Spatial pattern of parasitism in Diatraea saccharalis Fab. (Lep., Crambidae) populations at two different spatial scales in sugarcane fields in Brazil

The biological control of Diatraea saccharalis is regarded as one of the best examples of successful classical biological control in Brazil. Since the introduction of the exotic parasitoid, Cotesia flavipes, the decrease in D. saccharalis infestation in sugarcane fields has been attributed to the effectiveness of this agent. Native Tachinidae fly parasitoids (Lydella minense and Paratheresia claripalpis) have also been implicated in the success. Quantitative data confirming the actual contribution of these agents to the control of D. saccharalis are, however, rather scant. The purpose of this study was to investigate the spatial pattern of parasitism of these parasitoids in D. saccharalis populations at two large spatial scales (fields and zones). To investigate this subject, a large data set comprising information collected from a sugarcane mill located in the state of São Paulo, Brazil (São João sugarcane mill) was analysed. When regressions between the proportion parasitism against host density were computed, the percentage of significant regressions with either a positive or a negative slope was very small at both spatial scales for both parasitoid species. Regressing the densities of tachinid-parasitized hosts against host densities per field showed that these parasitoids presented a 'moderate aggregative' response to host densities, as 53.33% of the regressions were positively significant. Cotesia flavipes was 'weakly aggregated' on host densities at the field level, because only 33.33% of the regressions were positively significant. At the zone level, neither aggregative nor spatial proportion parasitism responses were evident for either parasitoid species due to the small percentage of significant regressions computed.

Estimating abundance and spatial distribution patterns of the bubble crab Dotilla fenestrata (Crustacea : Brachyura)

The bubble crab Dotilla fenestrata forms very dense populations on the sand flats of the eastern coast of Inhaca Island, Mozambique, making it an interesting biological model to examine spatial distribution patterns and test the relative efficiency of common sampling methods. Due to its apparent ecological importance within the sandy intertidal community, understanding the factors ruling the dynamics of Dotilla populations is also a key issue. In this study, different techniques of estimating crab density are described, and the trends of spatial distribution of the different population categories are shown. The studied populations are arranged in discrete patches located at the well-drained crests of nearly parallel mega sand ripples. For a given sample size, there was an obvious gain in precision by using a stratified random sampling technique, considering discrete patches as strata, compared to the simple random design. Density average and variance differed considerably among patches since juveniles and ovigerous females were found clumped, with higher densities at the lower and upper shore levels, respectively. Burrow counting was found to be an adequate method for large-scale sampling, although consistently underestimating actual crab density by nearly half. Regression analyses suggested that crabs smaller than 2.9 mm carapace width tend to be undetected in visual burrow counts. A visual survey of sampling plots over several patches of a large Dotilla population showed that crab density varied in an interesting oscillating pattern, apparently following the topography of the sand flat. Patches extending to the lower shore contained higher densities than those mostly covering the higher shore. Within-patch density variability also pointed to the same trend, but the density increment towards the lowest shore level varied greatly among the patches compared.

Longitudinal distribution and lateral pattern of megalopal settlement and juvenile recruitment of Carcinus maenas (L.) (Brachyura, Portunidae) in the Mira River Estuary, Portugal

Settlement is a critical process in the life history of crabs, and thus affecting the abundance, distribution and structure of estuarine communities. The spatial pattern of settlement of megalopae of the shore crab Carcinus maenas along a longitudinal estuarine gradient (Mira River Estuary, Portugal) was examined, as well as its effects on the juvenile population. To measure megalopal settlement, four replicate collectors were deployed in six equally spaced stations along the estuarine axis. Juveniles were collected on the same locations with a quadrat randomly deployed on the substrate. To assess fine-scale megalopal settlement within a curved region of the estuary, replicate collectors were deployed on both margins along Moinho da Asneira curve. Megalopae settled differently along the six longitudinal points, with a tendency to attenuate their settlement upstream. Within the curved region, megalopae preferentially settled on the left margin collectors, probably due to the weaker velocity speeds felt on this margin. Concerning the overall juvenile density, there were significant differences among the stations distributed along the estuary, but they did no reflect a longitudinal dispersion attenuation pattern. Size-frequency distribution of the juvenile population showed that the average size is higher on the left margin. Recruits (carapace length between 1.0 mm and 3.4 mm) were more abundant on the upstream stations. Density of early juveniles (3.4 mm-6.5 mm) and juveniles (6.5 mm-10 mm) was more stable throughout the estuary axis than that of recruits. This distribution pattern may result from tidal excursion processes or mechanisms to avoid biotic interactions, such as predation and competition. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multi-Agent Simulation of Urban Social Dynamics for Spatial Load Forecasting

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Spatial Distribution of Seropositive Dogs to Leptospira spp. and Evaluation of Leptospirosis Risk Factors Using a Decision Tree

