A Cellular Automaton Approach to Spatial Electric Load Forecasting

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Distribution of paracoccidioidomycosis: determination of ecologic correlates through spatial analyses

Paracoccidioidomycosis (PCM) is endemic in Latin America and in countries like Brazil it carries a high mortality rate. The fungus' habitat has not been precisely determined. The present study aims to identify ecologic correlates based on PCM distribution in a hyper-endemic area in southeastern Brazil. The Geographic Information System (GIS) and spatial statistics were used to associate environmental attributes, human population density and, PCM distribution. By means of the Pearson r correlation coefficient, the highest statistically significant associations with prevalence density were the percent area (by county) of: basaltic rocks (r = 0.63; P < 0.0001), Podzolic soils (r = - 0.48; P < 0.001), Latosol soils (r = 0.40; P < 0.01), mean annual precipitation between 1500 and 1600 mm (r = 0.46; P < 0.001) and, mean precipitation during the wet season between 940 and 1040 mm (r = - 0.44; P < 0.01). Soil texture and precipitation analyzed together reached r = 0.61 (P < 0.000002) for fine-textured soils with annual precipitation above 1400 mm. Environmental correlates indicate that moisture availability plays an important role in PCM distribution.

Spatial distribution of trachoma cases in the City of Bauru, State of São Paulo, Brazil, detected in 2006: defining key areas for improvement of health resources

Introduction: The objective of this study was to analyze the spatial behavior of the occurrence of trachoma cases detected in the City of Bauru, State of São Paulo, Brazil, in 2006 in order to use the information collected to set priority areas for optimization of health resources. Methods: the trachoma cases identified in 2006 were georeferenced. The data evaluated were: schools where the trachoma cases studied, data from the 2000 Census, census tract, type of housing, water supply conditions, distribution of income and levels of education of household heads. In the Google Earth® software and TerraView® were made descriptive spatial analysis and estimates of the Kernel. Each area was studied by interpolation of the density surfaces exposing events to facilitate to recognize the clusters. Results: of the 66 cases detected, only one (1.5%) was not a resident of the city's outskirts. A positive association was detected of trachoma cases and the percentage of heads of household with income below three minimum wages and schooling under eight years of education. Conclusions: The recognition of the spatial distribution of trachoma cases coincided with the areas of greatest social inequality in Bauru City. The micro-areas identified are those that should be prioritized in the rationalization of health resources. There is the possibility of using the trachoma cases detected as an indicator of performance of micro priority health programs.

Spatial Distribution of Seropositive Dogs to Leptospira spp. and Evaluation of Leptospirosis Risk Factors Using a Decision Tree

Background: Leptospirosis is an important zoonotic disease associated with poor areas of urban settings of developing countries and early diagnosis and prompt treatment may prevent disease. Although rodents are reportedly considered the main reservoirs of leptospirosis, dogs may develop the disease, may become asymptomatic carriers and may be used as sentinels for disease epidemiology. The use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) combined with spatial analysis techniques allows the mapping of the disease and the identification and assessment of health risk factors. Besides the use of GIS and spatial analysis, the technique of data mining, decision tree, can provide a great potential to find a pattern in the behavior of the variables that determine the occurrence of leptospirosis. The objective of the present study was to apply Geographical Information Systems and data prospection (decision tree) to evaluate the risk factors for canine leptospirosis in an area of Curitiba, PR.Materials, Methods & Results: The present study was performed on the Vila Pantanal, a urban poor community in the city of Curitiba. A total of 287 dog blood samples were randomly obtained house-by-house in a two-day sampling on January 2010. In addition, a questionnaire was applied to owners at the time of sampling. Geographical coordinates related to each household of tested dog were obtained using a Global Positioning System (GPS) for mapping the spatial distribution of reagent and non-reagent dogs to leptospirosis. For the decision tree, risk factors included results of microagglutination test (MAT) from the serum of dogs, previous disease on the household, contact with rats or other dogs, dog breed, outdoors access, feeding, trash around house or backyard, open sewer proximity and flooding. A total of 189 samples (about 2/3 of overall samples) were randomly selected for the training file and consequent decision rules. The remained 98 samples were used for the testing file. The seroprevalence showed a pattern of spatial distribution that involved all the Pantanal area, without agglomeration of reagent animals. In relation to data mining, from 189 samples used in decision tree, a total of 165 (87.3%) animal samples were correctly classified, generating a Kappa index of 0.413. A total of 154 out of 159 (96.8%) samples were considered non-reagent and were correctly classified and only 5/159 (3.2%) were wrongly identified. on the other hand, only 11 (36.7%) reagent samples were correctly classified, with 19 (63.3%) samples failing diagnosis.Discussion: The spatial distribution that involved all the Pantanal area showed that all the animals in the area are at risk of contamination by Leptospira spp. Although most samples had been classified correctly by the decision tree, a degree of difficulty of separability related to seropositive animals was observed, with only 36.7% of the samples classified correctly. This can occur due to the fact of seronegative animals number is superior to the number of seropositive ones, taking the differences in the pattern of variable behavior. The data mining helped to evaluate the most important risk factors for leptospirosis in an urban poor community of Curitiba. The variables selected by decision tree reflected the important factors about the existence of the disease (default of sewer, presence of rats and rubbish and dogs with free access to street). The analyses showed the multifactorial character of the epidemiology of canine leptospirosis.

