Uncertainties in the prediction of spatial variability of soil CO2 emissions and related properties

A emissão de CO2 do solo apresenta alta variabilidade espacial, devido à grande dependência espacial observada nas propriedades do solo que a influenciam. Neste estudo, objetivou-se: caracterizar e relacionar a variabilidade espacial da respiração do solo e propriedades relacionadas; avaliar a acurácia dos resultados fornecidos pelo método da krigagem ordinária e simulação sequencial gaussiana; e avaliar a incerteza na predição da variabilidade espacial da emissão de CO2 do solo e demais propriedades utilizando a simulação sequencial gaussiana. O estudo foi conduzido em uma malha amostral irregular com 141 pontos, instalada sobre a cultura de cana-de-açúcar. Nesses pontos foram avaliados a emissão de CO2 do solo, a temperatura do solo, a porosidade livre de água, o teor de matéria orgânica e a densidade do solo. Todas as variáveis apresentaram estrutura de dependência espacial. A emissão de CO2 do solo mostrou correlações positivas com a matéria orgânica (r = 0,25, p < 0,05) e a porosidade livre de água (r = 0,27, p <0,01) e negativa com a densidade do solo (r = -0,41, p < 0,01). No entanto, quando os valores estimados espacialmente (N=8833) são considerados, a porosidade livre de água passa a ser a principal variável responsável pelas características espaciais da respiração do solo, apresentando correlação de 0,26 (p < 0,01). As simulações individuais propiciaram, para todas as variáveis analisadas, melhor reprodução das funções de distribuição acumuladas e dos variogramas, em comparação à krigagem e estimativa E-type. As maiores incertezas na predição da emissão de CO2 estiveram associadas às regiões da área estudada com maiores valores observados e estimados, produzindo estimativas, ao longo do período estudado, de 0,18 a 1,85 t CO2 ha-1, dependendo dos diferentes cenários simulados. O conhecimento das incertezas gerado por meio dos diferentes cenários de estimativa pode ser incluído em inventários de gases do efeito estufa, resultando em estimativas mais conservadoras do potencial de emissão desses gases.

Genetic evaluation of the probability of pregnancy at 14 months for Nellore heifers

To estimate the heritability for the probability that yearling heifers would become pregnant, we analyzed the records of 11,487 Nellore animals that participated in breeding seasons at three farms in the Brazilian states of São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul. All heifers were exposed to a bull at the age of about 14 mo. The probability of pregnancy was analyzed as a categorical trait, with a value of 1 (success) assigned to heifers that were diagnosed pregnant by rectal palpation about 60 d after the end of the breeding season of 90 d and a value of 0 (failure) assigned to those that were not pregnant at that time. The estimate of heritability, obtained by Method 9, was 0.57 with standard error of 0.01. The EPD was predicted using a maximum a posteriori threshold method and was expressed as deviations from 50% probability. The range in EPD was -24.50 to 24.55%, with a mean of 0.78% and a SD of 7.46%. We conclude that EPD for probability of pregnancy can be used to select heifers with a higher probability of being fertile. However, it is mainly recommended for the selection of bulls for the production of precocious daughters because the accuracy of prediction is higher for bulls, depending on their number of daughters.

The STATFLUX code: a statistical method for calculation of flow and set of parameters, based on the Multiple-Compartment Biokinetical Model