Background: Leptospirosis is an important zoonotic disease associated with poor areas of urban settings of developing countries and early diagnosis and prompt treatment may prevent disease. Although rodents are reportedly considered the main reservoirs of leptospirosis, dogs may develop the disease, may become asymptomatic carriers and may be used as sentinels for disease epidemiology. The use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) combined with spatial analysis techniques allows the mapping of the disease and the identification and assessment of health risk factors. Besides the use of GIS and spatial analysis, the technique of data mining, decision tree, can provide a great potential to find a pattern in the behavior of the variables that determine the occurrence of leptospirosis. The objective of the present study was to apply Geographical Information Systems and data prospection (decision tree) to evaluate the risk factors for canine leptospirosis in an area of Curitiba, PR.Materials, Methods & Results: The present study was performed on the Vila Pantanal, a urban poor community in the city of Curitiba. A total of 287 dog blood samples were randomly obtained house-by-house in a two-day sampling on January 2010. In addition, a questionnaire was applied to owners at the time of sampling. Geographical coordinates related to each household of tested dog were obtained using a Global Positioning System (GPS) for mapping the spatial distribution of reagent and non-reagent dogs to leptospirosis. For the decision tree, risk factors included results of microagglutination test (MAT) from the serum of dogs, previous disease on the household, contact with rats or other dogs, dog breed, outdoors access, feeding, trash around house or backyard, open sewer proximity and flooding. A total of 189 samples (about 2/3 of overall samples) were randomly selected for the training file and consequent decision rules. The remained 98 samples were used for the testing file. The seroprevalence showed a pattern of spatial distribution that involved all the Pantanal area, without agglomeration of reagent animals. In relation to data mining, from 189 samples used in decision tree, a total of 165 (87.3%) animal samples were correctly classified, generating a Kappa index of 0.413. A total of 154 out of 159 (96.8%) samples were considered non-reagent and were correctly classified and only 5/159 (3.2%) were wrongly identified. on the other hand, only 11 (36.7%) reagent samples were correctly classified, with 19 (63.3%) samples failing diagnosis.Discussion: The spatial distribution that involved all the Pantanal area showed that all the animals in the area are at risk of contamination by Leptospira spp. Although most samples had been classified correctly by the decision tree, a degree of difficulty of separability related to seropositive animals was observed, with only 36.7% of the samples classified correctly. This can occur due to the fact of seronegative animals number is superior to the number of seropositive ones, taking the differences in the pattern of variable behavior. The data mining helped to evaluate the most important risk factors for leptospirosis in an urban poor community of Curitiba. The variables selected by decision tree reflected the important factors about the existence of the disease (default of sewer, presence of rats and rubbish and dogs with free access to street). The analyses showed the multifactorial character of the epidemiology of canine leptospirosis.

Spatial variation in post-dispersal seed removal in an Atlantic forest: Effects of habitat, location and guilds of seed predators

Studies of post-dispersal seed removal in the Neotropics have rarely examined the magnitude of seed removal by different types of granivores. The relative impact of invertebrates, small rodents, and birds on seed removal was investigated in a 2,178 ha Atlantic forest fragment in southeastern Brazil. We used popcorn kernels (Zea mays-Poaceae) to investigate seed removal in a series of selective exclosure treatments in a replicated, paired design experiment that included forest understory, gaps, and forest edge sites. We recorded the vegetation around the experimental seed stations in detail in order to evaluate the influence of microhabitat traits on seed removal. Vertebrate granivores (rodents and birds) were surveyed to determine whether granivore abundance was correlated with seed removal levels. Seed removal varied spatially and in unpredictable ways at the study site. Seed encounter and seed use varied with treatments, but not with habitat type. However, seed removal by invertebrates was negatively correlated with gap-related traits, which suggested an avoidance of large gaps by granivorous ants. The abundance of small mammals was remarkably low, but granivorous birds (tinamous and doves) were abundant at the study site. Birds were the main seed consumers in open treatments, but there was no correlation between local granivorous bird abundance and seed removal. These results emphasize the stochastic spatial pattern of seed removal, and, contrary to previous studies, highlight the importance of birds as seed predators in forest habitats. (c) 2007 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Spatial distribution of nests of Nasutitermes sp (Isoptera : Termitidae) in a Cerrado area in southeastern Brazil

The density and aggregation patterns of nests of a species of Nasutitermes were determined in an area of 12,750 m(2). We found 131 nests in this area, and the distribution pattern was regular, with a density equaling 102.74 nests per hectare. Nest volume was determined from the height and diameter of 105 nests and varied from 1.59 to 192.46 dm(3). of the colonies, 70.5% had a volume below the mean value: 51.4% of these had volumes lower than 9 dm(3). Regression between the mean volumes and the distance of the 2 nearest nests was positive and significant (P < 0.001), suggesting competition between colonies.

