Population dynamics of Lucilia eximia (Dipt., Calliphoridae)

The theoretical dynamics of experimental populations of Lucilia eximia was investigated as an attempt to understand its population biology. Specifically the population dynamics of L. eximia was analysed by means of a mathematical model that incorporates fecundity and survival as density-dependent demographic parameters in discrete time. The sensitivity of these parameters to changes in the magnitude was also investigated. The mathematical model applied to experimental populations of L. eximia predicts a theoretical one-point equilibrium for immatures. The population dynamics of L. eximia is compared to the dynamics of Chrysomya species and Cochliomyia macellaria.

Agent-based model to rural-urban migration analysis

In this paper, we analyze the rural-urban migration phenomenon as it is usually observed in economies which are in the early stages of industrialization. The analysis is conducted by means of a statistical mechanics approach which builds a computational agent-based model. Agents are placed on a lattice and the connections among them are described via an Ising-like model. Simulations on this computational model show some emergent properties that are common in developing economies, such as a transitional dynamics characterized by continuous growth of urban population, followed by the equalization of expected wages between rural and urban sectors (Harris-Todaro equilibrium condition), urban concentration and increasing of per capita income. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Two-Way Selection for Daily Gain and Feed Conversion in a Composite Rabbit Population

We conducted a two-way selection experiment in a composite rabbit population to investigate the responses to selection for postweaning ADG and feed conversion (FC). Two generations of crossing, followed by four generations of random pair matings, preceded three generations of selection. Selection was practiced within four lines: high-feed conversion (HFC), low-feed conversion (LFC), high gain (HG), and low gain (LG). Data on 1,446 rabbits from the random mating and selection generations were fitted to an animal model to estimate heritabilities of and the genetic correlation between ADG and FC. The two-trait model included rabbit and common litter random effects and line, generation, and sex fixed effects. Estimates of heritability of ADG and FC were .48 and .29, respectively, and the genetic correlation between them was -.82. Common litter environmental effects accounted for a proportion of .11 and . 13 of the phenotypic variation of the two traits, respectively. For ADG (in g/d) the regressions of mean breeding values on generation number during the selection period were 1.23 ± .12 (P < .01) in the HG line and -.86 ± .12 (P < .01) in the LG line; the regressions for FC (in g feed/g gain) were -.07 ± .01 (P < .01) in the HFC line and .03 ± .01 (P < .05) in the LFC line. Selection for ADG was effective in improving ADG and FC.

A Harris-Todaro agent-based model to rural-urban migration

The Harris-Todaro model of the rural-urban migration process is revisited under an agent-based approach. The migration of the workers is interpreted as a process of social learning by imitation, formalized by a computational model. By simulating this model, we observe a transitional dynamics with continuous growth of the urban fraction of overall population toward an equilibrium. Such an equilibrium is characterized by stabilization of rural-urban expected wages differential (generalized Harris-Todaro equilibrium condition), urban concentration and urban unemployment. These classic results obtained originally by Harris and Todaro are emergent properties of our model.

Growth curves for ostriches (Struthio camelus) in a Brazilian population

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Phenotypic plasticity of composite beef cattle performance using reaction norms model with unknown covariate

The objective of the present study was to determine the presence of genotype by environment interaction (G × E) and to characterize the phenotypic plasticity of birth weight (BW), weaning weight (WW), postweaning weight gain (PWG) and yearling scrotal circumference (SC) in composite beef cattle using the reaction norms model with unknown covariate. The animals were born between 1995 and 2008 on 33 farms located throughout all Brazilian biomes between latitude -7 and -31, longitude -40 and -63. The contemporary group was chosen as the environmental descriptor, that is, the environmental covariate of the reaction norms. In general, higher estimates of direct heritability were observed in extreme favorable environments. The mean of direct heritability across the environmental gradient ranged from 0.05 to 0.51, 0.09 to 0.43, 0.01 to 0.43 and from 0.12 to 0.26 for BW, WW, PWG and SC, respectively. The variation in direct heritability observed indicates a different response to selection according to the environment in which the animals of the population are evaluated. The correlation between the level and slope of the reaction norm for BW and PWG was high, indicating that animals with higher average breeding values responded better to improvement in environmental conditions, a fact characterizing a scale of G × E. Low correlation between the intercept and slope was obtained for WW and SC, implying re-ranking of animals in different environments. Genetic variation exists in the sensitivity of animals to the environment, a fact that permits the selection of more plastic or robust genotypes in the population studied. Thus, the G × E is an important factor that should be considered in the genetic evaluation of the present population of composite beef cattle. © The Animal Consortium 2012.

