Bayesian binary regression model: an application to in-hospital death after AMI prediction

Um modelo bayesiano de regressão binária é desenvolvido para predizer óbito hospitalar em pacientes acometidos por infarto agudo do miocárdio. Métodos de Monte Carlo via Cadeias de Markov (MCMC) são usados para fazer inferência e validação. Uma estratégia para construção de modelos, baseada no uso do fator de Bayes, é proposta e aspectos de validação são extensivamente discutidos neste artigo, incluindo a distribuição a posteriori para o índice de concordância e análise de resíduos. A determinação de fatores de risco, baseados em variáveis disponíveis na chegada do paciente ao hospital, é muito importante para a tomada de decisão sobre o curso do tratamento. O modelo identificado se revela fortemente confiável e acurado, com uma taxa de classificação correta de 88% e um índice de concordância de 83%.

Occurrence and significance of ovarian and follicular regression in cachara Pseudoplatystoma fasciatum (Linnaeus, 1766): a histology approach

Estudaram-se os processos de regressão ovariana e atresia folicular em cachara, Pseudoplatystoma fasciatum, mantida em cativeiro, na reprodução não induzida por hormônios. As características macro e microscópicas (diâmetro dos ovócitos e histologia) dos ovários foram descritas a cada 20 dias, em quatro estádios: na regressão inicial (Rg I - os primeiros 20 dias), na regressão intermediária (Rg II - do 21º ao 40º dia), na regressão final (Rg III - do 41º ao 80º dia) e na fase de recuperação ou de repouso II (R II - do 81º ao 150º dia). O experimento foi realizado do final de janeiro (verão-dias longos) a maio (outono-dias curtos). No início do experimento, as amostras apresentaram ovócitos com diâmetros que variaram de 437,5 a 1.187,5mm, sugerindo encontrarem-se nas fases perinucleolar, de maturação final e atrésicos. Aos 150 dias, os diâmetros atingiram os menores valores e pôde-se visualizar a zona radiata rompida e o vitelo reabsorvido. Concomitantemente, houve diminuição abrupta dos valores médios do índice gonadossomático, da temperatura da água, das horas de luz e de chuva. A involução gradual do longo processo foi dinâmica e complexa, afetando o êxito da desova (taxas de fertilização, de eclosão e de sobrevivência de larvas) e, conseqüentemente, o sistema produtivo.

Methods to verify parameter equality in nonlinear regression models

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Estimation of (co)variance components and genetic parameters for weights of red-winged tinamou using random regression models

Com este trabalho objetivou-se determinar parâmetros genéticos para peso corporal de perdizes em cativeiro. Foram utilizados modelos de regressão aleatória na análise dos dados considerando os efeitos genéticos aditivos diretos (AD) e de ambiente permanente de animal (AP) como aleatórios. As variâncias residuais foram modeladas utilizando-se funções de variância de ordem 5. A curva média da população foi ajustada por polinômios ortogonais de Legendre de ordem 6. Os efeitos genéticos aditivos diretos e de ambiente permanente de animal foram modelados utilizando-se polinômios de Legendre de segunda a nona ordem. Os melhores resultados foram obtidos pelos modelos de ordem 6 de ajuste para os efeitos genéticos aditivos diretos e de ordem 3 para os de ambiente permanente pelo Critério de Informação de Akaike e ordem 3 para ambos os efeitos pelos Critério de Informação Bayesiano de Schwartz e Teste de Razão de Verossimilhança. As herdabilidades estimadas variaram de 0,02 a 0,57. O primeiro autovalor respondeu por 94 e 90% da variação decorrente de efeitos aditivos diretos e de ambiente permanente, respectivamente. A seleção de perdizes para peso corporal é mais efetiva a partir de 112 dias de idade.

