68 resultados para probability indicator
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Some individuals of the species Arenaeus cribrarius (Lamarck, 1818) bear a characteristic pink abdomen, which is notably different from the usual white coloration. The incidence of this chromatic alteration was determined for a single population and its relation with other individual variables were examined. The individuals were monthly collected from May, 1991 to April, 1993, in Ubatuba, São Paulo, with the aid of a shrimp fishery boat provided with double-rig trawling nets. All specimens were sexed, measured (CW = carapace width), distributed in 10-mm size classes and classified according to growth phase (juvenile and adult), molting condition and development stage of gonads. The occurrence of pink-colored morphs was also recorded. From a total of 2,096 collected individuals, only 60 females (nine of those ovigerous) presented a pink-colored abdomen, which represents 2.9% of the whole sample and 5.2% of the females. Almost all of them were intermolt individuals (96.6%) and 63.3% showed mature gonads. According to published data, size at the onset of functional maturity in A. cribrarius females is around 60 mm CW, from which the incidence of pink morphs and ovigerous crabs were recorded. The obtained results suggest that such a chromatic alteration is associated to sexual maturity in these females. This characteristic may enhance the attraction potential for mating, shortly after the puberty molt.
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To estimate the heritability for the probability that yearling heifers would become pregnant, we analyzed the records of 11,487 Nellore animals that participated in breeding seasons at three farms in the Brazilian states of São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul. All heifers were exposed to a bull at the age of about 14 mo. The probability of pregnancy was analyzed as a categorical trait, with a value of 1 (success) assigned to heifers that were diagnosed pregnant by rectal palpation about 60 d after the end of the breeding season of 90 d and a value of 0 (failure) assigned to those that were not pregnant at that time. The estimate of heritability, obtained by Method 9, was 0.57 with standard error of 0.01. The EPD was predicted using a maximum a posteriori threshold method and was expressed as deviations from 50% probability. The range in EPD was -24.50 to 24.55%, with a mean of 0.78% and a SD of 7.46%. We conclude that EPD for probability of pregnancy can be used to select heifers with a higher probability of being fertile. However, it is mainly recommended for the selection of bulls for the production of precocious daughters because the accuracy of prediction is higher for bulls, depending on their number of daughters.
Analytical and Monte Carlo approaches to evaluate probability distributions of interruption duration
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Regulatory authorities in many countries, in order to maintain an acceptable balance between appropriate customer service qualities and costs, are introducing a performance-based regulation. These regulations impose penalties-and, in some cases, rewards-that introduce a component of financial risk to an electric power utility due to the uncertainty associated with preserving a specific level of system reliability. In Brazil, for instance, one of the reliability indices receiving special attention by the utilities is the maximum continuous interruption duration (MCID) per customer.This parameter is responsible for the majority of penalties in many electric distribution utilities. This paper describes analytical and Monte Carlo simulation approaches to evaluate probability distributions of interruption duration indices. More emphasis will be given to the development of an analytical method to assess the probability distribution associated with the parameter MCID and the correspond ng penalties. Case studies on a simple distribution network and on a real Brazilian distribution system are presented and discussed.
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The interaction of the xilenol orange and commercial disinfectant containing itself cationic-surfactant allowed the use indicator up to pH 11 by back-titration with EDTA, and the determination of total or partial concentration of metallic ions samples using the same indicator at the highest pH range.
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In most of the cases, the systems of water distribution from groundwater wells use electrical submersible pumps. All electrical energy is applied to the pumps; however, other components (pipes, valves, etc.) of these systems are also responsible by the higher or lower consumption of electric energy. The supervisors and operators of the systems should thus have knowledge of the global energetic behavior of the process in order to administrate it properly. This work suggests a 'Global Energetic Efficiency Indicator' for groundwater wells by using mathematical equations and neural networks. Simulation results will be presented in order to demonstrate the validity of the proposed approach.
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Five minute-averaged values of sky clearness, direct and diffuse indices, were used to model the frequency distributions of these variables in terms of optical air mass. From more than four years of solar radiation observations it was found that variations in the frequency distributions of the three indices of optical air mass for Botucatu, Brazil, are similar to those in other places, as published in the literature. The proposed models were obtained by linear combination of normalized Beta probability functions, using the observed distributions derived from three years of data. The versatility of these functions allows modelling of all three irradiance indexes to similar levels of accuracy. A comparison with the observed distributions obtained from one year of observations indicate that the models are able to reproduce the observed frequency distributions of all three indices at the 95% confidence level.
