Solving the Levins' paradox in the logistic model to the population growth

We introduce a new method to improve Markov maps by means of a Bayesian approach. The method starts from an initial map model, wherefrom a likelihood function is defined which is regulated by a temperature-like parameter. Then, the new constraints are added by the use of Bayes rule in the prior distribution. We applied the method to the logistic map of population growth of a single species. We show that the population size is limited for all ranges of parameters, allowing thus to overcome difficulties in interpretation of the concept of carrying capacity known as the Levins paradox. © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.

Bayesian analysis of random regression models using B-splines to model test-day milk yield of Holstein cattle in Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Genetic parameters for buffalo milk yield and milk quality traits using Bayesian inference

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Security constrained optimal active power flow via network model and interior point method

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The omega DD vertex in a sum rule approach

The study of charmonium dissociation in heavy ion collisions is generally performed in the framework of effective Lagrangians with meson exchange. Some studies are also developed with the intention of calculate form factors and coupling constants related with charmed and light mesons. These quantifies are important in the evaluation of charmonium cross sections. In this Letter we present a calculation of the omega DD vertex that is a possible interaction vertex in some meson-exchange models spread in the literature. We used the standard method of QCD sum rules in order to obtain the vertex form factor as a function of the transferred momentum. Our results are compatible with the value of this vertex form factor (at zero momentum transfer) obtained in the vector-meson dominance model. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamical collapse in a degenerate binary fermion mixture using a hydrodynamic model

We use a time-dependent dynamical hydrodynamic model to study a collapse in a degenerate fermion-fermion mixture ( DFFM) of different atoms. Due to a strong Pauli-blocking repulsion among identical spin-polarized fermions at short distances, there cannot be a collapse for repulsive interspecies fermion fermion interaction. However, there can be a collapse for a sufficiently attractive interspecies fermion-fermion interaction in a DFFM of different atoms. Using a variational analysis and numerical solution of the hydrodynamic model, we study different aspects of collapse in such a DFFM initiated by a jump in the interspecies fermion-fermion interaction ( scattering length) to a large negative ( attractive) value using a Feshbach resonance. Suggestion for experiments of collapse in a DFFM of distinct atoms is made.

A novel method for modeling the recoil in W boson events at hadron colliders

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Bayesian binary regression model: an application to in-hospital death after AMI prediction

Um modelo bayesiano de regressão binária é desenvolvido para predizer óbito hospitalar em pacientes acometidos por infarto agudo do miocárdio. Métodos de Monte Carlo via Cadeias de Markov (MCMC) são usados para fazer inferência e validação. Uma estratégia para construção de modelos, baseada no uso do fator de Bayes, é proposta e aspectos de validação são extensivamente discutidos neste artigo, incluindo a distribuição a posteriori para o índice de concordância e análise de resíduos. A determinação de fatores de risco, baseados em variáveis disponíveis na chegada do paciente ao hospital, é muito importante para a tomada de decisão sobre o curso do tratamento. O modelo identificado se revela fortemente confiável e acurado, com uma taxa de classificação correta de 88% e um índice de concordância de 83%.

Comparative investigation of the cleavage step in the synthesis of model peptide resins: Implications for N-alpha-9-fluorenylmethyloxycarbonyl-solid phase peptide synthesis

Based on our studies of the stability of model peptide-resin linkage in acid media, we previously proposed a rule for resin selection and a final cleavage protocol applicable to the N-alpha-tert-butyloxycarbonyl (Boc)-peptide synthesis strategy. We found that incorrect choices resulted in decreases in the final synthesis yield, which is highly dependent on the peptide sequence, of as high as 30%. The present paper continues along this line of research but examines the N-alpha-9-fluorenylmethyloxycarbonyl (Fmoc)-synthesis strategy. The vasoactive peptide angiotensin II (All, DRVYIHPF) and its [Gly(8)]-All analogue were selected as model peptide resins. Variations in parameters such as the type of spacer group (linker) between the peptide backbone and the resin, as well as in the final acid cleavage protocol, were evaluated. The same methodology employed for the Boc strategy was used in order to establish rules for selection of the most appropriate linker-resin conjugate or of the peptide cleavage method, depending on the sequence to be assembled. The results obtained after treatment with four cleavage solutions and with four types of linker groups indicate that, irrespective of the circumstance, it is not possible to achieve complete removal of the peptide chains from the resin. Moreover, the Phe-attaching peptide at the C-terminal yielded far less cleavage (50-60%.) than that observed with the Gly-bearing sequences at the same position (70-90%). Lastly, the fastest cleavage occurred with reagent K acid treatment and when the peptide was attached to the Wang resin.

