43 resultados para estimating conditional probabilities


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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Knowledge about bird's heat stress is extensively discussed in the literature. From behavior data collected during the summer of 2000/2001 in an open-sided reduced scale model of a poultry barn, this study estimated the thermoneutral zone for female broiler breeders. The birds were electronically identified and the frequency of use of passage, indicating movement, and drinker, indicating thirst, where the antennas were placed, was recorded. Environmental data such as dry and wet bulb temperature were collected in the geometric center of the model and continuously registered by a datalogger. From the statistical analysis, it was possible to predict a real-time-based zone where the birds showed coherent behavior towards the use of the drinker and movement in the passage. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Fluoroindate glasses containing 1, 2, 3, and 4 mol% ErF3 were prepared in a dry box under an argon atmosphere. Absorption spectra of these glasses at room temperature were obtained. The Judd-Ofelt parameters Ωλ (λ = 2, 4, 6) for f-f transitions of Er3+ ions as well as transition probabilities, branching ratios, radiative lifetimes, and peak cross-sections for stimulated emission of each band were determined. The concentration effect on the intensities is analyzed. The optical properties of the fluoroindate glasses doped with Er3+ ions are compared with those of other glasses described in the literature. © 1995.

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This article describes a methodological approach to conditional reasoning in online asynchronous learning environments such as Virtual-U VGroups, developed by SFU, BC, Canada, consistent with the notion of meaning implication: If part of a meaning C is embedded in B and a part of a meaning B is embedded in A, then A implies C in terms of meaning [Piaget 91]. A new transcript analysis technique was developed to assess the flows of conditional meaning implications and to identify the occurrence of hypotheses and connections among them in two human science graduate mixed-mode online courses offered in the summer/spring session of 1997 by SFU. Flows of conditional meaning implications were confronted with Virtual-U VGroups threads and results of the two courses were compared. Findings suggest that Virtual-U VGroups is a knowledge-building environment although the tree-like Virtual-U VGroups threads should be transformed into neuronal-like threads. Findings also suggest that formulating hypotheses together triggers a collaboratively problem-solving process that scaffolds knowledge-building in asynchronous learning environments: A pedagogical technique and an built-in tool for formulating hypotheses together are proposed. © Springer Pub. Co.

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The estimation of the number of people in an area under surveillance is very important for the problem of crowd monitoring. When an area reaches an occupation level greater than the projected one, people's safety can be in danger. This paper describes a new technique for crowd density estimation based on Minkowski fractal dimension. Fractal dimension has been widely used to characterize data texture in a large number of physical and biological sciences. The results of our experiments show that fractal dimension can also be used to characterize levels of people congestion in images of crowds. The proposed technique is compared with a statistical and a spectral technique, in a test study of nearly 300 images of a specific area of the Liverpool Street Railway Station, London, UK. Results obtained in this test study are presented.

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The relative contribution of migration of Rhizoctonia solani anastomosis group 3 (AG-3) on infested potato seed tubers originating from production areas in Canada, Maine, and Wisconsin (source population) to the genetic diversity and structure of populations of R. solani AG-3 in North Carolina (NC) soil (recipient population) was examined. The frequency of alleles detected by multilocus polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphisms, heterozygosity at individual loci, and gametic phase disequilibrium between all pairs of loci were determined for subpopulations of R. solani AG-3 from eight sources of potato seed tubers and from five soils in NC. Analysis of molecular variation revealed little variation between seed source and NC recipient soil populations or between subpopulations within each region. Analysis of population data with a Bayesian-based statistical method previously developed for detecting migration in human populations suggested that six multilocus genotypes from the NC soil population had a statistically significant probability of being migrants from the northern source population. The one-way (unidirectional) migration of genotypes of R. solani AG-3 into NC on infested potato seed tubers from Canada, Maine, and Wisconsin provides a plausible explanation for the lack of genetic subdivision (differentiation) between populations of the pathogen in NC soils or between the northern source and the NC recipient soil populations.

