Modelling frequency distributions of 5 minute-averaged solar radiation indexes using Beta probability functions

Five minute-averaged values of sky clearness, direct and diffuse indices, were used to model the frequency distributions of these variables in terms of optical air mass. From more than four years of solar radiation observations it was found that variations in the frequency distributions of the three indices of optical air mass for Botucatu, Brazil, are similar to those in other places, as published in the literature. The proposed models were obtained by linear combination of normalized Beta probability functions, using the observed distributions derived from three years of data. The versatility of these functions allows modelling of all three irradiance indexes to similar levels of accuracy. A comparison with the observed distributions obtained from one year of observations indicate that the models are able to reproduce the observed frequency distributions of all three indices at the 95% confidence level.

A Bayesian approach for assessing the stability of genotypes

Several statistical models can be used for assessing genotype X environment interaction (GEI) and studying genotypic stability. The objectives of this research were to show how (i) to use Bayesian methodology for computing Shukla's phenotypic stability variance and (ii) to incorporate prior information on the parameters for better estimation. Potato [Solanum tuberosum subsp. andigenum (Juz. & Bukasov) Hawkes], wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), and maize (Zea mays L.) multi environment trials (MET) were used for illustrating the application of the Bayes paradigm. The potato trial included 15 genotypes, but prior information for just three genotypes was used. The wheat trial used prior information on all 10 genotypes included in the trial, whereas for the maize trial, noninformative priors for the nine genotypes was used. Concerning the posterior distribution of the genotypic means, the maize MET with 20 sites gave less disperse posterior distributions of the genotypic means than did the posterior distribution of the genotypic means of the other METs, which included fewer environments. The Bayesian approach allows use of other statistical strategies such as the normal truncated distribution (used in this study). When analyzing grain yield, a lower bound of zero and an upper bound set by the researcher's experience can be used. The Bayesian paradigm offers plant breeders the possibility of computing the probability of a genotype being the best performer. The results of this study show that although some genotypes may have a very low probability of being the best in all sites, they have a relatively good chance of being among the five highest yielding genotypes.

Discrete coherent states and probability distributions in finite-dimensional spaces

Operator bases are discussed in connection with the construction of phase space representatives of operators in finite-dimensional spaces, and their properties are presented. It is also shown how these operator bases allow for the construction of a finite harmonic oscillator-like coherent state. Creation and annihilation operators for the Fock finite-dimensional space are discussed and their expressions in terms of the operator bases are explicitly written. The relevant finite-dimensional probability distributions are obtained and their limiting behavior for an infinite-dimensional space are calculated which agree with the well known results. (C) 1996 Academic Press, Inc.

A Note on the Prior Distributions of Weibull Parameters for the Reliability Function

In Bayesian Inference it is often desirable to have a posterior density reflecting mainly the information from sample data. To achieve this purpose it is important to employ prior densities which add little information to the sample. We have in the literature many such prior densities, for example, Jeffreys (1967), Lindley (1956); (1961), Hartigan (1964), Bernardo (1979), Zellner (1984), Tibshirani (1989), etc. In the present article, we compare the posterior densities of the reliability function by using Jeffreys, the maximal data information (Zellner, 1984), Tibshirani's, and reference priors for the reliability function R(t) in a Weibull distribution.

Elicitation of multivariate prior distributions: A nonparametric Bayesian approach

In the context of Bayesian statistical analysis, elicitation is the process of formulating a prior density f(.) about one or more uncertain quantities to represent a person's knowledge and beliefs. Several different methods of eliciting prior distributions for one unknown parameter have been proposed. However, there are relatively few methods for specifying a multivariate prior distribution and most are just applicable to specific classes of problems and/or based on restrictive conditions, such as independence of variables. Besides, many of these procedures require the elicitation of variances and correlations, and sometimes elicitation of hyperparameters which are difficult for experts to specify in practice. Garthwaite et al. (2005) discuss the different methods proposed in the literature and the difficulties of eliciting multivariate prior distributions. We describe a flexible method of eliciting multivariate prior distributions applicable to a wide class of practical problems. Our approach does not assume a parametric form for the unknown prior density f(.), instead we use nonparametric Bayesian inference, modelling f(.) by a Gaussian process prior distribution. The expert is then asked to specify certain summaries of his/her distribution, such as the mean, mode, marginal quantiles and a small number of joint probabilities. The analyst receives that information, treating it as a data set D with which to update his/her prior beliefs to obtain the posterior distribution for f(.). Theoretical properties of joint and marginal priors are derived and numerical illustrations to demonstrate our approach are given. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probability distribution models for daily rainfall data for an interior station of Brazil

Two stochastic models have been fitted to daily rainfall data for an interior station of Brazil. Of these two models, the results show a better fit to describe the data, by truncated negative probability model in comparison with Markov chain probability model. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is applied for significance for these models. © 1983 Springer-Verlag.

