A bayesian analysis for the parameters of the exponential-logarithmic distribution

The exponential-logarithmic is a new lifetime distribution with decreasing failure rate and interesting applications in the biological and engineering sciences. Thus, a Bayesian analysis of the parameters would be desirable. Bayesian estimation requires the selection of prior distributions for all parameters of the model. In this case, researchers usually seek to choose a prior that has little information on the parameters, allowing the data to be very informative relative to the prior information. Assuming some noninformative prior distributions, we present a Bayesian analysis using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Jeffreys prior is derived for the parameters of exponential-logarithmic distribution and compared with other common priors such as beta, gamma, and uniform distributions. In this article, we show through a simulation study that the maximum likelihood estimate may not exist except under restrictive conditions. In addition, the posterior density is sometimes bimodal when an improper prior density is used. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

The Poisson-exponential regression model under different latent activation schemes

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Benthic foraminiferal distribution on the southeastern Brazilian shelf and upper slope

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Lead distribution in organic matter of loamy oxisol treated with manure and its effect on microbial biomass

This paper reports a study regarding the distribution of lead in the organic matter fractions of a loamy oxisol treated with stable manure, and its effect on the soil microbial biomass. The experimental design was a completely randomized factorial with three replicates. Treatments were four lead (Pb) rates (0, 200, 400, and 600 mg kg(-1) soil), two levels of manure (0 and 30 Mg ha(-1)) and two sampling times (30 and 60 days after lead application). Total and soil lead soluble in Mehlich 1 extractant, and Ph in the different fractions of the organic matter (fulvic acid, humic acid, and residual) were evaluated along with the soil microbial biomass. Data showed that lead, applied as PbCl2, was concentrated in the residual fraction. The application of manure at the rate of 30 Mg ha(-1) did not affect lead distribution in the fractions until 60 days after incorporation. Lead extracted by Mehlich 1 increased as function of the quantity applied. Manure stimulated the growth of the soil microbial biomass which was reduced by the 200 mg kg(-1) doses of lead, with manure application, increasing, however, with larger rates. Mehlich 1 extracted only part of the lead present in the residual fraction.

Primary power distribution systems planning taking into account reliability, operation and expansion costs

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Mapping the Wigner distribution function of the Morse oscillator onto a semiclassical distribution function

The mapping of the Wigner distribution function (WDF) for a given bound state onto a semiclassical distribution function (SDF) satisfying the Liouville equation introduced previously by us is applied to the ground state of the Morse oscillator. The purpose of the present work is to obtain values of the potential parameters represented by the number of levels in the case of the Morse oscillator, for which the SDF becomes a faithful approximation of the corresponding WDF. We find that for a Morse oscillator with one level only, the agreement between the WDF and the mapped SDF is very poor but for a Morse oscillator of ten levels it becomes satisfactory. We also discuss the limit h --> 0 for fixed potential parameters.

Periodontal disease characterization in dogs with normal renal function or chronic renal failure

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Evaluation of Philips and Ziegler-Natta high-density polyethylene degradation during processing in an internal mixer using the chain scission and branching distribution function analysis

The oxidative and thermo-mechanical degradation of HDPE was studied during processing in an internal mixer under two conditions: totally and partially filled chambers, which provides lower and higher concentrations of oxygen, respectively. Two types of HDPEs, Phillips and Ziegler-Natta, having different levels of terminal vinyl unsaturations were analyzed. Materials were processed at 160, 200, and 240 degrees C. Standard rheograrns using a partially filled chamber showed that the torque is much more unstable in comparison to a totally filled chamber which provides an environment depleted of oxygen. Carbonyl and transvinylene group concentrations increased, whereas vinyl group concentration decreased with temperature and oxygen availability. Average number of chain scission and branching (n(s)) was calculated from MWD curves and its plotting versus functional groups' concentration showed that chain scission or branching takes place depending upon oxygen content and vinyl groups' consumption. Chain scission and branching distribution function (CSBDF) values showed that longer chains undergo chain scission easier than shorter ones due to their higher probability of entanglements. This yields macroradicals that react with the vinyl terminal unsaturations of other chains producing chain branching. Shorter chains are more mobile, not suffering scission but instead are used for grafting the macroradicals, increasing the molecular weight. Increase in the oxygen concentration, temperature, and vinyl end groups' content facilitates the thermo-mechanical degradation reducing the amount of both, longer chains via chain scission and shorter chains via chain branching, narrowing the polydispersity. Phillips HDPE produces a higher level of chain branching than the Ziegler-Natta's type at the same processing condition. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian estimation of generalized exponential distribution under noninformative priors

The generalized exponential distribution, proposed by Gupta and Kundu (1999), is a good alternative to standard lifetime distributions as exponential, Weibull or gamma. Several authors have considered the problem of Bayesian estimation of the parameters of generalized exponential distribution, assuming independent gamma priors and other informative priors. In this paper, we consider a Bayesian analysis of the generalized exponential distribution by assuming the conventional non-informative prior distributions, as Jeffreys and reference prior, to estimate the parameters. These priors are compared with independent gamma priors for both parameters. The comparison is carried out by examining the frequentist coverage probabilities of Bayesian credible intervals. We shown that maximal data information prior implies in an improper posterior distribution for the parameters of a generalized exponential distribution. It is also shown that the choice of a parameter of interest is very important for the reference prior. The different choices lead to different reference priors in this case. Numerical inference is illustrated for the parameters by considering data set of different sizes and using MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) methods.