Disturbance chemical cues determine changes in spatial occupation by the convict cichlid Archocentrus nigrofasciatus

I studied the effect of disturbance chemical cues on fish that make trade-offs between foraging in an open area and remaining in a safe refuge. I used convict cichlids Archocentrus nigrofasciatus that were either visually exposed to a predator (n = 8) or exposed to water conditioned by chemical cues from disturbed conspecifics (n = 8). Fish visually exposed to a predator decreased their ingestion rate and spent more time in the refuge than in the foraging area, while fish receiving water from frightened conspecifics did not alter their ingestion rate or time spent in the refuge and foraging site, but increased their spatial occupation (i.e., motion). These results suggest that convict cichlids recognized the predator by visual cues. Moreover, disturbance cues are a form of threatening public information that may increase fish spatial occupation due to increased exploring behaviour; but is not sufficiently alarming to alter feeding or increase refuge use. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Temporal patterns of parasitism in Diatraea saccharalis Fabr. (Lep., Crambidae) populations at different spatial scales in sugarcane fields in Brazil

Biological control of Diatraea saccharalis is regarded as one of the best examples of successful classical biological control in Brazil. Since the introduction of the exotic parasitoid, Cotesia flavipes, from Pakistan at the beginning of the 1970s, decrease in D. saccharalis infestation in sugarcane fields has been attributed to the effectiveness of this agent. Recently, the native Tachinidae fly parasitoids (Lydella minense and Paratheresia claripalpis) have also been implicated in this success. However, quantitative data confirming the actual contribution of these agents to the control of D. saccharalis are rather limited. The purpose of this study was to investigate the dynamics of the interactions between D. saccharalis and its parasitoids, emphasizing the temporal patterns of parasitism. To investigate this question, a large data set comprising information collected from two sugarcane mills located in the state of São Paulo, Brazil (Barra and Sao Joao sugarcane mills), was analysed. Basically, the data set contained monthly information about the number of D. saccharalis larvae and their parasitoids in each sample (man-hour per sample), the sugarcane varieties cultivated, the age of the sugarcane plants (only at the Sao Joao sugarcane mill) as well as the sugarcane cut at sampling time. The data were collected from March 1984 to March 1997 and from May 1982 to December 1996 for the Barra and Sao Joao sugarcane mills, respectively. Temporal inverse density-dependent parasitism was predominant for both parasitoid species with respect to all spatial scales. Although the temporal pattern of parasitism was not directly density dependent, it was evident that the tachinids and C. flavipes presented positive numerical responses according to variations in D. saccharalis densities through time.

Spatial and temporal population interactions between the parasitoids Cotesia flavipes and Tachinidae flies: considerations on the adverse effects of biological control practice