Population dynamics of the seabob shrimp Xiphopenaeus kroyeri (Dendrobranchiata, Penaeidae) in south-eastern Brazil

The population dynamics, including the sex ratio, reproductive period, individual growth and longevity, and population structure of the shrimp Xiphopenaeus kroyeri, are described. The shrimps were collected monthly from July 2005 to June 2007 at four sites in Ubatuba Bay, Brazil. The salinity, temperature, depth, organic matter content and sediment grain size were measured at each site. Specimens were quantified and sexed, their carapace length measured and their gonads were classified according to the stage of maturation. A von Bertalanffy model was used to estimate the individual growth, and longevity was calculated using its inverted formula. In total, 6 470 individuals were examined and the number of males and females differed significantly in favour of females. During some periods, the segregation could be related to the reproductive period. Reproductive females were captured throughout the sampled period, and there were biannual peaks that were followed by peaks of juveniles. Carapace growth was less for males than for females, which is likely related to oocyte production and the higher fecundity of the females. The higher probability of female capture can be related to their longer foraging to sustain the enhanced food requirement during the ovarian maturation period. © 2013 Copyright NISC (Pty) Ltd.

Infection patterns of Paradollfusnema amphisbaenia (Nematoda: Cosmocercidae) in a population of Amphisbaena wuchereri (Squamata: Amphisbaenidae) from Minas Gerais state, south-eastern Brazil, and its relations with host size, sex and fat body mass

Specimens (n= 41) of the amphisbaenid Amphisbaena wuchereri taken from a population in Minas Gerais state, south-eastern Brazil, were examined for gastrointestinal parasites. A single nematode species was found, Paradollfusnema amphisbaenia. This was a new host record for this nematode species. This parasite was encountered in the large intestine (prevalence of 100%), in the stomach (prevalence of 2%) and in the small intestine (prevalence of 7.3%). The intensity of infection ranged from 1 to 457 individual parasites per host and was positively correlated with body size of both male and female amphisbaenians. The discrepancy index (D) indicated that P. amphisbaenia tended to an even distribution in this host population. The nematode, which did not affect fat body mass, induced inflammatory infiltrations in the small intestine, indicating that the parasites might injure the host's organs. Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2012.

Interaction between GIS and hydrologic model: a preliminary approach using ArcHydro Framework Data Model

In different regions of Brazil, population growth and economic development can degrade water quality, compromising watershed health and human supply. Because of its ability to combine spatial and temporal data in the same environment and to create water resources management (WRM) models, the Geographical Information System (GIS) is a powerful tool for managing water resources, preventing floods and estimating water supply. This paper discusses the integration between GIS and hydrological models and presents a case study relating to the upper section of the Paraíba do Sul Basin (Sao Paulo State portion), situated in the Southeast of Brazil. The case study presented in this paper has a database suitable for the basin's dimensions, including digitized topographic maps at a 50,000 scale. From an ArcGIS®/ArcHydro Framework Data Model, a geometric network was created to produce different raster products. This first grid derived from the digital elevation model grid (DEM) is the flow direction map followed by flow accumulation, stream and catchment maps. The next steps in this research are to include the different multipurpose reservoirs situated along the Paraíba do Sul River and to incorporate rainfall time series data in ArcHydro to build a hydrologic data model within a GIS environment in order to produce a comprehensive spatial-temporal model.

Sexual abuse and alcohol use among women in metropolitan Sao Paulo, Brazil: a general population study

OBJECTIVE:The present study aimed at estimating the prevalence of lifetime sexual abuse among women and at investigating its association with alcohol consumption.METHOD:Population-based survey conducted through a representative and stratified cluster sample of metropolitan São Paulo. GENACIS questionnaire was used. Sample unit was the home, and all residents aged 18 years and over were interviewed. The outcome was lifetime sexual abuse. The univariate statistical analysis used the Rao-Scott test. Logistic regression was used for the multivariate analysis.RESULTS:The final sample totalized 1,216 women aged 18 years and over; the response rate was 75.0%. Most women were married (56.6%) and had less than 12 years of formal education (59.0%); 46.2% were aged between 25 and 44 years, and 44.4% had a low income. Of the respondents, 7.5% reported having suffered lifetime sexual abuse. Multiple logistic regression model showed an association between lifetime sexual abuse and being a heavy drinker (OR = 4.97) and being a former drinker (OR = 2.04).CONCLUSIONS:There are few population studies in Brazil investigating sexual abuse and its relation to alcohol use. Although the prevalence of lifetime sexual abuse in the present study was smaller than that observed in other studies, it is a highly expressive percentage on account of its social and economic impact, as well as its potential effect on the health system.

