternative models (spatial regression models or the ones with spatial variables included). This was observed in a case study carried out in the city of Porto Alegre, in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, in the stages of specification and calibration of the models, with two distinct datasets.
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Considering the high competitiveness in the industrial chemical sector, demand forecast is a relevant factor for decision-making. There is a need for tools capable of assisting in the analysis and definition of the forecast. In that sense, the objective is to generate the chemical industry forecast using an advanced forecasting model and thus verify the accuracy of the method. Because it is time series with seasonality, the model of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average - SARIMA generated reliable forecasts and acceding to the problem analyzed, thus enabling, through validation with real data improvements in the management and decision making of supply chain