Biological control of Diatraea saccharalis is regarded as one of the best examples of successful classical biological control in Brazil. Since the introduction of the exotic parasitoid Cotesia flavipes, the decrease of D. saccharalis infestation in sugarcane fields has been attributed to the effectiveness of this agent. Recently, the native tachinid fly parasitoids (Lydella minense and Paratheresia claripalpis) have also been implicated in the success. Here, we investigated the spatial and temporal population interactions between C. flavipes and the tachinid flies, and provide a critical analysis of the biological control practice, focusing on the undesirable effects of introductions of exotic natural enemies. To investigate these questions, a large data set comprising information from two sugarcane mills located in the state of São Paulo, Brazil (Barra and Sao Joao Mills), was analysed. Analysis of the correlation between C. flavipes and tachinid fly population densities through time revealed that such populations were inversely correlated in the Sao Joao Mill and not correlated in the Barra Mill. Logistic regressions were computed to investigate the proportion of sites occupied by the parasitoid species at both mills as a function of time. An increasing trend in the proportion of sites occupied by C. flavipes was observed, with a concomitant decrease of the sites occupied by tachinid flies. This effect was more intense in the Sao Joao Mill. Thus, there is a convincing possibility that constant releases of C. flavipes decreased the tachinid fly populations, resulting in an undesirable effect of biological control practice.

Knowledge extraction using visualization of hemoglobin parameters to identify thalassemia

The analysis of large amounts of data is better performed by humans when represented in a graphical format. Therefore, a new research area called the Visual Data Mining is being developed endeavoring to use the number crunching power of computers to prepare data for visualization, allied to the ability of humans to interpret data presented graphically.This work presents the results of applying a visual data mining tool, called FastMapDB to detect the behavioral pattern exhibited by a dataset of clinical information about hemoglobinopathies known as thalassemia. FastMapDB is a visual data mining tool that get tabular data stored in a relational database such as dates, numbers and texts, and by considering them as points in a multidimensional space, maps them to a three-dimensional space. The intuitive three-dimensional representation of objects enables a data analyst to see the behavior of the characteristics from abnormal forms of hemoglobin, highlighting the differences when compared to data from a group without alteration.

Spatial and temporal distribution of fishing resources exploited by the Manaus fishing fleet, Amazonas, Brazil

Recursos pesqueiros são importantes fontes de renda e alimento para as populações rurais e urbanas na Amazônia. O presente trabalho avalia a pesca e as variáveis ambientais que determinam a produção de pescarias que desembarcam em Manaus, e avalia também a abundância relativa de recursos pesqueiros em diferentes subsistemas na Amazônia Central. A informação coletada no porto de desembarque de pescado de Manaus foi utilizada para testar um novo índice de captura obtido a partir de um modelo de covariância que apresentou as seguintes variáveis significativas: número de pescadores/dia (dias de pesca vezes número de pescadores por viagem); distância do pesqueiro até Manaus; quantidade de gelo que usou durante a viagem; e nível de rio. Não houve nenhuma diferença significativa entre valores médios de captura entre os subsistemas do Purus, Madeira e de Juruá. Estes resultados sugerem que os tributários da margem direita são similares e mais produtivos em termos comerciais. Concluiu-se que a produção corrente varia de acordo com a magnitude de esforço pesqueiro, por variações ambientais, assim como por aspectos operacionais da pesca, particularmente o consumo de gelo.

Spatial distribution of dengue in the city of Cruzeiro, São Paulo State, Brazil: use of geoprocessing tools

Este artigo tem por objetivo identificar padrões na distribuição espacial dos casos de dengue ocorridos no município de Cruzeiro/SP, no ano de 2006. Trata-se de um estudo ecológico e exploratório que utiliza as ferramentas de análise espacial na elaboração de mapas temáticos, com dados obtidos do SinanNet. Foi feita uma análise por área, tomando-se como unidade o setor censitário do IBGE; a análise considerou quatro meses do ano de 2006 que mostra a ocorrência da doença no município. Os mapas temáticos foram construídos pelo programa computacional TerraView 3.3.1; assim como os valores dos índices de Moran Global (I M) mês a mês e o estimador de Kernel. Foram georreferenciados 691 casos de dengue (taxa de 864,2 casos/100.000 habitantes); os Índices de Moran e p-valores obtidos foram I M = 0,080 (março) p = 0,11; I M = 0,285 (abril) p = 0,01; I M = 0,201 (maio) p = 0,01 e I M = 0,002 (junho) p = 0,57. Os primeiros casos foram identificados na região nordeste e central e os últimos casos, na região norte, nordeste e central. Foi possível identificar os setores censitários onde a epidemia teve início e como ocorreu têmporo-espacialmente no município.

