Implementação de um sistema Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment em uma grande rede de fast food por meio de um prestador de serviços logísticos

A gestão colaborativa é, atualmente, um elemento-chave no contexto da gestão da cadeia de suprimentos. Neste artigo, o tema é abordado mediante a análise de um caso real, em que uma grande rede mundial de fast-food e seu prestador de serviço logístico (PSL) trabalharam conjuntamente no Brasil em um projeto-piloto para a implementação de um collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment (CPFR). O trabalho faz uso de uma metodologia de pesquisa-ação e apresenta as principais variáveis que influenciaram o projeto, abordando os processos necessários para a implementação e os pontos que favorecem o CPFR. Com base no caso estudado, o trabalho apresenta um conjunto de propostas sobre o papel dos agentes da cadeia em projetos dessa natureza. A gestão da cadeia de suprimentos por intermédio da coordenação direta de um PSL também permite demonstrar as possibilidades e dificuldades desse sistema, contribuindo com a visão colaborativa na cadeia de suprimentos a partir da relação entre seus agentes.

Short-range order kinetics in alpha-AgZn for various states of post-deformation defect annealing after cold-rolling

Kinetics of short-range ordering (SRO) in Ag with 21, 23 and 28 at% Zn is investigated by residual resistometry during isochronal and isothermal heat treatment for different states of post-deformation defect annealing after cold-rolling to about 30 and 60% thickness reduction. Resistivity changes due to pure ordering can be separated from the as-measured total resistivity change which includes defect annealing. Although the initial state of SRO of the as-rolled material can be estimated to be comparably low, for as-rolled and partially annealed states by appropriate thermal treatment evolution of SRO is achieved which corresponds quite well to that of recrystallized samples. It is observed, however, that quenched-in surplus vacancies contribute considerably to the ordering process for the recrystallized state and that this contribution is still increased by the grain growth during the final stage of annealing. It therefore turns out that SRO-kinetics under equilibrium vacancy conditions can be better observed in a state of post-deformation annealing, for which deformation induced point defects are annealed-out, but a relatively high dislocation density is still present to act as a vacancy sink. Copyright (C) 1996 Acta Metallurgica Inc.

The use of simulation for forecasting the number of docks necessary in an expedition department

The simulation is a very powerful tool to develop more efficient systems, hence it is been widely used with the goal of productivity improvement. Its results, if compared with other methods, are not always optimum; however, if the experiment is rightly elaborated, its results will represent the real situation, enabling its use with a good level of reliability. This work used the simulation (through the ProModel (R) software) in order to study, understand, model and improve the expenditure system of an enterprise, with a premise of keeping the production-delivery flow considering quick, controlled and reliable conditions.

Joint rolling-horizon scheduling of materials processing and lot-sizing with sequence-dependent setups

A lot sizing and scheduling problem from a foundry is considered in which key materials are produced and then transformed into many products on a single machine. A mixed integer programming (MIP) model is developed, taking into account sequence-dependent setup costs and times, and then adapted for rolling horizon use. A relax-and-fix (RF) solution heuristic is proposed and computationally tested against a high-performance MIP solver. Three variants of local search are also developed to improve the RF method and tested. Finally the solutions are compared with those currently practiced at the foundry.

Changes of microstructure in alpha AgZn during post-deformation annealing after cold-rolling

The annealing processes of deformation-induced defects after cold-rolling to about 30 and 60% thickness reduction were investigated for Ag-21, 23, 28 at% Zn by means of residual electrical resistivity, microhardness, light microscopy and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) Three annealing stages have been detected and consistently interpreted as annealing-out of mainly point defects and their agglomerates (stage I), formation of dislocation cells and recrystallized strain-free grains (stage II) and grain growth (stage III). Further, it is tried to determine the evolution of defect production (point defects and dislocations) during rolling deformation from measured changes of electrical resistivity and microhardness. Copyright (C) 1996 Acta Metallurgica Inc.

Multi-Agent Framework for Spatial Load Forecasting

A multi-agent framework for spatial electric load forecasting, especially suited to simulate the different dynamics involved on distribution systems, is presented. The service zone is divided into several sub-zones, each subzone is considered as an independent agent identified with a corresponding load level, and their relationships with the neighbor zones are represented as development probabilities. With this setting, different kind of agents can be developed to simulate the growth pattern of the loads in distribution systems. This paper presents two different kinds of agents to simulate different situations, presenting some promissory results.

Transient flow of the oil-refrigerant mixture through the radial clearance in rolling piston compressors

Unsteady flow of oil and refrigerant gas through radial clearance in rolling piston compressors has been modeled as a heterogeneous mixture, where the properties are determined from the species conservation transport equation coupled with momentum and energy equations. Time variations of pressure, tangential velocity of the rolling piston and radial clearance due to pump setting have been included in the mixture flow model. Those variables have been obtained by modeling the compression process, rolling piston dynamics and by using geometric characteristics of the pump, respectively. An important conclusion concerning this work is the large variation of refrigerant concentration in the oil-filled radial clearance during the compression cycle. That is particularly true for large values of mass flow rates, and for those cases the flow mixture cannot be considered as having uniform concentration. In presence of low mass flow rates homogeneous flow prevail and the mixture tend to have a uniform concentration. In general, it was observed that for calculating the refrigerant mass flow rate using the difference in refrigerant concentration between compression and suction chambers, a time average value for the gas concentration should be used at the clearance inlet.