The code STATFLUX, implementing a new and simple statistical procedure for the calculation of transfer coefficients in radionuclide transport to animals and plants, is proposed. The method is based on the general multiple-compartment model, which uses a system of linear equations involving geometrical volume considerations. Flow parameters were estimated by employing two different least-squares procedures: Derivative and Gauss-Marquardt methods, with the available experimental data of radionuclide concentrations as the input functions of time. The solution of the inverse problem, which relates a given set of flow parameter with the time evolution of concentration functions, is achieved via a Monte Carlo Simulation procedure.Program summaryTitle of program: STATFLUXCatalogue identifier: ADYS_v1_0Program summary URL: http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/ADYS_v1_0Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University of Belfast, N. IrelandLicensing provisions: noneComputer for which the program is designed and others on which it has been tested: Micro-computer with Intel Pentium III, 3.0 GHzInstallation: Laboratory of Linear Accelerator, Department of Experimental Physics, University of São Paulo, BrazilOperating system: Windows 2000 and Windows XPProgramming language used: Fortran-77 as implemented in Microsoft Fortran 4.0. NOTE: Microsoft Fortran includes non-standard features which are used in this program. Standard Fortran compilers such as, g77, f77, ifort and NAG95, are not able to compile the code and therefore it has not been possible for the CPC Program Library to test the program.Memory, required to execute with typical data: 8 Mbytes of RAM memory and 100 MB of Hard disk memoryNo. of bits in a word: 16No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 6912No. of bytes in distributed Program, including test data, etc.: 229 541Distribution format: tar.gzNature of the physical problem: the investigation of transport mechanisms for radioactive substances, through environmental pathways, is very important for radiological protection of populations. One such pathway, associated with the food chain, is the grass-animal-man sequence. The distribution of trace elements in humans and laboratory animals has been intensively studied over the past 60 years [R.C. Pendlenton, C.W. Mays, R.D. Lloyd, A.L. Brooks, Differential accumulation of iodine-131 from local fallout in people and milk, Health Phys. 9 (1963) 1253-1262]. In addition, investigations on the incidence of cancer in humans, and a possible causal relationship to radioactive fallout, have been undertaken [E.S. Weiss, M.L. Rallison, W.T. London, W.T. Carlyle Thompson, Thyroid nodularity in southwestern Utah school children exposed to fallout radiation, Amer. J. Public Health 61 (1971) 241-249; M.L. Rallison, B.M. Dobyns, F.R. Keating, J.E. Rall, F.H. Tyler, Thyroid diseases in children, Amer. J. Med. 56 (1974) 457-463; J.L. Lyon, M.R. Klauber, J.W. Gardner, K.S. Udall, Childhood leukemia associated with fallout from nuclear testing, N. Engl. J. Med. 300 (1979) 397-402]. From the pathways of entry of radionuclides in the human (or animal) body, ingestion is the most important because it is closely related to life-long alimentary (or dietary) habits. Those radionuclides which are able to enter the living cells by either metabolic or other processes give rise to localized doses which can be very high. The evaluation of these internally localized doses is of paramount importance for the assessment of radiobiological risks and radiological protection. The time behavior of trace concentration in organs is the principal input for prediction of internal doses after acute or chronic exposure. The General Multiple-Compartment Model (GMCM) is the powerful and more accepted method for biokinetical studies, which allows the calculation of concentration of trace elements in organs as a function of time, when the flow parameters of the model are known. However, few biokinetics data exist in the literature, and the determination of flow and transfer parameters by statistical fitting for each system is an open problem.Restriction on the complexity of the problem: This version of the code works with the constant volume approximation, which is valid for many situations where the biological half-live of a trace is lower than the volume rise time. Another restriction is related to the central flux model. The model considered in the code assumes that exist one central compartment (e.g., blood), that connect the flow with all compartments, and the flow between other compartments is not included.Typical running time: Depends on the choice for calculations. Using the Derivative Method the time is very short (a few minutes) for any number of compartments considered. When the Gauss-Marquardt iterative method is used the calculation time can be approximately 5-6 hours when similar to 15 compartments are considered. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A new method for extending the range of conductive polymer sensors for contact force

This paper describes a technique for extending the force range of thin conductive polymer force sensors used for measuring contact force. These sensors are conventionally used for measuring force by changing electrical resistance when they are compressed. The new method involves measuring change in electrical resistance when the flexible sensor, which is sensitive to both compression and bending, is sandwiched between two layers of spring steel, and the structure is supported on a thin metal ring. When external force is applied, the stiffened sensor inside the spring steel is deformed within the annular center of the ring, causing the sensor to bend in proportion to the applied force. This method effectively increases the usable force range, while adding little in the way of thickness and weight. Average error for loads between 10 N and 100 N was 2.2 N (SD = 1.7) for a conventional conductive polymer sensor, and 0.9 N (SD = 0.4) using the new approach. Although this method permits measurement of greater loads with an error less than 1 N, it is limited since the modified sensor is insensitive to loads less than 5 N. These modified sensors are nevertheless useful for directly measuring normal force applied against handles and tools and other situations involving forceful manual work activities, such as grasp, push, pull, or press that could not otherwise be measured in actual work situations.