Analysis of culling probability in dairy buffalo using survival models

In order to contribute to the genetic breeding programs of buffaloes, this study aimed to determine the influence of environmental effects on the stayability (ST) of dairy female Murrah buffalo in the herd. Data from 1016 buffaloes were used. ST was defined as the ability of the female to remain in the herd for 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 years after the first calving. Environmental effects were studied by survival analysis, adjusted to the fixed effects of farm, year and season of birth, class of first-lactation milk yield and age at first calving. The data were analyzed using the LIFEREG procedure of the SAS program that fits parametric models to failure time data (culling or ST = 0), and estimates parameters by maximum likelihood estimation. Breeding farm, year of birth and first-lactation milk yield significantly influenced (P < 0.0001) the ST to the specific ages (1 to 6 years after the first calving). Buffaloes that were older at first calving presented higher probabilities of being culled 1 year after the first calving, without any effect on culling at older ages. Buffaloes with a higher milk yield at first calving presented a lower culling probability and remained for a longer period of time in the herd. The effects of breeding farm, year of birth and first-lactation milk yield should be included in models used for the analysis of ST in buffaloes. Copyright © The Animal Consortium 2010.

Cellular damages in the Allium cepa test system, caused by BTEX mixture prior and after biodegradation process

Petroleum and derivatives have been considered one of the main environmental contaminants. Among petroleum derivatives, the volatile organic compounds benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylene (BTEX) represent a major concern due to their toxicity and easy accumulation in groundwater. Biodegradation methods seem to be suitable tools for the clean-up of BTEX contaminants from groundwater. Genotoxic and mutagenic potential of BTEX prior and after biodegradation process was evaluated through analyses of chromosomal aberrations and MN test in meristematic and F 1 root cells using the Allium cepa test system. Seeds of A. cepa were germinated into five concentrations of BTEX, non-biodegraded and biodegraded, in ultra-pure water (negative control), in MMS 4×10 -4M (positive control) and in culture medium used in the biodegradation (blank biodegradation control). Results showed a significant frequency of both chromosomal and nuclear aberrations. The micronucleus (MN) frequency in meristematic cells was significant for most of tested samples. However, MN was not present in significant levels in the F 1 cells, suggesting that there was no permanent damage for the meristematic cell. The BTEX effects were significantly reduced in the biodegraded samples when compared to the respective non-biodegraded concentrations. Therefore, in this study, the biodegradation process showed to be a reliable and effective alternative to treat BTEX-contaminated waters. Based on our results and available data, the BTEX toxicity could also be related to a synergistic effect of its compounds. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Diabetic rats exercised prior to and during pregnancy: Maternal reproductive outcome, biochemical profile, and frequency of fetal anomalies

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of exercise prior to or during pregnancy on maternal reproductive outcome, biochemical profile, and on fetal anomaly frequency in a rat pregnancy model utilizing chemically induced diabetes. Wistar rats (minimum n = 11 animals/group) were randomly assigned the following groups: group 1 (G1), sedentary, nondiabetic; G2, nondiabetic, exercised during pregnancy; G3, nondiabetic, exercised prior to and during pregnancy; G4, sedentary, diabetic; G5, diabetic, exercised during pregnancy; and G6, diabetic, exercised prior to and during pregnancy. A swimming program was utilized for moderate exercise. On day 21 of pregnancy, all rats were anesthetized to obtain blood for biochemical measurements. The gravid uterus was weighed with its contents, and the fetuses were analyzed. The nondiabetic rats exercised prior to pregnancy presented a reduced maternal weight gain. Besides, G2 and G3 groups showed decreased fetal weights at term pregnancy, indicating slight intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR). In the diabetic dams, the swimming program did not have antihyperglycemic effects. The exercise applied only during pregnancy caused severe IUGR, as confirmed by reduced fetal weight mean, fetal weight classification, and ossification sites. Nevertheless, exercise was not a teratogenic factor and improved the rats' lipid profiles, demonstrating that the exercise presented possible benefits, but there are also risks prior and during pregnancy, especially in diabetic pregnant women. © The Author(s) 2012.

The Predominance of Alternatively Activated Macrophages Following Challenge with Cell Wall Peptide-Polysaccharide After Prior Infection with Sporothrix schenckii

Sporotrichosis is a subcutaneous mycosis that is caused by the dimorphic fungus Sporothrix schenckii. This disease generally occurs within the skin and subcutaneous tissues, causing lesions that can spread through adjacent lymphatic vessels and sometimes leading to systemic diseases in immunocompromised patients. Macrophages are crucial for proper immune responses against a variety of pathogens. Furthermore, macrophages can play different roles in response to different microorganisms and forms of activation, and they can be divided into classic or alternatively activated populations, as also known as M1 and M2 macrophages. M1 cells can lead to tissue injury and contribute to pathogenesis, whereas M2 cells promote angiogenesis, tissue remodeling, and repair. The aim of this study was to investigate the roles of M1 and M2 macrophages in a sporotrichosis model. Toward this end, we performed phenotyping of peritoneal exudate cells and evaluated the concomitant production of several immunomediators, including IL-12, IL-10, TGF-β, nitric oxide, and arginase-I activity, which were stimulated ex vivo with cell wall peptide-polysaccharide. Our results showed the predominance of the M2 macrophage population, indicated by peaks of arginase-I activity as well as IL-10 and TGF-β production during the 6th and 8th weeks after infection. These results were consistent with cellular phenotyping that revealed increases in CD206-positive cells over this period. This is the first report of the participation of M2 macrophages in sporotrichosis infections. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

Delineamentos ótimos para experimentos farmacocinéticos

Pós-graduação em Biometria - IBB

Delineamentos D-ótimos para os modelos de Michaelis-Menten e de Hill

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)