35 resultados para Modelización estocástica


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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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In this paper we propose the achievement of an interdisciplinary activity evolving biology and mathematics knowledge with students of the third grade of high school about the population growth theme. The goal of this activity is to offer to the students a wider perception about the ways of population growth of different organisms from their home region, helping them to represent it through mathematics models. The formulation of the research problem is done from the theoretical and empirical data and the student is encouraged to behave in a participative and dialogic way in all stages of the activity. The mathematical modeling and the graphic representation of the population growth are made through the mathematical software Geogebra and we emphasize the qualitative analysis of the data from the biological and environmental education point of view.

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Water management has in the watershed plans an important tool to plan the territory and adjust the activities develop over it to the natural resources availability. The incorporation of uncertainty analysis associated with hydrological modelling predictions is a manner to simulate scenarios and work with chances and probabilities that certain events happens inside these plans. Using stochastic methods is possible to consider uncertainty from estimations and even model it. Stochastic methods developed considerably during the last 30 years, but its applications to real-world problems have been limited, and did not turn into routine in hydrology. This paper brings an overview from eminent hydrologists about this subject and discuss the Brazilian and Paulista situation in the scope of groundwater monitoring.

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Pós-graduação em Física - IFT

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The automobile industry shows relevance inside the Brazilian industrial scenario since it contributes with the development of a significant chain of supply, distributors, workshops, publicity agencies and insurance companies in the internal market, aside from being one of the five biggest worldwide market. Thereby, the federal government decreed in Dec, 17th 2012 by Law nº 12.715 the Inovar-Auto Program. As the Adjusted Present Value (APV) is highly recommended, although not yet widespread to public politics of tax reduction, this work intends to apply the APV method on the cash flow analysis of an automobile sector's company, which has recently installed in national territory and wants to rely with governmental incentives proposed by Inovar-Auto Program. The developed work evaluates the company's current cash flow stochastically from mathematical modeling of variables such as price, demand and interest rate through probability distributions with the assist of Crystal Ball software, a Microsoft Excel Add-in, generating different scenarios from Monte Carlo Simulation. As results probabilities situations have been evaluated until the end of the Inovar-Auto's conducted period, in 2017. Beside APV others indicator such as Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and payback period were estimated for the investment project. For APV a sampling distribution with only 0.057% of risk, IRR of 29% were obtained and estimated project payback period was 4.13 years