The STATFLUX code: a statistical method for calculation of flow and set of parameters, based on the Multiple-Compartment Biokinetical Model

The code STATFLUX, implementing a new and simple statistical procedure for the calculation of transfer coefficients in radionuclide transport to animals and plants, is proposed. The method is based on the general multiple-compartment model, which uses a system of linear equations involving geometrical volume considerations. Flow parameters were estimated by employing two different least-squares procedures: Derivative and Gauss-Marquardt methods, with the available experimental data of radionuclide concentrations as the input functions of time. The solution of the inverse problem, which relates a given set of flow parameter with the time evolution of concentration functions, is achieved via a Monte Carlo Simulation procedure.Program summaryTitle of program: STATFLUXCatalogue identifier: ADYS_v1_0Program summary URL: http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/ADYS_v1_0Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University of Belfast, N. IrelandLicensing provisions: noneComputer for which the program is designed and others on which it has been tested: Micro-computer with Intel Pentium III, 3.0 GHzInstallation: Laboratory of Linear Accelerator, Department of Experimental Physics, University of São Paulo, BrazilOperating system: Windows 2000 and Windows XPProgramming language used: Fortran-77 as implemented in Microsoft Fortran 4.0. NOTE: Microsoft Fortran includes non-standard features which are used in this program. Standard Fortran compilers such as, g77, f77, ifort and NAG95, are not able to compile the code and therefore it has not been possible for the CPC Program Library to test the program.Memory, required to execute with typical data: 8 Mbytes of RAM memory and 100 MB of Hard disk memoryNo. of bits in a word: 16No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 6912No. of bytes in distributed Program, including test data, etc.: 229 541Distribution format: tar.gzNature of the physical problem: the investigation of transport mechanisms for radioactive substances, through environmental pathways, is very important for radiological protection of populations. One such pathway, associated with the food chain, is the grass-animal-man sequence. The distribution of trace elements in humans and laboratory animals has been intensively studied over the past 60 years [R.C. Pendlenton, C.W. Mays, R.D. Lloyd, A.L. Brooks, Differential accumulation of iodine-131 from local fallout in people and milk, Health Phys. 9 (1963) 1253-1262]. In addition, investigations on the incidence of cancer in humans, and a possible causal relationship to radioactive fallout, have been undertaken [E.S. Weiss, M.L. Rallison, W.T. London, W.T. Carlyle Thompson, Thyroid nodularity in southwestern Utah school children exposed to fallout radiation, Amer. J. Public Health 61 (1971) 241-249; M.L. Rallison, B.M. Dobyns, F.R. Keating, J.E. Rall, F.H. Tyler, Thyroid diseases in children, Amer. J. Med. 56 (1974) 457-463; J.L. Lyon, M.R. Klauber, J.W. Gardner, K.S. Udall, Childhood leukemia associated with fallout from nuclear testing, N. Engl. J. Med. 300 (1979) 397-402]. From the pathways of entry of radionuclides in the human (or animal) body, ingestion is the most important because it is closely related to life-long alimentary (or dietary) habits. Those radionuclides which are able to enter the living cells by either metabolic or other processes give rise to localized doses which can be very high. The evaluation of these internally localized doses is of paramount importance for the assessment of radiobiological risks and radiological protection. The time behavior of trace concentration in organs is the principal input for prediction of internal doses after acute or chronic exposure. The General Multiple-Compartment Model (GMCM) is the powerful and more accepted method for biokinetical studies, which allows the calculation of concentration of trace elements in organs as a function of time, when the flow parameters of the model are known. However, few biokinetics data exist in the literature, and the determination of flow and transfer parameters by statistical fitting for each system is an open problem.Restriction on the complexity of the problem: This version of the code works with the constant volume approximation, which is valid for many situations where the biological half-live of a trace is lower than the volume rise time. Another restriction is related to the central flux model. The model considered in the code assumes that exist one central compartment (e.g., blood), that connect the flow with all compartments, and the flow between other compartments is not included.Typical running time: Depends on the choice for calculations. Using the Derivative Method the time is very short (a few minutes) for any number of compartments considered. When the Gauss-Marquardt iterative method is used the calculation time can be approximately 5-6 hours when similar to 15 compartments are considered. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A SIMPLE METHOD FOR DETERMINING LOCATION OF FORAGING ANT NESTS USING LEAF-CUTTING ANTS AS A MODEL

In many situations, it is difficult to evaluate the location of nests of ants, especially in tropical systems, or to determine which trail system corresponds with which nest, as in the case of high-density populations of leaf-cutting ants, Atta spp. Fragments of colored drinking straws coated with an attractant, generally vegetable oil and/or a starchy carbohydrate, are carried by ants and following removal of the attractant are deposited in middens, allowing determination of the origin of foraging workers.