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This paper is the result of real-scale physical modeling study designed to simulate the load-deformation characteristics of railroad foundation systems that include the railroad ties, the ballast, and the sub-base layers of a railroad embankment. The study presents comparisons of the application of dynamic loads of 100kN on the rails, and the resulting deformations during a 500,000 cycle testing period for three rail support systems; wood, concrete and steel. The results show that the deformation curve has an exponential shape, with the larger portion of the deformation occurring during the first 50,000 load cycles followed by a tendency to stabilize between 100,000 to 500,000 cycles. These results indicate that the critical phase of deformations of a new railroad is within the first 50,000 cycles of loading, and after that, it slowly attenuates as it approaches a stable value. The paper also presents empirically derived formulations for the estimation of the deformations of the rail supports as a result of rail traffic.

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The objective of this study was to develop and evaluate a mathematical model used to estimate the daily amino acid requirements of individual growing-finishing pigs. The model includes empirical and mechanistic model components. The empirical component estimates daily feed intake (DFI), BW, and daily gain (DG) based on individual pig information collected in real time. Based on DFI, BW, and DG estimates, the mechanistic component uses classic factorial equations to estimate the optimal concentration of amino acids that must be offered to each pig to meet its requirements. The model was evaluated with data from a study that investigated the effect of feeding pigs with a 3-phase or daily multiphase system. The DFI and BW values measured in this study were compared with those estimated by the empirical component of the model. The coherence of the values estimated by the mechanistic component was evaluated by analyzing if it followed a normal pattern of requirements. Lastly, the proposed model was evaluated by comparing its estimates with those generated by the existing growth model (InraPorc). The precision of the proposed model and InraPorc in estimating DFI and BW was evaluated through the mean absolute error. The empirical component results indicated that the DFI and BW trajectories of individual pigs fed ad libitum could be predicted 1 d (DFI) or 7 d (BW) ahead with the average mean absolute error of 12.45 and 1.85%, respectively. The average mean absolute error obtained with the InraPorc for the average individual of the population was 14.72% for DFI and 5.38% for BW. Major differences were observed when estimates from InraPorc were compared with individual observations. The proposed model, however, was effective in tracking the change in DFI and BW for each individual pig. The mechanistic model component estimated the optimal standardized ileal digestible Lys to NE ratio with reasonable between animal (average CV = 7%) and overtime (average CV = 14%) variation. Thus, the amino acid requirements estimated by model are animal- and time-dependent and follow, in real time, the individual DFI and BW growth patterns. The proposed model can follow the average feed intake and feed weight trajectory of each individual pig in real time with good accuracy. Based on these trajectories and using classical factorial equations, the model makes it possible to estimate dynamically the AA requirements of each animal, taking into account the intake and growth changes of the animal. © 2012 American Society of Animal Science. All rights reserved.

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More than 80% of the 29600 km of the Brazilian railroad mesh employs wooden sleepers. The problem of hard availability of native wood for this purpose leads to the alternative use of reforestation species to produce sleepers. Considering the great difficulty to, in field condition, evaluate characteristics that are of major importance to define its suitability to sleeper production the Research Group on Forest Products from FCA/UNESP - Brazil had developed equipment for field evaluation of hardness in wood - Portable Hardness Tester. This paper reports the functional validation tests, performed with different species of Eucalyptus. Results revealed the equipment great functionality, easy-to-use characteristics and applicability to Eucalyptus wood. Moderate to strong relationships between laboratory and validated values of hardness were found. The best validation model was obtained using the data provided by the experimental dispositive 3 (R2=0.74 and SSE= 7.71 kJ/m2) while the experimental dispositive 1 gave the worse validation (R2=0.55 and SSE= 13.46 kJ/m2).