A fast electric load forecasting using neural networks

The objective of this work is the development of a methodology for electric load forecasting based on a neural network. Here, it is used Backpropagation algorithm with an adaptive process based on fuzzy logic. This methodology results in fast training, when compared to the conventional formulation of Backpropagation algorithm. Results are presented using data from a Brazilian Electric Company and the performance is very good for the proposal objective.

A fast electric load forecasting using adaptive neural networks

This work presents a procedure for electric load forecasting based on adaptive multilayer feedforward neural networks trained by the Backpropagation algorithm. The neural network architecture is formulated by two parameters, the scaling and translation of the postsynaptic functions at each node, and the use of the gradient-descendent method for the adjustment in an iterative way. Besides, the neural network also uses an adaptive process based on fuzzy logic to adjust the network training rate. This methodology provides an efficient modification of the neural network that results in faster convergence and more precise results, in comparison to the conventional formulation Backpropagation algorithm. The adapting of the training rate is effectuated using the information of the global error and global error variation. After finishing the training, the neural network is capable to forecast the electric load of 24 hours ahead. To illustrate the proposed methodology it is used data from a Brazilian Electric Company. © 2003 IEEE.

Towards forecasting and mitigating ionospheric scintillation effects on GNSS

The effect of the ionosphere on the signals of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), such as the Global Positionig System (GPS) and the proposed European Galileo, is dependent on the ionospheric electron density, given by its Total Electron Content (TEC). Ionospheric time-varying density irregularities may cause scintillations, which are fluctuations in phase and amplitude of the signals. Scintillations occur more often at equatorial and high latitudes. They can degrade navigation and positioning accuracy and may cause loss of signal tracking, disrupting safety-critical applications, such as marine navigation and civil aviation. This paper addresses the results of initial research carried out on two fronts that are relevant to GNSS users if they are to counter ionospheric scintillations, i.e. forecasting and mitigating their effects. On the forecasting front, the dynamics of scintillation occurrence were analysed during the severe ionospheric storm that took place on the evening of 30 October 2003, using data from a network of GPS Ionospheric Scintillation and TEC Monitor (GISTM) receivers set up in Northern Europe. Previous results [1] indicated that GPS scintillations in that region can originate from ionospheric plasma structures from the American sector. In this paper we describe experiments that enabled confirmation of those findings. On the mitigation front we used the variance of the output error of the GPS receiver DLL (Delay Locked Loop) to modify the least squares stochastic model applied by an ordinary receiver to compute position. This error was modelled according to [2], as a function of the S4 amplitude scintillation index measured by the GISTM receivers. An improvement of up to 21% in relative positioning accuracy was achieved with this technnique.

Spatial electric load forecasting using a local movement approach

An agent based model for spatial electric load forecasting using a local movement approach for the spatiotemporal allocation of the new loads in the service zone is presented. The density of electrical load for each of the major consumer classes in each sub-zone is used as the current state of the agents. The spatial growth is simulated with a walking agent who starts his path in one of the activity centers of the city and goes to the limits of the city following a radial path depending on the different load levels. A series of update rules are established to simulate the S growth behavior and the complementarity between classes. The results are presented in future load density maps. The tests in a real system from a mid-size city show a high rate of success when compared with other techniques. The most important features of this methodology are the need for few data and the simplicity of the algorithm, allowing for future scalability. © 2009 IEEE.

Vibration and oil analysis for monitoring problems related to water contamination in rolling

Trying to reduce particle contamination in lubrication systems, industries of the whole world spend millions of dollars each year on the improvement of filtration technology. In this context, by controlling fluid cleanliness, some companies are able to reduce failures rates up to 85 percent. However, in some industries and environments, water is a contaminant more frequently encountered than solid particles, and it is often seen as the primary cause of component failure. Only one percent of water in oil is enough to reduce life expectancy of a journal bearing by 80 percent. For rolling bearing elements, the situation is worse because water destroys the oil film and, under the extreme temperatures and pressures generated in the load zone of a rolling bearing element, free and emulsified water can result in instantaneous flash-vaporization giving origin to erosive wear. This work studies the effect of water as lubricant contaminant in ball bearings, which simulates a situation that could actually occur in real systems. In a designed bench test, three basic lubricants of different viscosities were contaminated with different contents of water. The results regarding oil and vibration analysis are presented for different bearing speeds.

Spatial load forecasting using a demand propagation approach

A method for spatial electric load forecasting using multi-agent systems, especially suited to simulate the local effect of special loads in distribution systems is presented. The method based on multi-agent systems uses two kinds of agents: reactive and proactive. The reactive agents represent each sub-zone in the service zone, characterizing each one with their corresponding load level, represented in a real number, and their relationships with other sub-zones represented in development probabilities. The proactive agent carry the new load expected to be allocated because of the new special load, this agent distribute the new load in a propagation pattern. The results are presented with maps of future expected load levels in the service zone. The method is tested with data from a mid-size city real distribution system, simulating the effect of a load with attraction and repulsion attributes. The method presents good results and performance. © 2011 IEEE.