Screening Brazilian C gasoline quality: Application of the SIMCA chemometric method to gas chromatographic data

A total of 2400 samples of commercial Brazilian C gasoline were collected over a 6-month period from different gas stations in the São Paulo state, Brazil, and analysed with respect to 12 physicochemical parameters according to regulation 309 of the Brazilian Government Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels Agency (ANP). The percentages (v/v) of hydrocarbons (olefins, aromatics and saturated) were also determined. Hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) was employed to select 150 representative samples that exhibited least similarity on the basis of their physicochemical parameters and hydrocarbon compositions. The chromatographic profiles of the selected samples were measured by gas chromatography with flame ionisation detection and analysed using soft independent modelling of class analogy (SIMCA) method in order to create a classification scheme to identify conform gasolines according to ANP 309 regulation. Following the optimisation of the SIMCA algorithm, it was possible to classify correctly 96% of the commercial gasoline samples present in the training set of 100. In order to check the quality of the model, an external group of 50 gasoline samples (the prediction set) were analysed and the developed SIMCA model classified 94% of these correctly. The developed chemometric method is recommended for screening commercial gasoline quality and detection of potential adulteration. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting body and carcass characteristics of 2 broiler chicken strains using support vector regression and neural network models

As a new modeling method, support vector regression (SVR) has been regarded as the state-of-the-art technique for regression and approximation. In this study, the SVR models had been introduced and developed to predict body and carcass-related characteristics of 2 strains of broiler chicken. To evaluate the prediction ability of SVR models, we compared their performance with that of neural network (NN) models. Evaluation of the prediction accuracy of models was based on the R-2, MS error, and bias. The variables of interest as model output were BW, empty BW, carcass, breast, drumstick, thigh, and wing weight in 2 strains of Ross and Cobb chickens based on intake dietary nutrients, including ME (kcal/bird per week), CP, TSAA, and Lys, all as grams per bird per week. A data set composed of 64 measurements taken from each strain were used for this analysis, where 44 data lines were used for model training, whereas the remaining 20 lines were used to test the created models. The results of this study revealed that it is possible to satisfactorily estimate the BW and carcass parts of the broiler chickens via their dietary nutrient intake. Through statistical criteria used to evaluate the performance of the SVR and NN models, the overall results demonstrate that the discussed models can be effective for accurate prediction of the body and carcass-related characteristics investigated here. However, the SVR method achieved better accuracy and generalization than the NN method. This indicates that the new data mining technique (SVR model) can be used as an alternative modeling tool for NN models. However, further reevaluation of this algorithm in the future is suggested.

Optimization of Radial Basis Function neural network employed for prediction of surface roughness in hard turning process using Taguchi's orthogonal arrays

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

A device to improve the Schleger and Turner method for sweating rate measurements

The objective of this study was to test a device developed to improve the functionality, accuracy and precision of the original technique for sweating rate measurements proposed by Schleger and Turner [Schleger AV, Turner HG (1965) Aust J Agric Res 16:92-106]. A device was built for this purpose and tested against the original Schleger and Turner technique. Testing was performed by measuring sweating rates in an experiment involving six Mertolenga heifers subjected to four different thermal levels in a climatic chamber. The device exhibited no functional problems and the results obtained with its use were more consistent than with the Schleger and Turner technique. There was no difference in the reproducibility of the two techniques (same accuracy), but measurements performed with the new device had lower repeatability, corresponding to lower variability and, consequently, to higher precision. When utilizing this device, there is no need for physical contact between the operator and the animal to maintain the filter paper discs in position. This has important advantages: the animals stay quieter, and several animals can be evaluated simultaneously. This is a major advantage because it allows more measurements to be taken in a given period of time, increasing the precision of the observations and diminishing the error associated with temporal hiatus (e.g., the solar angle during field studies). The new device has higher functional versatility when taking measurements in large-scale studies (many animals) under field conditions. The results obtained in this study suggest that the technique using the device presented here could represent an advantageous alternative to the original technique described by Schleger and Turner.