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Operator bases are discussed in connection with the construction of phase space representatives of operators in finite-dimensional spaces, and their properties are presented. It is also shown how these operator bases allow for the construction of a finite harmonic oscillator-like coherent state. Creation and annihilation operators for the Fock finite-dimensional space are discussed and their expressions in terms of the operator bases are explicitly written. The relevant finite-dimensional probability distributions are obtained and their limiting behavior for an infinite-dimensional space are calculated which agree with the well known results. (C) 1996 Academic Press, Inc.
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Two stochastic models have been fitted to daily rainfall data for an interior station of Brazil. Of these two models, the results show a better fit to describe the data, by truncated negative probability model in comparison with Markov chain probability model. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is applied for significance for these models. © 1983 Springer-Verlag.
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A method based on the use of resazurin (RSZ) is described to determine the number of viable Bradyrhizobium japonicum cells in culture medium. The observation of RSZ reduction can be done spectrophotometrically or visually. B. japonicum strains behaved differently when the reducing time was considered. This methodology can be used to determine the number of viable cells during the liquid culture stage of inoculant production.
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A methodology to define favorable areas in petroleum and mineral exploration is applied, which consists in weighting the exploratory variables, in order to characterize their importance as exploration guides. The exploration data are spatially integrated in the selected area to establish the association between variables and deposits, and the relationships among distribution, topology, and indicator pattern of all variables. Two methods of statistical analysis were compared. The first one is the Weights of Evidence Modeling, a conditional probability approach (Agterberg, 1989a), and the second one is the Principal Components Analysis (Pan, 1993). In the conditional method, the favorability estimation is based on the probability of deposit and variable joint occurrence, with the weights being defined as natural logarithms of likelihood ratios. In the multivariate analysis, the cells which contain deposits are selected as control cells and the weights are determined by eigendecomposition, being represented by the coefficients of the eigenvector related to the system's largest eigenvalue. The two techniques of weighting and complementary procedures were tested on two case studies: 1. Recôncavo Basin, Northeast Brazil (for Petroleum) and 2. Itaiacoca Formation of Ribeira Belt, Southeast Brazil (for Pb-Zn Mississippi Valley Type deposits). The applied methodology proved to be easy to use and of great assistance to predict the favorability in large areas, particularly in the initial phase of exploration programs. © 1998 International Association for Mathematical Geology.
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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The present work was carried out at the Faculdade de Ciências Agronômicas - UNESP, Botucatu, SP. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the physiological and biochemical behavior of sweet pepper (Capsicum annuum L.) plants under different soil water availability conditions and the efficiency of the peroxidase (EC. 1.11.1.7) activity as an indicator of water stress in plants. Sweet pepper plants were grown for 230 days after transplanting of seedlings. The experiment was arranged in a completely randomized experimental design with 4 treatments, two irrigation managements (50 and 1500 kPa) and two soil surface managements (presence or absence of black polyethylene covering), and six replications. Physiological activities, such as stomatal transpiration and resistance to water vapor diffusion, were evaluated, as well as biochemical activities, such as peroxidase activity and total soluble protein in foliar tissues. It was observed that soil water availability may lead to physiological and biochemical alterations in plants. Successive water stress cycles may promote the development of characteristics responsible for improving the plant tolerance to periods of low water availability. The peroxidase enzyme activity showed to be an efficient indicator of water stress in sweet pepper plants.
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The purpose of the study was to evaluate the physiological and biochemical behavior of sweet pepper (Capsicum annuum L.) plants under different soil water availability conditions and the efficiency of the peroxidase (EC. 1.11. 1.7) activity as an indicator of water stress in plants. The experiment was carried out at the Faculdade de Ciências Agronômicas UNESP, Botucatu, SP. Sweet pepper plants were grown for 230 days after transplanting of seedlings and arranged in a completely randomized experimental design with 4 treatments, two irrigation managements (50 and 1500 kPa) and two soil surface managements (presence or absence of black polyethylene covering), and six replications. Physiological activities, such as stomatal transpiration and resistance to water vapor diffusion, were evaluated as well as biochemical activities, such as peroxidase activity and total soluble protein in foliar tissues. It was observed that soil water availability may lead to physiological and biochemical alterations in plants. Successive water stress cycles may promote the development of characteristics responsible for improving plant tolerance to periods of low water availability. The peroxidase enzyme activity showed to be an efficient indicator of water stress in sweet pepper plants.
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)