Interpolating EFGM for computing continuous and discontinuous electromagnetic fields

Purpose - This paper proposes an interpolating approach of the element-free Galerkin method (EFGM) coupled with a modified truncation scheme for solving Poisson's boundary value problems in domains involving material non-homogeneities. The suitability and efficiency of the proposed implementation are evaluated for a given set of test cases of electrostatic field in domains involving different material interfaces.Design/methodology/approach - the authors combined an interpolating approximation with a modified domain truncation scheme, which avoids additional techniques for enforcing the Dirichlet boundary conditions and for dealing with material interfaces usually employed in meshfree formulations.Findings - the local electric potential and field distributions were correctly described as well as the global quantities like the total potency and resistance. Since, the treatment of the material interfaces becomes practically the same for both the finite element method (FEM) and the proposed EFGM, FEM-oriented programs can, thus, be easily extended to provide EFGM approximations.Research limitations/implications - the robustness of the proposed formulation became evident from the error analyses of the local and global variables, including in the case of high-material discontinuity.Practical implications - the proposed approach has shown to be as robust as linear FEM. Thus, it becomes an attractive alternative, also because it avoids the use of additional techniques to deal with boundary/interface conditions commonly employed in meshfree formulations.Originality/value - This paper reintroduces the domain truncation in the EFGM context, but by using a set of interpolating shape functions the authors avoided the use of Lagrange multipliers as well Mathematics in Engineering high-material discontinuity.

Buffalos milk yield analysis using random regression models

Data comprising 1,719 milk yield records from 357 females (predominantly Murrah breed), daughters of 110 sires, with births from 1974 to 2004, obtained from the Programa de Melhoramento Genetic de Bubalinos (PROMEBUL) and from records of EMBRAPA Amazonia Oriental - EAO herd, located in Belem, Para, Brazil, were used to compare random regression models for estimating variance components and predicting breeding values of the sires. The data were analyzed by different models using the Legendre's polynomial functions from second to fourth orders. The random regression models included the effects of herd-year, month of parity date of the control; regression coefficients for age of females (in order to describe the fixed part of the lactation curve) and random regression coefficients related to the direct genetic and permanent environment effects. The comparisons among the models were based on the Akaike Infromation Criterion. The random effects regression model using third order Legendre's polynomials with four classes of the environmental effect were the one that best described the additive genetic variation in milk yield. The heritability estimates varied from 0.08 to 0.40. The genetic correlation between milk yields in younger ages was close to the unit, but in older ages it was low.

A singular approach to discontinuous vector fields on the plane

In this paper we deal with discontinuous vector fields on R-2 and we prove that the analysis of their local behavior around a typical singularity can be treated via singular perturbation. The regularization process developed by Sotomayor and Teixeira is crucial for the development of this work. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Regularization of discontinuous vector fields on R-3 via singular perturbation

Singular perturbations problems in dimension three which are approximations of discontinuous vector fields are studied in this paper. The main result states that the regularization process developed by Sotomayor and Teixeira produces a singular problem for which the discontinuous set is a center manifold. Moreover, the definition of' sliding vector field coincides with the reduced problem of the corresponding singular problem for a class of vector fields.

A partial least squares and principal component regression study of quinone compounds with trypanocidal activity

A quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) study of 19 quinone compounds with trypanocidal activity was performed by Partial Least Squares (PLS) and Principal Component Regression (PCR) methods with the use of leave-one-out crossvalidation procedure to build the regression models. The trypanocidal activity of the compounds is related to their first cathodic potential (Ep(c1)). The regression PLS and PCR models built in this study were also used to predict the Ep(c1) of six new quinone compounds. The PLS model was built with three principal components that described 96.50% of the total variance and present Q(2) = 0.83 and R-2 = 0.90. The results obtained with the PCR model were similar to those obtained with the PLS model. The PCR model was also built with three principal components that described 96.67% of the total variance with Q(2) = 0.83 and R-2 = 0.90. The most important descriptors for our PLS and PCR models were HOMO-1 (energy of the molecular orbital below HOMO), Q4 (atomic charge at position 4), MAXDN (maximal electrotopological negative difference), and HYF (hydrophilicity index).

A partial least squares regression study with antioxidant flavonoid compounds

The quantitative structure-activity relationship of a set of 19 flavonoid compounds presenting antioxidant activity was studied by means of PLS (Partial Least Squares) regression. The optimization of the structures and calculation of electronic properties were done by using the semiempirical method AMI. A reliable model (r(2) = 0.806 and q(2) = 0.730) was obtained and from this model it was possible to consider some aspects of the structure of the flavonoid compounds studied that are related with their free radical scavenging ability. The quality of the PLS model obtained in this work indicates that it can be used in order to design new flavonoid compounds that present ability to scavenge free radicals.

The Geometric Birnbaum-Saunders regression model with cure rate

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)