Modelagem auto-regressiva na previsão de demanda dos produtos de uma empresa do setor químico

Considering the high competitiveness in the industrial chemical sector, demand forecast is a relevant factor for decision-making. There is a need for tools capable of assisting in the analysis and definition of the forecast. In that sense, the objective is to generate the chemical industry forecast using an advanced forecasting model and thus verify the accuracy of the method. Because it is time series with seasonality, the model of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average - SARIMA generated reliable forecasts and acceding to the problem analyzed, thus enabling, through validation with real data improvements in the management and decision making of supply chain

Análise envoltória de dados combinada com a lógica fuzzy em problemas de avaliação de eficiência de máquinas de consumo: um estudo em empresa do segmento farmacêutico

The pharmaceutical industry was consolidated in Brazil in the 1930s, and since then has become increasingly competitive. Therefore the implementation of the Toyota Production System, which aims to lean production, has become common among companies in the segment. The main efficiency indicator currently used is the Overall Equipment Effectiveness (OEE). This paper intends to, using the fuzzy model DEA-BCC, analyze the efficiency of the production lines of a pharmaceutical company in the Paraíba Valley, compare the values obtained by the model with those calculated by the OEE, identify the most sensitive machines to variation in the data input and develop a ranking of effectiveness between the consumer machinery. After the development, it is shown that the accuracy of the relationship between the two methods is approximately 57% and the line considered the most effective by the Toyota Production System is not the same as the one found by this paper

Programação por metas e análise envoltória de dados na avaliação de unidades de produção global: uma aplicação em uma empresa do segmento químico

Considering the high competitivity in the market, the application of quantitative methods can assist in analyzing the efficiency of production facilities of areas of export and import processes of the chemical industry sector. In this sense, this work aims to apply the model GPDEA-BCC optimization in order to develop an analysis of the production units of this chemical industry. So, were chosen variables relevant to the process and elaborated a final comparison between the results obtained by the optimization tool and performance indexes provided by the company. These results indicated that some production units should be monitored more carefully because some of them had a low efficiency when analyzed with multi criteria

Aplicação do valor presente ajustado (APV) para avaliação do fluxo de caixa de uma empresa do setor automotivo no sistema inovar auto

The automobile industry shows relevance inside the Brazilian industrial scenario since it contributes with the development of a significant chain of supply, distributors, workshops, publicity agencies and insurance companies in the internal market, aside from being one of the five biggest worldwide market. Thereby, the federal government decreed in Dec, 17th 2012 by Law nº 12.715 the Inovar-Auto Program. As the Adjusted Present Value (APV) is highly recommended, although not yet widespread to public politics of tax reduction, this work intends to apply the APV method on the cash flow analysis of an automobile sector's company, which has recently installed in national territory and wants to rely with governmental incentives proposed by Inovar-Auto Program. The developed work evaluates the company's current cash flow stochastically from mathematical modeling of variables such as price, demand and interest rate through probability distributions with the assist of Crystal Ball software, a Microsoft Excel Add-in, generating different scenarios from Monte Carlo Simulation. As results probabilities situations have been evaluated until the end of the Inovar-Auto's conducted period, in 2017. Beside APV others indicator such as Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and payback period were estimated for the investment project. For APV a sampling distribution with only 0.057% of risk, IRR of 29% were obtained and estimated project payback period was 4.13 years

Reestruturação e automação de processos: caso de um processo da área de compras e suprimentos de uma empresa brasileira do setor de mídia

Innovation in the field of Information Technology (IT) have made companies evaluate their processes and activity of its supply chain to conform to this new reality. In the supply chain management, one of the tools that revolutionized the activities was the use of management information systems such as ERP tool. This system allows greater integration of data from multiple areas of the enterprise and beyond, giving more activities to processes and activities. This work aims to analyze the results and impacts of the restructuring of an equipment leasing process in a Brazilian media company and verify that the gains and improvements that were targeted in the initial design of this restructuring have been achieved. Also the risks identified with this change will be studied, the reactions of those involved in this process and the performance of the chain as a whole. To carry out this work was carried out a single case study with data collection in the assessed company and literature related to supply chain and information systems