60 resultados para Discrete Markov Random Field Modeling


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Structural damage identification is basically a nonlinear phenomenon; however, nonlinear procedures are not used currently in practical applications due to the complexity and difficulty for implementation of such techniques. Therefore, the development of techniques that consider the nonlinear behavior of structures for damage detection is a research of major importance since nonlinear dynamical effects can be erroneously treated as damage in the structure by classical metrics. This paper proposes the discrete-time Volterra series for modeling the nonlinear convolution between the input and output signals in a benchmark nonlinear system. The prediction error of the model in an unknown structural condition is compared with the values of the reference structure in healthy condition for evaluating the method of damage detection. Since the Volterra series separate the response of the system in linear and nonlinear contributions, these indexes are used to show the importance of considering the nonlinear behavior of the structure. The paper concludes pointing out the main advantages and drawbacks of this damage detection methodology. © (2013) Trans Tech Publications.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Pós-graduação em Matematica Aplicada e Computacional - FCT

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Diatraea saccharalis Fabr. (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) is a major sugarcane pest in Brazil. The management of infested areas is based on the release of Cotesia flavipes (Cameron) (Hymenoptera: Braconidae), a parasitoid of D. saccharalis larvae, but there are doubts about the effectiveness of C. flavipes, primarily regarding its rate of dispersal in sugarcane fields. Thus, the objective of this study was to evaluate the dispersal of C. flavipes in a sugarcane field and suggest a release method that provides higher parasitoid efficiency. The study was carried out in four areas of approximately 1 ha, in which stalk pieces containing 20 D. saccharalis larvae were distributed in a rectangular grid, and 12,000 C. flavipes adults were released at four points, that were 50 m apart and 25 m from the field border. Three days later, the D. saccharalis larvae were recovered and kept in the laboratory until they reached pupal stage or C. flavipes emergence. Parasitism varied from 13.2% to 42.8%. The random distribution of parasitized larvae was found in one assay. In three areas, the parasitized larvae showed an aggregated distribution, with a range of 15 to 25 m. Since the parasite's success is directly linked to parasitoid dispersion, it would be interesting to move the release points to 30 m from each other because the dispersal may happen in a 15 m radius.

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Several countries have invested in technologies for Smart Grids. Among such protocols designed cover this area, highlights the DNP3 (Distributed Network Protocol version 3). Although the DNP3 be developed for operation over the serial interface, there is a trend in the literature to the use of other interfaces. The Zigbee wireless interface has become more popular in the industrial applications. In order to study the challenges of integrating of these two protocols, this article is presented the analysis of DNP3 protocol stack through state machines The encapsulation of DNP3 messages in P2P (point-to-point) ZigBee Network, may assist in the discovery and solution of failures of availability and security of this integration. The ultimate goal is to merge the features of DNP3 and Zigbee stacks, and display a solution that provides the benefits of wireless environment, without impairment of security required for Smart Grid applications.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Landscape fires show large variability in the amount of biomass or fuel consumed per unit area burned. Fuel consumption (FC) depends on the biomass available to burn and the fraction of the biomass that is actually combusted, and can be combined with estimates of area burned to assess emissions. While burned area can be detected from space and estimates are becoming more reliable due to improved algorithms and sensors, FC is usually modeled or taken selectively from the literature. We compiled the peerreviewed literature on FC for various biomes and fuel categories to understand FC and its variability better, and to provide a database that can be used to constrain biogeochemical models with fire modules. We compiled in total 77 studies covering 11 biomes including savanna (15 studies, average FC of 4.6 t DM (dry matter) ha 1 with a standard deviation of 2.2), tropical forest (n = 19, FC = 126 +/- 77), temperate forest (n = 12, FC = 58 +/- 72), boreal forest (n = 16, FC = 35 +/- 24), pasture (n = 4, FC = 28 +/- 9.3), shifting cultivation (n = 2, FC = 23, with a range of 4.0-43), crop residue (n = 4, FC = 6.5 +/- 9.0), chaparral (n = 3, FC = 27 +/- 19), tropical peatland (n = 4, FC = 314 +/- 196), boreal peatland (n = 2, FC = 42 [42-43]), and tundra (n = 1, FC = 40). Within biomes the regional variability in the number of measurements was sometimes large, with e. g. only three measurement locations in boreal Russia and 35 sites in North America. Substantial regional differences in FC were found within the defined biomes: for example, FC of temperate pine forests in the USA was 37% lower than Australian forests dominated by eucalypt trees. Besides showing the differences between biomes, FC estimates were also grouped into different fuel classes. Our results highlight the large variability in FC, not only between biomes but also within biomes and fuel classes. This implies that substantial uncertainties are associated with using biome-averaged values to represent FC for whole biomes. Comparing the compiled FC values with co-located Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3) FC indicates that modeling studies that aim to represent variability in FC also within biomes, still require improvements as they have difficulty in representing the dynamics governing FC.

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Background: Cancer is the second leading cause of death in Argentina, and there is little knowledge about its incidence. The first study based on population-based cancer registry described spatial incidence and indicated that there existed at least county-level aggregation. The aim of the present work is to model the incidence patterns for the most incidence cancer in Córdoba Province, Argentina, using information from the Córdoba Cancer Registry by performing multilevel mixed model approach to deal with dependence and unobserved heterogeneity coming from the geo-reference cancer occurrence. Methods: Standardized incidence rates (world standard population) (SIR) by sex based on 5-year age groups were calculated for 109 districts nested on 26 counties for the most incidence cancers in Cordoba using 2004 database. A Poisson twolevel random effect model representing unobserved heterogeneity between first level-districts and second level-counties was fitted to assess the spatial distribution of the overall and site specific cancer incidence rates. Results: SIR cancer at Córdoba province shown an average of 263.53±138.34 and 200.45±98.30 for men and women, respectively. Considering the ratio site specific mean SIR to the total mean, breast cancer ratio was 0.25±0.19, prostate cancer ratio was 0.12±0.10 and lower values for lung and colon cancer for both sexes. The Poisson two-level random intercepts model fitted for SIR data distributed with overdispersion shown significant hierarchical structure for the cancer incidence distribution. Conclusions: a strong spatial-nested effect for the cancer incidence in Córdoba was observed and will help to begin the study of the factors associated with it.