37 resultados para Cohorts


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There are strong uncertainties regarding LAI dynamics in forest ecosystems in response to climate change. While empirical growth & yield models (G&YMs) provide good estimations of tree growth at the stand level on a yearly to decennial scale, process-based models (PBMs) use LAI dynamics as a key variable for enabling the accurate prediction of tree growth over short time scales. Bridging the gap between PBMs and G&YMs could improve the prediction of forest growth and, therefore, carbon, water and nutrient fluxes by combining modeling approaches at the stand level.Our study aimed to estimate monthly changes of leaf area in response to climate variations from sparse measurements of foliage area and biomass. A leaf population probabilistic model (SLCD) was designed to simulate foliage renewal. The leaf population was distributed in monthly cohorts, and the total population size was limited depending on forest age and productivity. Foliage dynamics were driven by a foliation function and the probabilities ruling leaf aging or fall. Their formulation depends on the forest environment.The model was applied to three tree species growing under contrasting climates and soil types. In tropical Brazilian evergreen broadleaf eucalypt plantations, the phenology was described using 8 parameters. A multi-objective evolutionary algorithm method (MOEA) was used to fit the model parameters on litterfall and LAI data over an entire stand rotation. Field measurements from a second eucalypt stand were used to validate the model. Seasonal LAI changes were accurately rendered for both sites (R-2 = 0.898 adjustment, R-2 = 0.698 validation). Litterfall production was correctly simulated (R-2 = 0.562, R-2 = 0.4018 validation) and may be improved by using additional validation data in future work. In two French temperate deciduous forests (beech and oak), we adapted phenological sub-modules of the CASTANEA model to simulate canopy dynamics, and SLCD was validated using LAI measurements. The phenological patterns were simulated with good accuracy in the two cases studied. However, IA/max was not accurately simulated in the beech forest, and further improvement is required.Our probabilistic approach is expected to contribute to improving predictions of LAI dynamics. The model formalism is general and suitable to broadleaf forests for a large range of ecological conditions. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Temperament in cattle is defined as the fear-related behavioral responses when exposed to human handling. Our group evaluates cattle temperament using 1) chute score on a 1 to 5 scale that increases according to excitable behavior during restraint in a squeeze chute, 2) exit velocity (speed of an animal exiting the squeeze chute), 3) exit score (dividing cattle according to exit velocity into quintiles using a 1 to 5 scale where 1 = cattle in the slowest quintile and 5 = cattle in the fastest quintile), and 4) temperament score (average of chute and exit scores). Subsequently, cattle are assigned a temperament type of adequate temperament (ADQ; temperament score <= 3) or excitable temperament (EXC; temperament score > 3). To assess the impacts of temperament on various beef production systems, our group associated these evaluation criteria with productive, reproductive, and health characteristics of Bos taurus and Bos indicus-influenced cattle. As expected, EXC cattle had greater plasma cortisol vs. ADQ cattle during handling, independent of breed type (B. indicus x B. taurus, P < 0.01; B. taurus, P < 0.01; B. indicus, P = 0.04) or age (cows, P < 0.01; heifers or steers, P < 0.01). In regards to reproduction, EXC females had reduced annual pregnancy rates vs. ADQ cohorts across breed types (B. taurus, P = 0.03; B. indicus, P = 0.05). Moreover, B. taurus EXC cows also had decreased calving rate (P = 0.04), weaning rate (P = 0.09), and kilograms of calf weaned/cow exposed to breeding (P = 0.08) vs. ADQ cohorts. In regards to feedlot cattle, B. indicus EXC steers had reduced ADG (P = 0.02) and G:F (P = 0.03) during a 109-d finishing period compared with ADQ cohorts. Bos taurus EXC cattle had reduced weaning BW (P = 0.04), greater acute-phase protein response on feedlot entry (P <= 0.05), impaired feedlot receiving ADG (P = 0.05), and reduced carcass weight (P = 0.07) vs. ADQ cohorts. Acclimating B. indicus x B. taurus or B. taurus heifers to human handling improved temperament (P <= 0.02), reduced plasma cortisol (P < 0.01), and hastened puberty attainment (P <= 0.02). However, no benefits were observed when mature cows or feeder cattle were acclimated to human handling. In conclusion, temperament impacts productive, reproductive, and health characteristics of beef cattle independent of breed type. Hence, strategies to improve herd temperament are imperative for optimal production efficiency of beef operations based on B. taurus and B. indicus-influenced cattle.

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The arterial hypertension is a chronic disease, which can be controlled by changing the way of life, as well as by drug treatment, which demand specific Health Care sequence. The lack of adherence to sequence/treatment is one of the main obstacles the disease control. Characterize and analyze the profile of Health Care usage by a 192 patient cohort diagnosed with arterial hypertension in 1995, between the period of 2001 – 2005 and 2006 – 2010. It is a longitudinal study, retrospective and descriptive developed on School Health Center(SHC) which belongs to School of Medicine Botucatu –UNESP, in continuity of the previous research which has analyzed the sequence of the referred sample between the period of 1995 – 1999. The database was obtained from the patients records by using structured adapted forms appointed in the previous study phase. In the case there were transfers to other Health Care facilities, the database was obtained by the records either, while the patients attended the CSE. The database was analyzed by means of descriptive statistics. Predominated the patients in the age from 50 – 69 (47,9%), whites (93,2%), female (56,7%) with low level of education (72,7%). In the period of 2001 - 2005, 76 (39,5%) of the patients remained under sequence, and that 44 (22,9%) belonged to adherence group (GAD), 17 belonged to abandonment/adherent group (GAB/GAD) and 15 to the abandonment group (GAB), groups which were already identified by the study which has analyzed the period of 1995 – 1999. At the end of the third period of the sample sequence (2006 – 2010), 60 (31,2%) of the patients kept under medical sequence. The cohort’s mortality rate in the period reached 15,1% and 21,9% were transferred to other Municipal Health Care facilities. We conclude that the Health Care service usage by the 192 sample’s integrants kept the same model already identified in the previous analysis... (Complete abstract click electronic access below)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)