Variational iterative method for scattering problems

A parameter-free variational iterative method is proposed for scattering problems. The present method yields results that are far better, in convergence, stability and precision, than any other momentum space method. Accurate result is obtained for the atomic exponential (Yukawa) potential with an estimated error of less than 1 in 1015 (1010) after some 13 (10) iterations.

Fourth-order method for solving the Navier-Stokes equations in a constricting channel

A fourth-order numerical method for solving the Navier-Stokes equations in streamfunction/vorticity formulation on a two-dimensional non-uniform orthogonal grid has been tested on the fluid flow in a constricted symmetric channel. The family of grids is generated algebraically using a conformal transformation followed by a non-uniform stretching of the mesh cells in which the shape of the channel boundary can vary from a smooth constriction to one which one possesses a very sharp but smooth corner. The generality of the grids allows the use of long channels upstream and downstream as well as having a refined grid near the sharp corner. Derivatives in the governing equations are replaced by fourth-order central differences and the vorticity is eliminated, either before or after the discretization, to form a wide difference molecule for the streamfunction. Extra boundary conditions, necessary for wide-molecule methods, are supplied by a procedure proposed by Henshaw et al. The ensuing set of non-linear equations is solved using Newton iteration. Results have been obtained for Reynolds numbers up to 250 for three constrictions, the first being smooth, the second having a moderately sharp corner and the third with a very sharp corner. Estimates of the error incurred show that the results are very accurate and substantially better than those of the corresponding second-order method. The observed order of the method has been shown to be close to four, demonstrating that the method is genuinely fourth-order. © 1977 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A barrier method for constrained nonlinear optimization using a modified Hopfield network

The ability of neural networks to realize some complex nonlinear function makes them attractive for system identification. This paper describes a novel barrier method using artificial neural networks to solve robust parameter estimation problems for nonlinear model with unknown-but-bounded errors and uncertainties. This problem can be represented by a typical constrained optimization problem. More specifically, a modified Hopfield network is developed and its internal parameters are computed using the valid-subspace technique. These parameters guarantee the network convergence to the equilibrium points. A solution for the robust estimation problem with unknown-but-bounded error corresponds to an equilibrium point of the network. Simulation results are presented as an illustration of the proposed approach.

A photogrammetric method for single image orientation and measurement

The aim of this paper is to present a photogrammetric method for determining the dimensions of flat surfaces, such as billboards, based on a single digital image. A mathematical model was adapted to generate linear equations for vertical and horizontal lines in the object space. These lines are identified and measured in the image and the rotation matrix is computed using an indirect method. The distance between the camera and the surface is measured using a lasermeter, providing the coordinates of the camera perspective center. Eccentricity of the lasermeter center related to the camera perspective center is modeled by three translations, which are computed using a calibration procedure. Some experiments were performed to test the proposed method and the achieved results are within a relative error of about 1 percent in areas and distances in the object space. This accuracy fulfills the requirements of the intended applications. © 2005 American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing.