Recent and future environmental suitability to dengue fever in Brazil using species distribution model

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A new probabilistic canopy dynamics model (SLCD) that is suitable for evergreen and deciduous forest ecosystems

There are strong uncertainties regarding LAI dynamics in forest ecosystems in response to climate change. While empirical growth & yield models (G&YMs) provide good estimations of tree growth at the stand level on a yearly to decennial scale, process-based models (PBMs) use LAI dynamics as a key variable for enabling the accurate prediction of tree growth over short time scales. Bridging the gap between PBMs and G&YMs could improve the prediction of forest growth and, therefore, carbon, water and nutrient fluxes by combining modeling approaches at the stand level.Our study aimed to estimate monthly changes of leaf area in response to climate variations from sparse measurements of foliage area and biomass. A leaf population probabilistic model (SLCD) was designed to simulate foliage renewal. The leaf population was distributed in monthly cohorts, and the total population size was limited depending on forest age and productivity. Foliage dynamics were driven by a foliation function and the probabilities ruling leaf aging or fall. Their formulation depends on the forest environment.The model was applied to three tree species growing under contrasting climates and soil types. In tropical Brazilian evergreen broadleaf eucalypt plantations, the phenology was described using 8 parameters. A multi-objective evolutionary algorithm method (MOEA) was used to fit the model parameters on litterfall and LAI data over an entire stand rotation. Field measurements from a second eucalypt stand were used to validate the model. Seasonal LAI changes were accurately rendered for both sites (R-2 = 0.898 adjustment, R-2 = 0.698 validation). Litterfall production was correctly simulated (R-2 = 0.562, R-2 = 0.4018 validation) and may be improved by using additional validation data in future work. In two French temperate deciduous forests (beech and oak), we adapted phenological sub-modules of the CASTANEA model to simulate canopy dynamics, and SLCD was validated using LAI measurements. The phenological patterns were simulated with good accuracy in the two cases studied. However, IA/max was not accurately simulated in the beech forest, and further improvement is required.Our probabilistic approach is expected to contribute to improving predictions of LAI dynamics. The model formalism is general and suitable to broadleaf forests for a large range of ecological conditions. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of criteria for metabolic syndrome in a population-based study of Japanese-Brazilians

Objective: Criteria for metabolic syndrome (MS) differ particularly regarding the definition of central obesity and consequently, there could be differences in the assessment of cardiovascular risk. We estimated the prevalence of metabolic syndrome, compared the agreement of the World Health Organization (WHO) criteria with the standard and a modified National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) criterion and investigated whether additional factors were associated with the diagnosis of the syndrome in a Japanese descendant population.Methods: In this cross-sectional, population-based survey, 1166 Japanese-Brazilians (533 men, 633 women) aged 57.4 +/- 12.4 years with mean body mass index (BMI) and waist of 25.2 +/- 4.0 kg/m(2) and 84.5 +/- 10.6 cm, respectively, were included. McNemar and kappa statistics were used to assess the concordance between WHO criteria with the standard and a modified NCEP criteria (waist of 90 and 80 cm, for men and women, respectively). in logistic regression analysis, a number of metabolic variables and albumin-to-creatinine ratio were included to test independent associations with metabolic syndrome defined by the modified NCEP criteria.Results: According to WHO, 55.4% (95% Cl 52.5-58.2%) of the subjects had MS and to NCEP 47.4% (95% Cl 44.6-50.0%). WHO criterion detected 48.3% of central obese subjects while NCEP only 14.0%. Kappa statistics showed a good strength of agreement (k = 0.67, p < 0.01) between WHO and NCEP standard definitions of MS. Using the modified NCEP criterion for Asians, more subjects with metabolic syndrome were identified (58%) and agreement with WHO was improved (k = 0.72, p < 0.001). However, similar Framingham risk scores were attributed to the subsets of subjects classified by any of the three criteria. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves, obtained for the modified waist values to diagnose metabolic syndrome according to WHO, were > 0.80 and corresponded, respectively, to sensitivity and specificity of 63 and 83% for men and 77 and 72% for women. In final logistic regression model, age, male sex, BMI and homeostasis model assessment-insulin resistance but not with albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) were independently associated with the syndrome.Conclusions: High prevalence of MS, independent of the criterion considered, was found in this Japanese-Brazilian population. The replacement of waist cutoff by those proposed by WHO for Asians lead to this diagnosis in a higher number of subjects with elevated cardiovascular risk. Our data did not support that ACR should be included in the classical definition of MS in Japanese descendants as previously suggested by WHO.

Simulating Population Genetics of Pathogen Vectors in Changing Landscapes: Guidelines and Application with Triatoma brasiliensis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Population structure, sex ratio and growth of the seabob shrimp Xiphopenaeus kroyeri (Decapoda, Penaeidae) from coastal waters of southern Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)