220 resultados para Simulação em Estatística


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There are several papers on pruning methods in the artificial neural networks area. However, with rare exceptions, none of them presents an appropriate statistical evaluation of such methods. In this article, we proved statistically the ability of some methods to reduce the number of neurons of the hidden layer of a multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP), and to maintain the same landing of classification error of the initial net. They are evaluated seven pruning methods. The experimental investigation was accomplished on five groups of generated data and in two groups of real data. Three variables were accompanied in the study: apparent classification error rate in the test group (REA); number of hidden neurons, obtained after the application of the pruning method; and number of training/retraining epochs, to evaluate the computational effort. The non-parametric Friedman's test was used to do the statistical analysis.

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The epidemiological surveys are important to the deployment, implementation and evaluation of projects and health actions in a community. The planning, goals, samples, team training/calibration, carrying out and publication of results are extremely important in the epidemiological surveys. Thus, the care with the sample and statistical analysis is fundamental for the results to be consistent and trustworthy in order to be able to be inferred for all the population. The aims of this study is to investigate the statistical methodology used in papers on dental caries epidemiological surveys published from 1960 to 2001. A bibliographical survey was carried out in BBO, MEDLINE and SCIELO databases. The papers found were analyzed with regards to the statistical methodology applied in the whole study, from the sampling to the tabling of data. Most studies (72.6%) only presented the number of elements that composed the sample, without explaining the planning involved in obtaining it.

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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This work intends to analyze the application and execution time of a numerical algorithm that simulates incompressible and isothermal flows. It was used the explicit scheme of the Characteristic Based Split (CBS) algorithm and the Artificial Compressibility (AC) scheme for coupling pressure-velocity equations. The discretization was done with the finite element method using a bilinear elements grid. The free software GNU-Octave was used for implementation and execution of routines. The results were analyzed using the classic lid-driven cavity problem. This work shows results for tests with several Reynolds' number. The results for these tests show a good agreement when compared with previous ones obtained from bibliography. The code runtime's analysis shows yet that the matrix's assembly is the part of greater consumption time in the implementation.

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This article deals with the development of three competencies defined and studied in the context of Statistics Education (literacy, thinking and statistical reasoning). These competencies based on interpretation and understanding of critical information from real data are associated with an education geared toward the formation of critical citizenship and are in agreement with the principles that guide Critical Education. In this context, we consider Mathematical Modeling as a concrete possibility for integration between Critical Education and Education Statistics. We show that work with modeling projects in the classroom takes place in a context in which teaching is guided by the fundamentals of Critical Education. We present a project entitled Teaching Statistics and the financial market which illustrates the congruence between the objectives of Education Statistics and Critical Education.

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This article presents an exercise in meta-comprehension of what has been researched on teaching probability and statistics in Brazil. This research was based on the work on this subject presented in the third International Symposium for Research in Mathematics Education (III SIPEM). Articles were selected from the proceedings of the event analyzed hermeneuticly according to the procedures of phenomenology. We observed no evidence of clustering of research on this topic in terms of region or institutions, and we also emphasize that research on the teaching of Probability and Statistics needs to advance toward a theoretical discussion that transcends the subjects being studied and makes broader and deeper links between theory and practice. Findings also indicate that this sub-area of research in mathematics education is in the process of constituting itself.

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A dynamic systems water resources simulation model was developed as a tool to help to analyze water resources management alternatives for the Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundiaí River Water Basins (BH-PCJ). Different politics policy were simulated for 40-year. The model estimates water supply and demand, as well as contamination load from several consumers. Six runs were performed using average precipitation value, changing water supply and demand, and different volumes diverted from BH-PCJ to BH-Alto Tietê For the Business as Usual, the Sustainability Index went from 0.41 in 2010 to 0.22 by 2050; the Water Use Index changed from 80.7% in 2010, to 125.5% by 2050; and the Falkenmark Index changed from 1,302 m 3 person -1 year -1 in 2010 to 774 m 3 P -1 year -1 by 2050. It was noticed that sanitation is one of the biggest concerns in the near future at PCJ River Basin.

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According to CONAMA Resolution No. 357, the Água Branca Creek is framed in Class 2 and along its course the characteristics should be consistent with this class. Evaluation of diffuse loads and simulation of auto-purification in the Água Branca Creek allowed evaluating the alterations in the quality of the freshwater. The major contribution of diffuse loads in the basin of the White Water Creek is related to agriculture. The QUAL2K modeling identified the autopurification zones at Água Branca Creek and indicated the necessity BDO removal of 75%.

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In São Paulo state, deforestation and agriculture activities are increasing soil losses processes, especially in areas of susceptible soils where soil conservation practices are not adopted. Environmental adequacy at property level regarding Permanent Protection Areas and Legal Reserves is considered a potential factor for reducing soil losses and it was based on this fact that we assessed soil losses of different scenarios of environmental adequacy. Simulations of erosive processes were carried out in 15 catchments of the Corumbataí river basin, with different forest restoration scenarios, as well as the current situation of land use/ land cover. The scenarios include reforestation of Permanent Preservation Areas (PPA); the reforestation hydrological sensitive areas; and two scenarios, the Legal Reserve installation in 20% of each catchment, being one of them for most critical areas in terms of erosion and the other at random. It was observed that the establishment of PPA and the reforestation of hydrological sensitive areas (HSA), offered a small contribution to the control of the erosive process, resulting in a reduction of 10% and 7.4%, respectively, while the legal reserve in critical areas has the significant reduction of 69.8%. The random scenario, in turn, resulted in a reduction of 21.4% of erosion. Results show that reforestation can reduce soil losses, but previous studies of land prioritization and planning could significantly increase its efficiency.

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Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Agricultura) - FCA

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Pós-graduação em Biofísica Molecular - IBILCE

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Pós-graduação em Biofísica Molecular - IBILCE