Lignin from sugar cane bagasse: Extraction, fabrication of nanostructured films, and application

Four lignin samples were extracted from sugar cane bagasse using four different alcohols (methanol, ethanol, n-propanol, and 1-butanol) via the organosolv-CO2 supercritical pulping process. Langmuir films were characterized by surface pressure vs mean molecular area (Pi-A) isotherms to exploit information at the molecular level carrying out stability tests, cycles of compression/expansion (hysteresis), subphase temperature variations, and metallic ions dissolved into the water subphase at different concentrations. Briefly, it was observed that these lignins are relatively stable on the water surface when compared to those obtained via different extraction processes. Besides, the Pi-A isotherms are shifted to smaller molecular areas at higher subphase temperatures and to larger molecular areas when the metallic ions are dissolved into the subphase. The results are related to the formation of stable aggregates (domains) onto the water subphase by these lignins, as shown in the Pi-A isotherms. It was found as well that the most stable lignin monolayer onto the water subphase is that extracted with 1-butanol. Homogeneous Langmuir-Blodgett (LB) films of this lignin could be produced as confirmed by UV-vis absorption spectroscopy and the cumulative transfer parameter. In addition, FTIR analysis showed that this lignin LB film is structured in a way that the phenyl groups are organized preferentially parallel to the substrate surface. Further, these LB films were deposited onto gold interdigitated electrodes and ITO and applied in studies involving the detection of Cd+2 ions in aqueous solutions at low concentration levels throughimpedance spectroscopy and electrochemical measurements. FTIR spectroscopy was carried out before and after soaking the thin films into Cd+2 aqueous solutions, revealing a possible physical interaction between the lignin phenyl groups and the heavy metal ions. The importance of using nanostructured systems is demonstrated as well by comparing both LB and cast films.

Perceptual Information Integration: Hypothetical Role of Astrocytes

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Multi-Agent Framework for Spatial Load Forecasting

A multi-agent framework for spatial electric load forecasting, especially suited to simulate the different dynamics involved on distribution systems, is presented. The service zone is divided into several sub-zones, each subzone is considered as an independent agent identified with a corresponding load level, and their relationships with the neighbor zones are represented as development probabilities. With this setting, different kind of agents can be developed to simulate the growth pattern of the loads in distribution systems. This paper presents two different kinds of agents to simulate different situations, presenting some promissory results.

Georeferenced road extraction and formulation of hypotheses for new road segments

The acquisition and update of Geographic Information System (GIS) data are typically carried out using aerial or satellite imagery. Since new roads are usually linked to georeferenced pre-existing road network, the extraction of pre-existing road segments may provide good hypotheses for the updating process. This paper addresses the problem of extracting georeferenced roads from images and formulating hypotheses for the presence of new road segments. Our approach proceeds in three steps. First, salient points are identified and measured along roads from a map or GIS database by an operator or an automatic tool. These salient points are then projected onto the image-space and errors inherent in this process are calculated. In the second step, the georeferenced roads are extracted from the image using a dynamic programming (DP) algorithm. The projected salient points and corresponding error estimates are used as input for this extraction process. Finally, the road center axes extracted in the previous step are analyzed to identify potential new segments attached to the extracted, pre-existing one. This analysis is performed using a combination of edge-based and correlation-based algorithms. In this paper we present our approach and early implementation results.

Postural control in children: Coupling to dynamic somatosensory information

The purpose of this investigation was to determine whether the coupling between dynamic somatosensory information and body sway is similar in children and adults. Thirty children (4-, 6-, and 8-year-olds) and 10 adults stood upright, with feet parallel, and lightly contacting the fingertip to a rigid metal plate that moved rhythmically at 0.2, 0.5, and 0.8 Hz. Light touch to the moving contact surface induced postural sway in all participants. The somatosensory stimulus produced a broadband frequency response in children, while the adult response was primarily at the driving frequency. Gain, as a function of frequency, was qualitatively the same in children and adults. Phase decreased less in 4-year-olds than other age groups, suggesting a weaker coupling to position information in the sensory stimulus. Postural sway variability was larger in children than adults. These findings suggest that, even as young as age 6, children show well-developed coupling to the sensory stimulus. However, unlike adults, this coupling is not well focused at the frequency specified by the somatosensory signal. Children may be unable to uncouple from sensory information that is less relevant to the task, resulting in a broadband response in their frequency spectrum. Moreover, higher sway variability may not result from the sensory feedback process, but rather from the children's underdeveloped ability to estimate an internal model of body orientation.