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The wrist and hand region has been the most commonly used for estimating age and osseous development due to the great number of ossification centers. The aim was to determine which method, Tanner & Whitehouse's (TW3), Greulich & Pyle's (GP) or Eklof & Ringertz's, more closely relates to the chronological age in subjects with Down syndrome with chronological ages between 61 and 180 months, using wrist and hand radiographs. The sample consisted of 85 radiographs, 52 of males and 33 of females. Eklof & Ringertz's method was computerized (Radiomemory). Greulich & Pyle's atlas was used and compared with the wrist and hand radiographs. For the TW3 method, 13 ossification centers were evaluated; for each one of them, there are seven or eight development stages to which scores are assigned; these scores are then added and the results are transformed into osseous age values. No statistically significant differences were observed between the male and female genders for methods TW3 and GP, contrasting with the observed differences for the Eklof & Ringertz method. Correlation (r2) between osseous and chronological ages was 0.8262 for TW3 and 0.7965 for GP, while for the method of Eklof & Ringertz, it was 0.7656 for females and 0.8353 for males. The author concluded that the osseous age assessment method that better related to the chronological age was the TW3, followed by Greulich & Pyle's and Eklof & Ringertz's.

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Objective: To compare estimation of cardiovascular risk using the Framinghan Risk Score (FRS) and the presence of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) in postmenopausal women to prevent primary cardiovascular disease (CVD). Methods: This cross-sectional study included 497 Brazilian women (aged 45 years and amenorrhea >12months). Cardiovascular risk was calculated using the FRS that includes age, total cholesterol, HDL, systolic blood pressure and smoking status. Women showing three or more of the following criteria were diagnosed with MetS: waist circumference (WC) >88cm, blood pressure 130/85mmHg, triglycerides 150mg/dl, HDL<50mg/dl and glucose 100mg/dl. For statistical analysis, the Chi-square, Fisher's exact, and logistic regression (odds ratio-OR) were used. Results: The mean age was 55.3±7.0 years and time since menopause 7.2±5.9 years. Based on FRS, 72.4% of women were classified as low-risk, 16.5% moderate risk and 11.1% a high-risk. MetS was identified in 40% of the women, and 46.2% were considered of moderate risk for CVD, while 84.9% of those without MetS were classified as low-risk (p<0.001). The risk for CVD increased significantly with age at menopause (OR1.10; 95% CI, 1.04-1.17), time since menopause (OR1.13; 95% CI, 1.08-1.18), elevated triglycerides (OR1.03; 95% CI, 1.0-1.10) and presence of MetS (OR1.72; 95% CI 1.48-1.84). Conclusions: By using only FRS to estimate cardiovascular risk, a substantial number of postmenopausal women showing evidence of MetS were not identified, even though women with MetS are at higher risk of CVD. © 2013 Informa UK Ltd.

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Species richness and geographical distribution of Cyclopoida freshwater copepods were analyzed along the La Plata River basin. Ninety-six samples were taken from 24 sampling sites, twelve sites for zooplankton in open waters and twelve sites for zooplankton within macrophyte stands, including reservoirs and lotic stretches. There were, on average, three species per sample in the plankton compared to five per sample in macrophytes. Six species were exclusive to the plankton, 10 to macrophyte stands, and 17 were common to both. Only one species was found in similar proportions in plankton and macrophytes, while five species were widely found in plankton, and thirteen in macrophytes. The distinction between species from open water zooplankton and macrophytes was supported by nonmetric multidimensional analysis. There was no distinct pattern of endemicity within the basin, and double sampling contributes to this result. This lack of sub-regional faunal differentiation is in accordance with other studies that have shown that cyclopoids generally have wide geographical distribution in the Neotropics and that some species there are cosmopolitan. This contrasts with other freshwater copepods such as Calanoida and some Harpacticoida. We conclude that sampling plankton and macrophytes together provided a more accurate estimate of the richness and geographical distribution of these organisms than sampling in either one of those zones alone.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)