A Note on the Prior Distributions of Weibull Parameters for the Reliability Function

In Bayesian Inference it is often desirable to have a posterior density reflecting mainly the information from sample data. To achieve this purpose it is important to employ prior densities which add little information to the sample. We have in the literature many such prior densities, for example, Jeffreys (1967), Lindley (1956); (1961), Hartigan (1964), Bernardo (1979), Zellner (1984), Tibshirani (1989), etc. In the present article, we compare the posterior densities of the reliability function by using Jeffreys, the maximal data information (Zellner, 1984), Tibshirani's, and reference priors for the reliability function R(t) in a Weibull distribution.

Optimized allocation of sectionalizing switches and control and protection devices for reliability indices improvement in distribution systems

Reliability of power supply is related, among other factors, to the control and protection devices allocation in feeders of distribution systems. In this way, optimized allocation of sectionalizing switches and protection devices in strategic points of distribution circuits, improves the quality of power supply and the system reliability indices. In this work, it is presented a mixed integer non-linear programming (MINLP) model, with real and binary variables, for the sectionalizing switches and protection devices allocation problem, in strategic sectors, aimed at improving reliability indices, increasing the utilities billing and fulfilling exigencies of regulatory agencies for the power supply. Optimized allocation of protection devices and switches for restoration, allows that those faulted sectors of the system can be isolated and repaired, re-managing loads of the analyzed feeder into the set of neighbor feeders. Proposed solution technique is a Genetic Algorithm (GA) developed exploiting the physical characteristics of the problem. Results obtained through simulations for a real-life circuit, are presented. © 2004 IEEE.

Chronological Monte Carlo-based assessment of distribution system reliability

Regulatory authorities in many countries, in order to maintain an acceptable balance between appropriate customer service qualities and costs, are introducing a performance-based regulation. These regulations impose penalties, and in some cases rewards, which introduce a component of financial risk to an electric power utility due to the uncertainty associated with preserving a specific level of system reliability. In Brazil, for instance, one of the reliability indices receiving special attention by the utilities is the Maximum Continuous Interruption Duration per customer (MCID). This paper describes a chronological Monte Carlo simulation approach to evaluate probability distributions of reliability indices, including the MCID, and the corresponding penalties. In order to get the desired efficiency, modern computational techniques are used for modeling (UML -Unified Modeling Language) as well as for programming (Object- Oriented Programming). Case studies on a simple distribution network and on real Brazilian distribution systems are presented and discussed. © Copyright KTH 2006.

Reliability of timber bridges using nailed plywood box beams

The Nailed Box Beam structural efficiency is directly dependent of the flange-web joint behavior, which determines the partial composition of the section, as the displacement between elements reduces the effective rigidity of the section and changes the stress distribution and the total displacement of the section. This work discusses the use of Nailed Plywood Box Beams in small span timber bridges, focusing on the reliability of the beam element. It is presented the results of tests carried out in 21 full scale Nailed Plywood Box Beams. The analysis of maximum load tests results shows that it presents a normal distribution, permitting the characteristic values calculation as the normal distribution theory specifies. The reliability of those elements was analyzed focusing on a timber bridge design, to estimate the failure probability in function of the load level.

Network reconfiguration of distribution systems using metaheuristics and reliability measures

In an evermore competitive environment, power distribution companies need to continuously monitor and improve the reliability indices of their systems. The network reconfiguration (NR) of a distribution system is a technique that well adapts to this new deregulated environment for it allows improvement of system reliability indices without the onus involved in procuring new equipment. This paper presents a reliability-based NR methodology that uses metaheuristic techniques to search for the optimal network configuration. Three metaheuristics, i.e. Tabu Search, Evolution Strategy, and Differential Evolution, are tested using a Brazilian distribution network and the results are discussed. © 2009 IEEE.

Improving the grid operation and reliability cost of distribution systems with dispersed generation

In this work, a mathematical model to analyze the impact of the installation and operation of dispersed generation units in power distribution systems is proposed. The main focus is to determine the trade-off between the reliability and operational costs of distribution networks when the operation of isolated areas is allowed. In order to increase the system operator revenue, an optimal power flow makes use of the different energy prices offered by the dispersed generation connected to the grid. Simultaneously, the type and location of the protective devices initially installed on the protection system are reconfigured in order to minimize the interruption and expenditure of adjusting the protection system to conditions imposed by the operation of dispersed units. The interruption cost regards the unsupplied energy to customers in secure systems but affected by the normal tripping of protective devices. Therefore, the tripping of fuses, reclosers, and overcurrent relays aims to protect the system against both temporary and permanent fault types. Additionally, in order to reduce the average duration of the system interruption experienced by customers, the isolated operation of dispersed generation is allowed by installing directional overcurrent relays with synchronized reclose capabilities. A 135-bus real distribution system is used in order to show the advantages of using the mathematical model proposed. © 1969-2012 IEEE.