Temporal patterns of parasitism in Diatraea saccharalis Fabr. (Lep., Crambidae) populations at different spatial scales in sugarcane fields in Brazil

Biological control of Diatraea saccharalis is regarded as one of the best examples of successful classical biological control in Brazil. Since the introduction of the exotic parasitoid, Cotesia flavipes, from Pakistan at the beginning of the 1970s, decrease in D. saccharalis infestation in sugarcane fields has been attributed to the effectiveness of this agent. Recently, the native Tachinidae fly parasitoids (Lydella minense and Paratheresia claripalpis) have also been implicated in this success. However, quantitative data confirming the actual contribution of these agents to the control of D. saccharalis are rather limited. The purpose of this study was to investigate the dynamics of the interactions between D. saccharalis and its parasitoids, emphasizing the temporal patterns of parasitism. To investigate this question, a large data set comprising information collected from two sugarcane mills located in the state of São Paulo, Brazil (Barra and Sao Joao sugarcane mills), was analysed. Basically, the data set contained monthly information about the number of D. saccharalis larvae and their parasitoids in each sample (man-hour per sample), the sugarcane varieties cultivated, the age of the sugarcane plants (only at the Sao Joao sugarcane mill) as well as the sugarcane cut at sampling time. The data were collected from March 1984 to March 1997 and from May 1982 to December 1996 for the Barra and Sao Joao sugarcane mills, respectively. Temporal inverse density-dependent parasitism was predominant for both parasitoid species with respect to all spatial scales. Although the temporal pattern of parasitism was not directly density dependent, it was evident that the tachinids and C. flavipes presented positive numerical responses according to variations in D. saccharalis densities through time.

Patterns of spatial distribution in macroalgal communities from tropical lotic ecosystems

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Behaviour of dispersion indices in pattern detection of a population of angico, Anadenanthera peregrina (Leguminosae)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Spatial patterns or trees in the Picinguara coastal sandy forest (state of Sao-Paulo, Brazil)

The species of the sandy plains forests (forests of the ''restingas'') have not yet had their spatial patterns studied as aids to the understanding of the diversity found in the different physiognomies along the Brazilian coast. In this paper a 10 x 10 m quadrat framework laid in a hectare of a tree dominant forest in the sandy plains of the Picinguaba area of the Serra do Mar State Park (municipality of Ubatuba, state of São Paulo, Brazil) was used to assess the spatial pattern of distribution for the ten most important species : Pera glabrata, Euterpe edulis, Eugenia brasiliensis, Alchornea triplinervea, Guatteria australis, Myrcia racemosa, Jacaranda semiserrata, Guarea macrophylla, Euplassa cantareirae and Nectandra oppositifolia. The spatial patterns were inferred through the calculations of their T-Square Index (C) and Dispersal Distance Index (I). P. glabrata shows a random pattern, E. edulis aggregate, E. brasiliensis, A. triplinervia, G. australis, E. cantareirae and N. oppositifolia with a tendency between aggregate and uniform and, M. racemosa, J. semiserrata and G. macrophylla between aggregate and random. Although the indexes are dependent of the sample size and of the technique adjustments, the relationship of the pattern with the environmental factors is shown by clustering methods. The results give confirmation of how the spatial patterns bring associations between populations and shape of the vegetation physiognomy.

SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION OF MORPHOMETRIC VARIATION IN LUTOSA-BRASILIENSIS (BRUNNER VONWATTENWYL, 1888) (ORTHOPTERA, GRYLLACRIDOIDEA, HENICIDAE)

Geographic differentiation and sexual dimorphism in eighteen morphometric characters of Lutosa brasiliensis (Orthoptera: Henicidae) collected in eight localities of the State of São Paulo (Brazil) were analysed. A two-way Multivariate Analysis of Variance (MONOVA) was used to assess simultaneously the effects of sex and geographic location (plus their interaction) on morphometric variability. The spatial patterns of variation were analysed by Factor and Spatial Autocorrelation Analyses (Moran's I coefficient in four distance classes). Both indicate that the main direction of variation is, for males and females, a north-south cline in overall body size. In females, however, ovipositor length is not correlated with overall body size and displays a different pattern of variation over geographic space, indicating that distinct evolutionary forces produced the geographic differentiation in the species.

GEOGRAPHIC-VARIATION IN APIS-CERANA-INDICA F - A SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION ANALYSIS OF MORPHOMETRIC PATTERNS

Spatial patterns of morphometric variation in Apis cerana indica were analysed. Factor and spatial autocorrelation analyses were applied to 29 characters, measured in 17 populations in India. Correlograms showed that 15 characters are patterned geographically, and 13 of them are related to overall size. These characters are distributed as a north-south cline, probably reflecting adaptations to environmental conditions. However, the great number of characteristics without geographical pattern suggests that part of the morphometric variability is due to local stochastic divergences.

Colonization pattern of Cecropia by Azteca ants: Influence of plant ontogeny, environment and host plant choice by queens

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Multi-Agent Framework for Spatial Load Forecasting

A multi-agent framework for spatial electric load forecasting, especially suited to simulate the different dynamics involved on distribution systems, is presented. The service zone is divided into several sub-zones, each subzone is considered as an independent agent identified with a corresponding load level, and their relationships with the neighbor zones are represented as development probabilities. With this setting, different kind of agents can be developed to simulate the growth pattern of the loads in distribution systems. This paper presents two different kinds of agents to simulate different situations, presenting some promissory results.