Estimation of variance components and prediction of breeding values in rubber tree breeding using the REML/BLUP procedure

The present paper deals with estimation of variance components, prediction of breeding values and selection in a population of rubber tree [Hevea brasiliensis (Willd. ex Adr. de Juss.) Müell.-Arg.] from Rio Branco, State of Acre, Brazil. The REML/BLUP (restricted maximum likelihood/best linear unbiased prediction) procedure was applied. For this purpose, 37 rubber tree families were obtained and assessed in a randomized complete block design, with three unbalanced replications. The field trial was carried out at the Experimental Station of UNESP, located in Selvíria, State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. The quantitative traits evaluated were: girth (G), bark thickness (BT), number of latex vessel rings (NR), and plant height (PH). Given the unbalanced condition of the progeny test, the REML/BLUP procedure was used for estimation. The narrow-sense individual heritability estimates were 0.43 for G, 0.18 for BT, 0.01 for NR, and 0.51 for PH. Two selection strategies were adopted: one short-term (ST - selection intensity of 8.85%) and the other long-term (LT - selection intensity of 26.56%). For G, the estimated genetic gains in relation to the population average were 26.80% and 17.94%, respectively, according to the ST and LT strategies. The effective population sizes were 22.35 and 46.03, respectively. The LT and ST strategies maintained 45.80% and 28.24%, respectively, of the original genetic diversity represented in the progeny test. So, it can be inferred that this population has potential for both breeding and ex situ genetic conservation as a supplier of genetic material for advanced rubber tree breeding programs. Copyright by the Brazilian Society of Genetics.

Dynamic analysis of a new piezoelectric flextensional actuator using the J1-J4 optical interferometric method

Piezoelectric actuators are widely used in positioning systems which demand high resolution such as scanning microscopy, fast mirror scanners, vibration cancellation, cell manipulation, etc. In this work a piezoelectric flextensional actuator (PFA), designed with the topology optimization method, is experimentally characterized by the measurement of its nanometric displacements using a Michelson interferometer. Because this detection process is non-linear, adequate techniques must be applied to obtain a linear relationship between an output electrical signal and the induced optical phase shift. Ideally, the bias phase shift in the interferometer should remain constant, but in practice it suffers from fading. The J1-J4 spectral analysis method provides a linear and direct measurement of dynamic phase shift in a no-feedback and no-phase bias optical homodyne interferometer. PFA application such as micromanipulation in biotechnology demands fast and precise movements. So, in order to operate with arbitrary control signals the PFA must have frequency bandwidth of several kHz. However as the natural frequencies of the PFA are low, unwanted dynamics of the structure are often a problem, especially for scanning motion, but also if trajectories have to be followed with high velocities, because of the tracking error phenomenon. So the PFA must be designed in such a manner that the first mechanical resonance occurs far beyond this band. Thus it is important to know all the PFA resonance frequencies. In this work the linearity and frequency response of the PFA are evaluated up to 50 kHz using optical interferometry and the J1-J4 method.

Nasal width as a guide for the selection of maxillary complete denture anterior teeth in four racial groups

Purpose: Selecting artificial teeth for edentulous patients is difficult when pre-extraction records are not available. Various guidelines have been suggested for determining the width of the maxillary anterior denture teeth. This study was undertaken to evaluate the use of the nasal width as a guide for the selection of proper width maxillary anterior denture teeth in four racial groups of the Brazilian population. Materials and Methods: One hundred and sixty subjects (40 Whites, 40 Mulattos, 40 Blacks, and 40 Asians) were selected. Using a sliding caliper, the nasal width and the intercanine distance were measured. The Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient was used to determine the relationship between the above measurements. A prediction was made of the percentage of subjects of the White, Mulatto, Black, and Asian populations in which the selection error due to the clinical application of the method of the nasal width would be within 0 to 2 mm, within 2 to 4 mm, and greater than 4 mm. Results: The four racial groups showed a weak correlation between the intercanine distance and the nasal width. In 39.7% of the White, 55.7% of the Mulatto, 81.9% of the Black, and 48.2% of the Asian populations, errors greater than 4 mm would be present with the use of the nasal width. Conclusions: The correlation found between the intercanine distance and the nasal width was not high enough to be used as a predictive factor. The relationship between natural tooth width and artificial tooth width as predicted by the nasal width showed that the nasal width method is not accurate for all the studied groups. Copyright © 2006 by The American College of Prosthodontists.