Viabilidade econômica da venda de energia elétrica em cogeração sob condições de risco: um estudo de caso

The availability of the electrical energy, in sufficient quantities and in competitive prices is a crucial factor to the economic development. The trade-in of the excess electrical energy produced in a system of cogeneration can be seen as an alternative to the creation of an additional source of revenues for ethanol power plants sector, besides contributing to the complementation of the Brazilian electrical headquarter with renewable sources. The objective of this study was to evaluate the economic feasibility of the implementation of a cogeneration electrical central using the excess of sugar cane bagasse and selling the excess of electrical energy with prices of the market. An ethanol power plant located in the state of Sao Paulo was used to this study. It was used the case study methodology, evaluating the potential of the investment under the viewpoint of the Net Present Value (NPV), Payback and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and complementing the results of the Accounting Results (AC). It was created three alternative scenarios to reflect the level of the risk of every studied situation: the most likely, an optimistic and a pessimistic, each one with its assumptions. The Monte Carlo Simulations was used to insert the elements of risk to each scenario. The results showed that the project is feasible in all NPV scenarios. And the Payback and IRR analysis confirmed these evidences. The valuation with the AR showed that the project is most risky at the pessimistic scenario, but is feasibly in the most likely and the optimistic scenarios. It was concluded that the project is economic viable. However, the economic viability shown in the results is based on the maintenance of the future prices on the levels of the historical prices used in the analysis.

Rentabilidade e Risco da Produção de Milho Safrinha Geneticamente Modificado e Convencional na Região de Guaíra/sp

The objective of this study was to dimension the economic risks and returns on adopters of genetically modified (GM) maize in one of the major corn producing regions of São Paulo state. We performed analysis of variation of the quantities and prices of insecticides used, productivity gains, and variation in the price differentials between GM maize and conventional hybrids seeds, according to account to the maize prices oscillation during the period studied. The net benefits methodology was used, in other words, the economic gains minus the costs of GM technology under risk conditions were calculated. The net benefits was calculated as a function of four critical variables: 1) GM maize productivity; 2) costs of pest control; 3) maize price; 4) GM seeds cost. The probability distribution functions of these critical variables were estimated and included in the net benefit equation. Using the Monte Carlo simulation methodology, the following indicator sets were estimated: central tendency measurements, variability in net benefits (total benefits minus total costs), sensitivity analysis of the net benefits in relation to the critical variables, and finally, a map of the risk to GM technology adopters. These indicators allow one to design economic scenarios associated with their probability of occurring. The results showed probability of 85% to positive gains to the farmers who adopted the transgenic maize seed cultivation. The variable with the greatest impact on the farmers' income was the reduction in productivity loss, that means, as higher is the maize productivity, higher will be the net income. The average gain was US$ 137,41 (R$ 2.45/US$)per hectare with the adoption of transgenic maize seed when compared to conventional maize seed.

Análise de rentabilidade e risco na produção de cana-de-açúcar na região norte do Estado de São Paulo sob dois tipos de arranjos contratuais

This study was to evaluate the profitability of land use for production of sugar cane in the São Paulo North Region, under risk conditions, from two views: the owner operator and the cash rental operator. The owner operators have higher levels of profitability comparing to cash rental owners, but with higher levels of risk. The land owners aversive to risk fits better to rent system, since the minimum return is greater than the profitability of owners operators. Moreover, if the producer is willing to production risk, the income may reach approximately 3 times that one obtained by the tenants.

Relação entre risco de erosão e distância de camalhões em estradas florestais

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A avaliação da efetividade de um modelo de intervenção breve (método BASICS) para o uso de risco de álcool em estudantes do ensino médio

Pós-graduação em Saúde Coletiva - FMB

Vigilância à saúde de recém-nascidos de risco: elaboração de protocolo de organização de serviços para redução do óbito infantil

Pós-graduação em Enfermagem (mestrado profissional) - FMB

Fluorose dentária em Araraquara-SP: prevalência, severidade e associação com fatores de risco

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Fatores de risco relacionados à perda de produtividade laboral e aumento dos custos ambulatoriais de pacientes atendidos por unidades básicas de saúde

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A ausência de nacionalidade como fator de risco à condição do cidadão estrangeiro: a questão jurídico-social dos apátridas como uma nova construção do pensamento jurídico internacional

Pós-graduação em Direito - FCHS

Estudo da viabilidade de implantação do INOVAR-AUTO utilizando o método do fluxo de caixa sob risco

The automobile industry has a growing importance in the Brazilian economic environment. The industry moves a huge chain that encompasses manufacturers, suppliers of raw materials, auto parts dealers, gas stations, insurance companies, repair shops, tire stores, media companies, advertising agencies, among others. Because of this importance in the current economic environment in Brazil, the federal government, through Law No. 12715 of 17 December 2012 established a Program for the Promotion of Innovation and Densification in the Productive Chain of Motor Vehicles called INOVAR-AUTO in order to support technological development, innovation, safety, environmental protection, energy efficiency and quality of cars, trucks, buses and auto parts. The specific purpose of this study, a simulation for discussion of the viability of the program implementation using the Monte Carlo Simulation combined with the Cash-Flow-at-Risk was performed. To this end, an exploratory and documentary literature on the subject was held as well as a case study in a automobile company of Japanese origin

Percepção de situações de risco ambiental na área rural de São José do Rio Pardo/SP

Pós-graduação em Geografia - IGCE

Importância da resposta auditiva de estado estável no diagnóstico da surdez em lactentes com risco para a deficiência auditiva: correlações com os achados do potencial evocado auditivo de tronco encefálico

Pós-graduação em Bases Gerais da Cirurgia - FMB

Fatores de risco nutricionais associados à mortalidade em pacientes com lesão renal aguda de acordo com os critérios do Acute Kidney Injury Network (AKIN)

Pós-graduação em Fisiopatologia em Clínica Médica - FMB

O uso da endoscopia para o rastreamento do câncer do trato aerodigestório alto em população de alto risco

Pós-graduação em Bases Gerais da Cirurgia - FMB

O efeito da contração muscular de membros superiores sobre o sistema nervoso autonômico de pessoas com fatores de risco cardiovascular

Pós-graduação em Desenvolvimento Humano e Tecnologias - IBRC