Drude's model calculation rule on electrical transport in Sb-doped SnO2 thin films, deposited via sol-gel

The evaluation of free carrier concentration based on Drude's theory can be performed by the use of optical transmittance in the range 800-2000 nm (near infrared) for Sb-doped SnO2 thin films. In this article, we estimate the free carrier concentration for these films, which are deposited via sol-gel dip-coating. At approximately 900 mn, there is a separation among transmittance curves of doped and undoped samples. The plasma resonance phenomena approach leads to free carrier concentration of about 5 x 1020 cm(-3). The increase in the Sb concentration increases the film conductivity; however, the magnitude of measured resistivity is still very high. The only way to combine such a high free carrier concentration with a rather low conductivity is to have a very low mobility. It becomes possible when the crystallite dimensions are taken into account. We obtain grains with 5 nm of average size by estimating the grain size from X-ray diffraction data, and by using line broadening in the diffraction pattern. The low conductivity is due to very intense scattering at the grain boundary, which is created by the presence of a large amount of nanoscopic crystallites. Such a result is in accordance with X-ray photoemission spectroscopy data that pointed to Sb incorporation proportional to the free electron concentration, evaluated according to Drude's model. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Robust Bayesian analysis of heavy-tailed stochastic volatility models using scale mixtures of normal distributions

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Evaluation of in vitro gas production of roughages and their mixtures using the curves subtraction method

The in vitro gas production of four single roughages and their paired combinations (1:1 on dry matter basis) were evaluated. Two roughage samples (100 mg) per treatment were fermented with ruminal fluid during a 48 h incubation period. Total 48 h gas volumes of fermentation dry matter (DM), neutral detergent fiber (NDF) and soluble compounds in neutral detergent (NDS) were for sugarcane = 16.8, 11.2, 6.9 mL; sugarcane + corn silage = 20.1, 12.6, 9.1 mL; sugarcane + 60-day elephantgrass = 16.5, 17.6 mL; sugarcane + 180-day elephantgrass = 13.8, 8.2, 5.9 mL; corn silage = 18.8, 16.8, 4.7 mL; corn silage + 60-day elephantgrass = 16.3, 15.4, 2.4 mL; corn silage + 180-day elephantgrass = 16.1, 11.8, 4.2 mL; 60-day elephantgrass = 16.9, 19.0 mL and 180-day elephantgrass = fermented 10.7, 12.2 mL, respectively. The NDS gas production was not possible to estimate for sugarcane + 60-day elephantgrass, 60-day elephantgrass and 180-day elephantgrass. The present data shows that the curves subtraction method can be an option to evaluate the contribution of the soluble fractions in roughages to digestion kinetics. However, this method underestimates the NDS gas contribution when roughages are low in crude protein and soluble carbohydrates. It is advisable to directly apply the two-compartmental mathematical model to the digestion curves for roughage DM, when determining the NDS gas volume and the digestion rate. This method is more straightforward and accurate when compared to the curve subtraction method. Non-structural carbohydrates combined with fiber and protein promoted a positive associative effect in sugarcane + corn silage (50:50) mixture. Therefore, it can be concluded that the soluble fraction of roughages greatly contributes to gas production. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian outlier analysis in binary regression

We propose alternative approaches to analyze residuals in binary regression models based on random effect components. Our preferred model does not depend upon any tuning parameter, being completely automatic. Although the focus is mainly on accommodation of outliers, the proposed methodology is also able to detect them. Our approach consists of evaluating the posterior distribution of random effects included in the linear predictor. The evaluation of the posterior distributions of interest involves cumbersome integration, which is easily dealt with through stochastic simulation methods. We also discuss different specifications of prior distributions for the random effects. The potential of these strategies is compared in a real data set. The main finding is that the inclusion of extra variability accommodates the outliers, improving the adjustment of the model substantially, besides correctly indicating the possible outliers.