Short-term multinodal load forecasting in distribution systems using general regression neural networks

Multinodal load forecasting deals with the loads of several interest nodes in an electrical network system, which is also known as bus load forecasting. To perform this demand, it is necessary a technique that is precise, trustable and has a short-time processing. This paper proposes two methodologies based on general regression neural networks for short-term multinodal load forecasting. The first individually forecast the local loads and the second forecast the global load and individually forecast the load participation factors to estimate the local loads. To design the forecasters it wasn't necessary the previous study of the local loads. Tests were made using a New Zealand distribution subsystem and the results obtained are compatible with the ones founded in the specialized literature. © 2011 IEEE.

A comparative study of MPPT strategies and a novel singlephase integrated buck-boost inverter for small wind energy conversion systems

This paper presents the analysis of some usual MPPT (Maximum Power Point Tracking) strategies intended for small wind energy conversion (up to 1kW) based on permanent magnet synchronous generators (PMSG), considering the stand-alone application for a novel buck-boost integrated inverter. Each MPPT method is analytically introduced and then it is simulated using MatLab/Simulink considering standard conditions of wind and also commercially available turbines and generators. The extracted power in each case is compared with the maximum available power, so the tracking factor is calculated for each method. Thus, the focus is on the application to improve the efficiency of stand-alone wind energy conversion systems (WECS) with battery chargers and AC load supplied by inverter. Therefore, for this purpose a novel single phase buck-boost integrated inverter is introduced. Finally, the main experimental results for the introduced inverter are presented. © 2011 IEEE.

Considering Urban Dynamics in spatial electric load forecasting

When dealing with spatio-temporal simulations of load growth inside a service zone, one of the most important problems faced by a Distribution Utility is how to represent the different relationships among different areas. A new load in a certain part of the city could modify the load growth in other parts of the city, even outside of its radius of influence. These interactions are called Urban Dynamics. This work aims to discuss how to implement Urban Dynamics considerations into the spatial electric load forecasting simulations using multi-agent simulations. To explain the approach, three examples are introduced, including the effect of an attraction load, the effect of a repulsive load, and the effect of several attraction/repulsive loads at the same time when considering the natural load growth. © 2012 IEEE.

Effect of working pressure at different spray nozzles on drift quantification in wind tunnel

Each year, there is an increase in pesticide consumption and in its importance of use in the large-scale agricultural production, being fundamental the knowledge of application technology to the activity success. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the influence of working pressure on the drift generated by different spray nozzles, assessed in wind tunnel. The treatments were composed of two spray nozzles AXI 110015 and AXI 11002 with pressure levels of 276 and 414 kPa. The spray solution was composed by water and NaCl at 10%. The applications were conducted at wind speed of 2.0 m s-1, being the drift collected at 5.0; 10.0 and 15.0 m away from the spray boom and at heights of 0.2; 0.4; 0.6; 0.8 e 1.0 m from the tunnel floor. To both spray nozzles, the greatest drift was collected at the smallest distance to the spray-boom and at the lowest height. The AXI 11002 nozzle gave a smaller drift relative to the AXI 110015 nozzle for the two tested pressures and for all the collection points. Regardless of the nozzle, a rise in the working pressure increases the spray drift percentage at all distances in the wind tunnel.

Redes neurais artificiais artmap-fuzzy aplicadas ao estudo de agitação marítima e ondas de lagos

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Previsão da velocidade dos ventos por redes neurais artificiais e arima de box & jenkins

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Análises, aplicações e validações–numérico/experimentais do modelo SWAN em áreas restritas e ao largo

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Wind-wave amplification mechanisms: possible models for steep wave events in finite depth

We extend the Miles mechanism of wind-wave generation to finite depth. A beta-Miles linear growth rate depending on the depth and wind velocity is derived and allows the study of linear growth rates of surface waves from weak to moderate winds in finite depth h. The evolution of beta is plotted, for several values of the dispersion parameter kh with k the wave number. For constant depths we find that no matter what the values of wind velocities are, at small enough wave age the beta-Miles linear growth rates are in the known deep-water limit. However winds of moderate intensities prevent the waves from growing beyond a critical wave age, which is also constrained by the water depth and is less than the wave age limit of deep water. Depending on wave age and wind velocity, the Jeffreys and Miles mechanisms are compared to determine which of them dominates. A wind-forced nonlinear Schrodinger equation is derived and the Akhmediev, Peregrine and Kuznetsov-Ma breather solutions for weak wind inputs in finite depth h are obtained.

Finite time blow-up and breaking of solitary wind waves

The evolution of surface water waves in finite depth under wind forcing is reduced to an antidissipative Korteweg-de Vries-Burgers equation. We exhibit its solitary wave solution. Antidissipation accelerates and increases the amplitude of the solitary wave and leads to blow-up and breaking. Blow-up occurs in finite time for infinitely large asymptotic space so it is a nonlinear, dispersive, and antidissipative equivalent of the linear instability which occurs for infinite time. Due to antidissipation two given arbitrary and adjacent planes of constant phases of the solitary wave acquire different velocities and accelerations inducing breaking. Soliton breaking occurs in finite space in a time prior to the blow-up. We show that the theoretical growth in amplitude and the time of breaking are both testable in an existing experimental facility.

The bias in reversing the Box-Cox transformation in time series forecasting: An empirical study based on neural networks

The Box-Cox transformation is a technique mostly utilized to turn the probabilistic distribution of a time series data into approximately normal. And this helps statistical and neural models to perform more accurate forecastings. However, it introduces a bias when the reversion of the transformation is conducted with the predicted data. The statistical methods to perform a bias-free reversion require, necessarily, the assumption of Gaussianity of the transformed data distribution, which is a rare event in real-world time series. So, the aim of this study was to provide an effective method of removing the bias when the reversion of the Box-Cox transformation is executed. Thus, the developed method is based on a focused time lagged feedforward neural network, which does not require any assumption about the transformed data distribution. Therefore, to evaluate the performance of the proposed method, numerical simulations were conducted and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error, the Theil Inequality Index and the Signal-to-Noise ratio of 20-step-ahead forecasts of 40 time series were compared, and the results obtained indicate that the proposed reversion method is valid and justifies new studies. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Determining spatial resolution in spatial load forecasting using a grid-based model

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Singular value analyses of voltage stability on power system considering wind generation variability

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

The climatic rhythm and blooms of cyanobacteria in a tropical reservoir in São Paulo, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Attraction of the sand fly Nyssomyia neivai (Diptera: Psychodidae) to chemical compounds in a wind tunnel

Background: Similar to other hematophagous insects, male and female sand flies must feed on plants to obtain sugar and, subsequently, energy to complete their life cycles. A large number of compounds emitted by plants may act as volatile signals to these insects. Primary alcohols have been detected in some plants, but in small amounts. In a previous report, the attractiveness of saturated primary alcohols with 7 to 9 carbons was evaluated for Lutzomyia longipalpis, the vector of American visceral leishmaniasis, with positive results.Methods: In the present study, a wide range of primary alcohols, 3 to 10 carbons, were tested to investigate their attractiveness to another sand fly species, Nyssomyia neivai, a putative vector of American cutaneous leishmaniasis. The mixture of compounds that induced the best sand fly response was also evaluated.Results: Of the eight compounds evaluated, hexanol and octanol elicited the best attractive responses for sand fly females.Conclusion: Phytochemicals may be an interesting source of search for new sand fly attractants.

Estimation of a preference map of new consumers for spatial load forecasting simulation methods using a spatial analysis of points

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)